Sit and Go Horror Stories Realistic?

So I have been progressing steadily and with more discipline then in the past, and now I am really looking like I am ready to move up to the $16 turbo sit and goes. I am big on multi tabling and play 20 tables at once.

Now you would think this would lead to a constant steady progression forward, well over time with discipline it does, However I am not immune to swings and still go on runs where I can win $100-300 by been up every single session 7-10 sessions in a row and then can go crashing back down the same way. these runs are rare but not to rare to be exceptional. I am playing the $6.50s at the moment that means I have had runs of 15-46 sit and go buyins before. I am still averaging 10% ROI and a bit more when bonus comes into account so I assume this is normal.

I now have a four figure bank roll and feel I really should be moving up soon.
However I have been hearing some horror stories, My friend has told me he won $4000 on these sit and goes and then went and lost $4000.

thats a 250 buy in down swing, and then someone from a poker chat room I was in (technically not really a poker chat room but it just so happened at that time everyone there was all poker players so was) they told me they had a down swing of $8000.

So heres the info from my friend he does not understand ICM, at one point he was doing the same sit and goes as me and he knew when the blinds passed 200/400 If I had a dominant stack I was shoving any two cards if first in. So he calls my shove with Q8 suited because "it was a 51% favorite over any random hand." (its actually 56%) so yes he thinks getting all in right on the bubble on the positive side of a coin toss is good play.
He did this to a player called glit something or other, who is a seasoned professional at $16 sit and goes and works for a coaching site.

unbelievably he is proud that for a short time he hurt this guys ROI actually believes himself to be a shark and thinks he is better then glit but got really unlucky.

Maybe it's not so hard to understand why he went on a 250 buyin downswing, the guy who claimed an $8000 buyin downswing I am not sure if they thought my bank roll management been to tight and was sarcastically taking the piss or if this is actually true.

based on statistical averages of myself I should easily pass $2000 bank roll by the end of this month. I have been debating in my mind whether $2000 is enough to move to the $16 sit and goes or whether I need $3200, bank roll management has existed to the extent in the past if i crash down to <$200 reload and I have cashed out a few times now. Doing the $6.50 sit and goes it not really relevant.

I always thought a 100 buyin rule was adequate I guess If lose more then $500 when I move up I can always move back down and $1500 is still perfectly stable for the $6.50s.

However seriously is 250-500 buyin downswings realistically likely for someone who yes was a losing player in the past but studied the game and then managed a 10% ROI over a several k sit and go sample?
I mean if I understand what I am doing is this nightmare likely to come true?

Am I moving to fast to move up with $2000?

A 250 buyin downswing is practically impossible (I'm only not saying 'completely impossible' because nothing is completely impossible ) for a long-term winning player. Your friend is/has either (a) lying, (b) a losing player, (c) moved up stakes too quickly, (d) started playing too many tables, or any combination of the above.

Most likely (b) if he thinks calling for his stack on a SNG bubble with 51% equity is optimal, lol.

e: I just remembered i have a program called roisim which is pretty useful for calcing fun stuff like this. Using Stars $6s (with payouts slightly adjusted because it doesn't like decimals)...

Attached Images

roisim.jpg (116.3 KB, 17 views)