Surviving the Bubble

#1 19th January 2009, 1:52 AM

Hello all,
I wondering if anyone has any advise on how to survive the bubble. I used to play the same style of poker, but I find myself sometimes busting out before I place. What I do now is basically not play any hands until a place. The kinda works, but I feel like I'm hurting my chances of actually winning the whole thing.

Chap

#2 19th January 2009, 3:07 AM

I bubbled in this afternoon. I was last on list and got some lucky breaks and a few brazen steals. Nice freeroll won eneough chips to go again I was broke now I am in Micro Heaven.

#3 19th January 2009, 3:12 AM

Try not to pop, but to pop the bubble.

This is a good time to acc chips, because osme players are scared to go out.

#4 19th January 2009, 3:26 AM

Find the players who are playing scared and trying to survive and attack them...steal blinds! Autofolding can lead to making the money but can lead to certain death just inside the bubble

#5 19th January 2009, 3:35 AM

Just play your game, make a small adjustment for the scared people and the uber-aggressives but don't stray too far from the way you play. Once you start doing things you don't really feel comfortable with you're gonna make a mistake.

Besides, if you're only trying to make the money you could just coast in. If you want to win you can take advantage of the other people who are playing based on the bubble.

#6 19th January 2009, 3:53 AM

If you continue to play smart, solid poker & not overly aggressive ..around the bubble most are playing scared & will fold easy..just beware the trap hands & playing out of position..

Good luck @ the tables

#7 19th January 2009, 4:07 AM

First of all if you just want to place in some winnings be however small they are, just don't go all-in. Keep playing your hands as you normally would and you'll find yourself stealing some blinds or winning a couple hands. 1 or 2 hands is all it takes usally when your down to the 3 or 5 near the bubble. Not to mention the big stacks ahead of you are constantly fighting it out still and getting knock out moving you up in the process. Watch the tables of the last few who are around the bubble. This might give you an idea of how much you can fold or have to call. I find this helps me a lot when I'm lagging behind and not near the top.

#8 19th January 2009, 5:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chapstick

Hello all,
I wondering if anyone has any advise on how to survive the bubble. I used to play the same style of poker, but I find myself sometimes busting out before I place. What I do now is basically not play any hands until a place. The kinda works, but I feel like I'm hurting my chances of actually winning the whole thing.

Chap

Haha!!

Well just survive it!!

I think it's OK to attack the scared players but that's also the surest way of finishing before the bubble if you don't have the stack (which doesn't mean it's necessarily a bad thing if you're in it to win it). But that's not really the right advice for someone who wants to "survive the bubble", it's more like the right advice for someone who want's to benefit from the bubble.

I wouldn't try to steal too much blinds just before the bubble if you're short stacked especially not from the bigger stacks.

If you're big stack be very aggressive and steal a lot of blinds. Put the short stacks in front of a situation where they think "have I just spent 3h just end up with nothing".

But to come back to your question, how to survive the bubble, you've already answered it: Don't play any hand. Not that this is best way to play, but that's definitely the way to survive the bubble.

Most experts say that you should not tighten up before the bubble and that's the best time to play aggressively and bluff/play position. Sadly I don't listen to them and that's why I'm still a bum!!!

I have a 31% ITM rate in MTTs (27% for MTTs over 180 players) so believe me I know how to survive the bubble, I practically invented the concept!! I tighten up so much that I miss the bigger picture which is to make big bucks!! Maybe one day I'll understand. In the meantime I grind out a living from poker while listening to the experts tell me I have a small d1ck!!

