Thinking of going Pro. Looking for feedback from those who made the switch.

Alright, to get started, I've heard "the talk" on how it's not generally a good idea and is a pipe dream etc. etc., so we can fast forward past this point.

Now, on to some background and numbers.

I currently work as a software engineer and am a very bright guy; always excelled in all strategy & board games; gifted when it comes to math and patterns; and have extensive knowledge of psychology and tells. These skills make me very good at poker.

I am quitting my job in 2 weeks because I am relocating to another part of the country. I'm not quite sure what I am going to be doing for work right off the bat, but I have a decent amount of savings (wouldn't have to work for half a year if I didn't want to), and I know I can get a job in my field with minimal effort if I wanted to.

I've been going to my local casino almost every weekend for the last month as I was trying to put myself to the test, and I have been winning with a consistency which is actually starting to scare me, because it's convincing me that this is something I can actually do.

I've only played in casinos a handful of times at this point. I spent 5 days in Vegas half a year ago during which I lost $700, but learned an immense amount about the game from playing skilled opponents. After I returned from the trip, I went to my local casino 6 times. I came out ahead every time, and my profitability has been growing at an almost geometric rate as I am contentiously plugging leaks in my game and am generally advancing my skills.

I've attached a plot of the results and you can see them in the attached image - but, I made over $1000 during my last session.

So, those of you who decided to make poker your day job - what advice can you give me? Do the numbers imply that I can actually make a good living playing poker? If you've been doing this for a while, does the life-style become un-enjoyable at some point?

P.S., all of this is playing 1/2 NL cash game.

Well i am not a pro (obviously) but in my opinion I think you should stick with a day job for the moment. You said that you have enough money saved up to live a half of a year without working, but i don't think that that is a very safe route to take. Judging by your graph i can tell that you are a very talented player but before you turn pro, i would try to save up some more money as a safe guard just in case you run into some bad luck Or try maintain a job on the side just in case poker starts to not work out for you.

OMG 18 hour session??? Well the only thing I can say is study and try and learn even when you think you know it all. It seems like you are well off, and know the game very well. Good Luck to you, and keep us updated on how you do!

ok well first off that sample size is nothing. I've heard live 30 hands/hour (a hand every 2 minutes) is a good estimate, and that would be 1260 hands for you. I've had upswings and downswings that last 10 times that, and the real online pros have break-even stretches of 100 times that.

Secondly, still assuming 30 hands/hour, you're running at 41+ PTBB/100. I don't believe this winrate is actually sustainable.

The big question though at any time is can you handle the downswings. Can you handle an entire week of poker where you do everything right and still end up down $2k? Can you continue to play your best and put in the hours even when you're losing?

Personally I think $1/$2 live is just way too low to make a living, I just don't think a good enough winrate is achievable by even the best. You seem to be on a hot run as well, and if you think this is average, you're going to have a hard enough time when it starts evening out, let alone when the downswing hits.

I'm not the pro you're looking for, but I think you're going to need to play higher limits to make a living live. Not positive, what do I know? Maybe you're amazing and you've found a game where all the fish enjoy giving money away. But even then the variance will be sick and you'll have to handle the downswings. Can you handle them? Only you can answer that one.

zachvac said:

But even then the variance will be sick and you'll have to handle the downswings. Can you handle them? Only you can answer that one.

Click to expand...

Only one way to find out, I suppose. I'll know when I hit the down-swing.

I decided the following: I am going to set my starting "pro" bank-roll at $3,000. I am going to set my daily max loss at $1000.

If I blow through my bank roll (worst case being 3 terrible sessions in a row), then I will quit.

I am going back this weekend. We'll see how I do...

P.S. - I am not talking about being an "online pro". While I started out playing mostly online while learning the math of the game, now I only play the game in person because I believe that being able to interact and get reads on your opponents is a huge part of the game and gives me a tremendous advantage.

Everything Zach said.

And playing full time is not all it's cracked up to be especially if you're not making substantially more than you would be if you had a job. The stress is unreal and the amount of work required far exceeds what you would put in at a real job.

Eugenius said:

Only one way to find out, I suppose. I'll know when I hit the down-swing.