However what you can do to still have a big chance of making the money without going into auto fold (which is what I do cos, like you, I'm obsessed with making the money):
- Tighten up: Play less marginal hands like KQ, KJ or A9 or speculative hands like small PPs and suited connectors which may require you to bleed some chips on the flop). Don't shy away from big hands though. If you lose with them then so be it!!
- Avoid calling especially raises (and that's an advice I would give in poker in general). If you think you are gonna race, just avoid it and fold. Only call raises with premium hands.
- Try to control the size of the pot. It means you can still lose hands without losing a significant part of your stack. Stuff like checking draws, not pushing with good but beatable stuff and so on. If you think the guy's on a flush draw and will (wrongly) call your all in, even if this is what you want, dont do it. He might have bad odds to call you on a draw but that's a matter for the long run, not this tournament. After a while trying different things you'll get a hang of pot size control.
- Don't bluff although you can still do "small ball" bluffs (putting small bets as bluffs if you don't think anyone has anything). But don't do big bluffs which are do or die ones!
- Raise your hands only ifyour position is good. If you keep raising in early position, you stand more of a chance that your raise will be re-raised or called. You may have to end your tourney here if that's what you do. You may consider folding some good hands in early position too (like A10 UTG which you would normally raise 3 or 4 times BB)
- Only steal blinds if you really need to and ONLY if your position is good.
- Consider raising small or not at all, avoiding preflop all ins.
- If you are close to the bubble, stall for time using the maximum time allowed to play.
- Avoid re-raising all in, even if that's what you should do (for instance with AQ or AJ from a loose player raising every other hand). If he is so loose he will likely call and the end you're likely to only be 60%-70% likely to win (if you have the best hand) so losing here is a reall possibility. But you should be able to adapt to the situation. If you've seen this loose aggressive player fold when re-raised all in, you can consider it, he will probably fold and raise the next hand.

That should allow you to still play and not crash out before the bubble. That's what I do if I really wanna cash. You'll essentially be playing an uber-tight game for a while.

Note that this is a strategy to survive the bubble and I am by no means saying this a is how you should play poker all the time. That's up to you, but if you wanna cash, that's the way to do it.

Obviously if you have a big stack, those don't apply, you'll probably make the bubble regarless so play your best game. However you may want to avoid confrontation with the other big stacks. Again that's the way to survive.

#9 19th January 2009, 6:43 AM

if you play scared you might not even make the money, but if you do, you certainly won't get much further. the best strategy is definitely playing aggressively. of course, it helps to have a big chip lead at your table, but even if not, you can't be afraid to go out.

#10 19th January 2009, 1:31 PM

The experts will tell you that trying to limp into the money is pointless. Their aim is the final table and preferably a top 3 finish. The money there far outweighs the little you might win just outlasting the bubble.

For beginners, that is a really tough strategy to follow, especially if they have never or rarely reached the money. I still have problems with this even though I know better.

#11 19th January 2009, 6:52 PM

Agress in the right position. If theres like 3 ppl in the hand checking the turn and river and its checked to you in the middle, try betting a nice bet on it to steal, around the bubble is when ppl are most likely to fold. Or if its folded to you preflop and you catch yourself heads up with BB with a high face card, raise 3 or 4x to keep stealing.

#12 20th January 2009, 1:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RogueRivered

The experts will tell you that trying to limp into the money is pointless. Their aim is the final table and preferably a top 3 finish. The money there far outweighs the little you might win just outlasting the bubble.

For beginners, that is a really tough strategy to follow, especially if they have never or rarely reached the money. I still have problems with this even though I know better.

The experts are right if your goal is to make the big bucks. That only comes from hitting final tables. And the guys that hit final tables feast on the weak at bubble time.

If yo uare a beginner and just like the idea of cashing... then sure, play to cash. If the money you would make from a min cash is THAT important to you then you are probably playing over your roll. Big fiedl sattellites might make sense for beginners and such as they play much like a regular MTT until the bubble... and post bubble you all get paid the same anyway.

But once you've played a few, go the other way. If yo uare playing alot you will make far more with one deep cash then 100 min cashes.

Figure out who the table bully is..and fight back. They are mor likely to leave you alone, and you can likely geta healthy portion of their chips in doing so if yo uactually have a hand.. since they won't.

Here's an example. I was playing th eFull Tilt Million last night. As we neared the bubble I got switched tables and noticed teh guy to my left had an avatar with a gold football jersey---which I know is only given to players that won one of their FTOPS events - so the guy is a stud.

He min-raised every single hand from 25 out of the bubble into the money if it was folded to him- even if he was UTG. It took about 2 hands for me to realize what he was doing--- and while I am sure everyone else knew too, most hands he took the blinds and antes uncontested. I chipped up nicely by calling from teh blind on him or re-raising with nothing. The on hand where he was UTG and I called in teh BB and hit top pair, he led ou on K high flop, I called. He lead turn, i riaseed, he folded, I got some nice chips.

THe point is, espcially if it's acheap buyin and you have any kind of stack.. open up before the bubble and get wider as you reach it.... target the medium stacks. Big stacks can play with you and shorties might shove . And FEAST on the people playing to cash. You can sometimes as much as double your stack here..and what you really want is the big money at the end. WHy play 4 hours in a $10 tourney to get $15 back?

#13 20th January 2009, 2:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chapstick

Hello all,
I wondering if anyone has any advise on how to survive the bubble. I used to play the same style of poker, but I find myself sometimes busting out before I place. What I do now is basically not play any hands until a place. The kinda works, but I feel like I'm hurting my chances of actually winning the whole thing.

Chap

For me the bubble can work good or bad for you. If you keep losing more when you are on the bubble you should change the way you play. Remember the goal is to actually place and possibly win the tournament.

Sometimes I will wait for very strong hands before I even call on the bubble because people do some stupid things on the bubble. like play 2 7 suited all in

#14 20th January 2009, 3:17 AM

Just make sure you get your money when it is appropriate. Never chase or get too involved in a hand if you are not certain on the hand. The circumstances vary but I wish you best of luck : )

#15 20th January 2009, 3:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlunderCity

Haha!!

Well just survive it!!

I think it's OK to attack the scared players but that's also the surest way of finishing before the bubble if you don't have the stack (which doesn't mean it's necessarily a bad thing if you're in it to win it). But that's not really the right advice for someone who wants to "survive the bubble", it's more like the right advice for someone who want's to benefit from the bubble.

I wouldn't try to steal too much blinds just before the bubble if you're short stacked especially not from the bigger stacks.

If you're big stack be very aggressive and steal a lot of blinds. Put the short stacks in front of a situation where they think "have I just spent 3h just end up with nothing".

But to come back to your question, how to survive the bubble, you've already answered it: Don't play any hand. Not that this is best way to play, but that's definitely the way to survive the bubble.

Most experts say that you should not tighten up before the bubble and that's the best time to play aggressively and bluff/play position. Sadly I don't listen to them and that's why I'm still a bum!!!

I have a 31% ITM rate in MTTs (27% for MTTs over 180 players) so believe me I know how to survive the bubble, I practically invented the concept!! I tighten up so much that I miss the bigger picture which is to make big bucks!! Maybe one day I'll understand. In the meantime I grind out a living from poker while listening to the experts tell me I have a small d1ck!!

However what you can do to still have a big chance of making the money without going into auto fold (which is what I do cos, like you, I'm obsessed with making the money):
- Tighten up: Play less marginal hands like KQ, KJ or A9 or speculative hands like small PPs and suited connectors which may require you to bleed some chips on the flop). Don't shy away from big hands though. If you lose with them then so be it!!
- Avoid calling especially raises (and that's an advice I would give in poker in general). If you think you are gonna race, just avoid it and fold. Only call raises with premium hands.
- Try to control the size of the pot. It means you can still lose hands without losing a significant part of your stack. Stuff like checking draws, not pushing with good but beatable stuff and so on. If you think the guy's on a flush draw and will (wrongly) call your all in, even if this is what you want, dont do it. He might have bad odds to call you on a draw but that's a matter for the long run, not this tournament. After a while trying different things you'll get a hang of pot size control.
- Don't bluff although you can still do "small ball" bluffs (putting small bets as bluffs if you don't think anyone has anything). But don't do big bluffs which are do or die ones!
- Raise your hands only ifyour position is good. If you keep raising in early position, you stand more of a chance that your raise will be re-raised or called. You may have to end your tourney here if that's what you do. You may consider folding some good hands in early position too (like A10 UTG which you would normally raise 3 or 4 times BB)
- Only steal blinds if you really need to and ONLY if your position is good.
- Consider raising small or not at all, avoiding preflop all ins.
- If you are close to the bubble, stall for time using the maximum time allowed to play.
- Avoid re-raising all in, even if that's what you should do (for instance with AQ or AJ from a loose player raising every other hand). If he is so loose he will likely call and the end you're likely to only be 60%-70% likely to win (if you have the best hand) so losing here is a reall possibility. But you should be able to adapt to the situation. If you've seen this loose aggressive player fold when re-raised all in, you can consider it, he will probably fold and raise the next hand.

That should allow you to still play and not crash out before the bubble. That's what I do if I really wanna cash. You'll essentially be playing an uber-tight game for a while.

Note that this is a strategy to survive the bubble and I am by no means saying this a is how you should play poker all the time. That's up to you, but if you wanna cash, that's the way to do it.

Obviously if you have a big stack, those don't apply, you'll probably make the bubble regarless so play your best game. However you may want to avoid confrontation with the other big stacks. Again that's the way to survive.

I actually this is the right move. I was looking for validation more than anything. I use this strategy and I'm pretty happy with it. I totally think the pros were wrong in this issue, but who am I to say the pros are wrong.

chap

#16 20th January 2009, 5:22 AM

Well the pros are not wrong, it's just that they have a different perspective on things, different goals. They play to make the big time big bucks. I play to make a grand a month regular with the occasional blowout win.

#17 20th January 2009, 6:57 AM

i agree that most people should try to take advantage of the tighter play around the bubble, but it's not always that easy, obviously. i try to play more aggressive here, especially when my stack is medium or short, but it seems like a lot of the time, my bluffs don't work for whatever reason. even moving all in i'm usually called by anyone with a pair it seems. i guess i need to re-evaluate how i play, and make adjustments.

#18 20th January 2009, 7:10 AM

Take advantage of the bubble and bet. By the time the excitement is all over you will be in the bubble and with a stack to last to the final table

#19 20th January 2009, 7:12 AM

you should wait till you get a really really strong hand ACE K or pocket a's maybe even KK (But dont raise till you see a flop)...once you get a hand like those take advantage.till then just relax

#20 21st January 2009, 1:32 AM

So.. you're saying don't do anything and wait for good luck to come knock at the door?

I might be willing to do that depending on whether I'm in the mood or what my table looks like. There's quite a few ways to get into the bubbe but the number one is as usual : Don't make a mistake. The situation changes everytime you get a couple new hole cards so don't go flat and just do the same thing everytime, cause poker takes a lifetime to master, Don't ya know.

#21 21st January 2009, 1:51 AM

i really love playing the hyper-turbo satellites on pokerstars....theyre the easiest cashes ever and they really make you be more agressive. From playing in those I've learned that you cant let anybody know youre scared...play aggressive or just keep playing your game...dont change a thing.

#22 21st January 2009, 2:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HalifaxLeafs

If you continue to play smart, solid poker & not overly aggressive ..around the bubble most are playing scared & will fold easy..just beware the trap hands & playing out of position..

I don't know what it is but lately I have bubbled sooooo many times. And when I do try to steal I always seem to get caught in the trap hands!!!!! It's driving me nuts!

#23 22nd January 2009, 2:00 AM

OK, I'll give 3 situations for comments:

29 people left, you're in 26, cash at 27
29 people left, you're in 18, cash at 27
29 people left, you're in 5, cash at 27

#24 22nd January 2009, 2:54 AM

I use to ask myself the same question...."I got so close and how did I not make it"? I finally realized that the reason I got there (most of the time) was becasue of bad decisions in my play. I raised too much, called to much, did not read the board properly, or did not play the right starting cards. This took me on a journey where I re-visited my game for holes and working fixing them and have not been on the bubble since.

#25 22nd January 2009, 3:21 AM

what i usually do is only play priemum hands, unless I am higher than an average stack. priemium hands like jj qq kk aa, then ak aq aj kq. If you are about average stack or higher i play normally and the big thing is aviod playing big hands with stacks that are the same as yours or larger.

#26 22nd January 2009, 3:29 AM

Hey chapstick, good post. I always try to wait for a big hand to get involved in (AA-JJ, AKs in late position) around the bubble, but sometimes this just isn't possible. The buy-in of the tourney affects how I play the bubble, for example, if it's a freeroll or a $1-2 buy-in I'm going to play to win or make the final table, since going out just after the bubble isn't going to accomplish much. In bigger tournaments, I play to cash unless I have a lot of chips. I'll offer my opinion on those three situations assuming it's a $5 tournament that started with 200-300 players:
29 people left, you're in 26, cash at 27- I would fold every hand but AA or KK unless I was pot-committed in the SB or BB, where I would push with any pair or 2 overcards.
29 people left, you're in 18, cash at 27- I would play conservatively, but try to see cheap flops with small-medium pairs to try to hit a set and bust someone.
29 people left, you're in 5, cash at 27- I would play aggressively, raising with anything from suited connectors to big hands. This is a great situation, and I love being able to steal blinds and antes at this point because they are usually pretty big.

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