I decided the following: I am going to set my starting "pro" bank-roll at $3,000. I am going to set my daily max loss at $1000.

If I blow through my bank roll (worst case being 3 terrible sessions in a row), then I will quit.

I am going back this weekend. We'll see how I do...

P.S. - I am not talking about being an "online pro". While I started out playing mostly online while learning the math of the game, now I only play the game in person because I believe that being able to interact and get reads on your opponents is a huge part of the game and gives me a tremendous advantage.

Click to expand...

I'm sure quality of players has something to do with it as well, as 1/2 online is so much tougher than live 1/2. While this along with what you've mentioned may help you, lack of hands hurt you. Basically assuming 30 hands/hour, I play around as many hands every hour as you do in a 40-hour week. This means that even if you have a much bigger edge you still are going to have a tough time making it hourly. I just don't think ~40 PTBB/100 is possible at $1/$2 live, despite how bad the players are or how good you are. I'm certainly not trying to rag on you or anything, I know nothing about you, and I certainly hope you do make it, but if you really want to think about going pro I would suggest moving up a few levels. I'm pretty sure from what I've read pretty much $5/$10 NL is the bare minimum live for playing professionally. But then I've never set foot into a casino yet so by all means if you think you can do it take a shot, I just don't want you to think that the last 42 hours of play are indicative of how well you'll do in the future. It's a small sample size and any time you feel you are consistently winning, you are most likely on an upswing.

How do you explain "upswings" and "downswings" other than just "luck", if the player's skill remains consistant?

One more thing, the casino where I play uses the "Poker Pro" tables (google it if you don't know what they are) - which are the automated poker tables with no dealer, but all opponents still sit facing each-other. Since the dealer and chip counting is automated out of the equation, it really speeds up the game, since the hands come almost at the speed of an online table. While you can't play multiple tables like online, it's probably at least 20-25% faster than play with physical cards & chips.

Eugenius said:

How do you explain "upswings" and "downswings" other than just "luck", if the player's skill remains consistant?

Click to expand...

here it is Eugenius, lets say you consistanly get your money in as a 70/30 favorite every session for all your chips (sometimes you im sure will have a bigger edge)

this still means you will lose 30% of those times have this happen twice in a row or more and you're still making the right decisions just losing.

you will go on streaks where your 70/30 edge feels like a 90/10 disadvantage

it happens to everyone and if you're able to handle swings you'll be much more succesful

well, poker in general can profitable enough to not require a job to earn income. I'd recommend working less at your job to squeeze in more time to play poker.

I quit my job and moved part time to another employer and am doing just fine.... despite not really moving anywhere in terms of poker profit.
Do what you think is right. Move into playing pro slowly.

Eugenius said:

One more thing, the casino where I play uses the "Poker Pro" tables (google it if you don't know what they are) - which are the automated poker tables with no dealer, but all opponents still sit facing each-other. Since the dealer and chip counting is automated out of the equation, it really speeds up the game, since the hands come almost at the speed of an online table. While you can't play multiple tables like online, it's probably at least 20-25% faster than play with physical cards & chips.

Click to expand...

oh ok, this significantly changes things. You're probably playing over twice the speed I figured, so that means only ~15 PTBB/100, which is actually possibly sustainable against horrible players.

Still not a great living though. You can probably scrape by but remember for every 40 hours you're working, all the guys with office jobs are taking an hour a day off for lunch, a few hours talking with co-workers, no real stress to be focused every single moment they're at work. Not so with you. So if you really want to put in the time and the effort to make less than you probably could with a real job, and think you can handle the downswings and still play your A game, then you've got a shot. I could personally never do it, I'd need to make far more money and/or work less hours. But at least with this information your goal does seem a lot more possible. If you really want it, I say take a shot.

You've got the money, can get another job, so worst case scenario you fail and get a real job. Best case scenario, you enjoy it and make a living doing something you actually love. So imo take the shot. I'd say the odds are still against you, but who cares when the reward is so much better than the virtually non-existent risk.

o noooooo

get a life cmon

Eugenius said:

How do you explain "upswings" and "downswings" other than just "luck", if the player's skill remains consistant?

Click to expand...

Its called variance in yr lingo, and lacking bankroll management playing with zip, you are headed for disaster!

Hey Eugenius I wish you the best with this and you will always have something to fall back on if this endeavor fails, but good luck with it and keep us posted on how things are going.

Aloha

Makwa said:

get a life cmon

Click to expand...

This post is a bit uncalled for.

Well, one other important angle is that I love playing poker, and I don't enjoy sitting in a cube 9-5... so if I can get paid for doing something I enjoy...

Makwa said:

Its called variance in yr lingo, and lacking bankroll management playing with zip, you are headed for disaster!

Click to expand...

Did you read the post? His "disaster" would be getting a real job. Your solution to avoid that is... get a real job?

zachvac said:

This post is a bit uncalled for.

Click to expand...

I agree ZV, lets all encourage and not discourage a fellow member

zachvac said:

This post is a bit uncalled for.

Click to expand...

Heh, he's just an internet bully with nothing constructive to add. I admin on a different forum and know the type.

Eugenius said:

Well, one other important angle is that I love playing poker, and I don't enjoy sitting in a cube 9-5... so if I can get paid for doing something I enjoy...

Click to expand...

Right, it's just important that you still enjoy it after a week of losing 2k, and still having to put in all the time. Most people don't respond well to working without a reward, and to work and lose money would be extremely tough mentally for most people. And all you could was continue playing the same you were before.

zachvac said:

Did you read the post? His "disaster" would be getting a real job. Your solution to avoid that is... get a real job?

Click to expand...

No, my suggestion is to get a life. If you want to survive by playing poker, that's too bad... stay in school maybe? Any other interests?

This poster (Eugenius) has no record or skills that demonstrate he can make it for a living. If he did he sure would not be posting here. Any numbers he discussed are not statiscally significant. You need numbers in the hundreds or thousands of his sample to show any real indication.

I encourage everyone to make the most of their poker life, but don't stake your life on it. Even if you can pay the rent over your lifetime, you are glued to a screen or stuck to a seat the rest of your life, and as Amarillo Slim says, you can make the same selling hot dogs.

You guys enourage each other all you like, and quit your next job. Next.

Eugenius said:

Heh, he's just an internet bully with nothing constructive to add. I admin on a different forum and know the type.

Click to expand...

Heh, he's an Internet idiot, I know the type.

Makwa said:

No, my suggestion is to get a life. If you want to survive by playing poker, that's too bad... stay in school maybe?

This one has no record or skills that demonstrate he can make it for a living. If he did he sure would not be posting here.

I enourage everyone to make the most of their poker pife, but don't stake your life on it. Even if you win, you are glued to a screen or stuck to a seat the rest of your life, and as Amarillo Slim says, you can make the same selling hot dogs.

Click to expand...

Some fallacies in your statement:

1. I have a pretty fun life. I race motorcycles, make good money, have started a successful business in the past and may start a new one soon (while subsidizing myself with poker).

2. I came here to consult with other poker players because none of my friends are as captivated by the game as I am, an the internet provides a good way to consult the poker community. I'm not sure how that implies the lack of a life.

3. Suggesting that someone should "get a life" while posting lolcat pictures on the internet is a rather ironic move, wouldn't you say?

Eugenius said:

Some fallacies in your statement:

1. I have a pretty fun life. I race motorcycles, make good money, have started a successful business in the past and may start a new one soon (while subsidizing myself with poker).

2. I came here to consult with other poker players because none of my friends are as captivated by the game as I am, an the internet provides a good way to consult the poker community. I'm not sure how that implies the lack of a life.

3. Suggesting that someone should "get a life" while posting lolcat pictures on the internet is a rather ironic move, wouldn't you say?

Click to expand...

Sorry.
Race bikes all u like and have a good one, I simply suggest that 'going pro' in poker is not a realistic life for 99% of peeps. Do you like the bugs in hotel rooms?
You should like this community, there is a lot to learn about poker here.
By 'get a life' I mean be realistic about your assumptions, after a very short career, about how things will go for you in poker for a living. Sry you dislike cats, but I found this recent pic of you trying to multitask: