Seeking Insights, Suggestions and/or Constructive Criticism

Background

I work full time and generally play poker in the evenings or on weekends. I’m a mathematician by degree (about 25 years ago), so I have a working knowledge of probability, expected value, variance, etc.

I’ve been playing poker online, exclusively at FullTilt for a little more than 3 years. I first won a few dollars by taking down a Razz freeroll and have turned that into about $1,800 by playing predominantly NLHE SNGs. I started at $1 STTs and now play $5 and $10 STTs, as well as some CardsChat freerolls and money-added MTTs when time permits.

I feel like I’m a pretty good recreational online player, although I know I’d be an easy read in a live game. That’s fine with me since I don’t believe they offer live events played in your underwear while Lost runs on TV in the background. I have never played ring games for money and almost never play more than one tourney at a time. I’m just not that good at multi-tasking, and I really need to pay some attention to my wife (she’s an avid reader but doesn’t play poker) and help my children with their homework.

I’ve never deposited using my own money, and since I started playing while ignorant of such things, I have no rakeback. I’ve also never used a hand tracking software program, mostly because of the expense and my sense that it would be more valuable in multi-tabling cash games.

Questions

How can I objectively assess my poker ability? Perhaps one of you has access to a tool that would illustrate my strengths, weaknesses, or tendencies. Since I’ve opened myself up here, I wouldn’t mind anything being posted, especially if it’s already public info.

Should I consider playing higher stakes? I’ve never played tourneys larger than $10, but I suppose my bankroll would permit it. I’ve kept it relatively low so I don’t get too uptight about the investment, especially since most of my play is on the weekend, where the play seems somewhat erratic (could easily be my imagination). What kind of differences could I expect at $20 to $30 limits? More of the same that I see at $5 and $10, or is the skilled level significantly better? Can I expect my current successes to translate into a similar pattern at higher stakes?

Lately I’ve noticed a significant number of my opponents have been multi-tabling these STTs. It seems like I have an advantage over them because I’m focused on just one table and the players and action around me. While my variance would certainly be higher, can’t I predict a higher expected return on an evening of four $10 STTs than I would for twenty $2 STTs (not even counting the extra buck saved in fees)?

Get poker tracking software...

You want to objectively review your game, you're thinking about moving up, and you're a math guy.

Get poker tracking software...

Agree 100%. Download the free trials of HEM and PT3 (one then the other). Imports your old hands and try out the software.

Congrats on your success to this point and continued good luck.

u can see your stats at pokerprolabs

use proper bankroll management and move up...u wont know unless u try

[quote=ckingriches;1396673]Background

I work full time and generally play poker in the evenings or on weekends. I’m a mathematician by degree (about 25 years ago), so I have a working knowledge of probability, expected value, variance, etc.

I’ve been playing poker online, exclusively at FullTilt for a little more than 3 years. I first won a few dollars by taking down a Razz freeroll and have turned that into about $1,800 by playing predominantly NLHE SNGs. I started at $1 STTs and now play $5 and $10 STTs, as well as some CardsChat freerolls and money-added MTTs when time permits.

I feel like I’m a pretty good recreational online player, although I know I’d be an easy read in a live game. That’s fine with me since I don’t believe they offer live events played in your underwear while Lost runs on TV in the background. I have never played ring games for money and almost never play more than one tourney at a time. I’m just not that good at multi-tasking, and I really need to pay some attention to my wife (she’s an avid reader but doesn’t play poker) and help my children with their homework.

I’ve never deposited using my own money, and since I started playing while ignorant of such things, I have no rakeback. I’ve also never used a hand tracking software program, mostly because of the expense and my sense that it would be more valuable in multi-tabling cash games.

Questions

How can I objectively assess my poker ability? Perhaps one of you has access to a tool that would illustrate my strengths, weaknesses, or tendencies. Since I’ve opened myself up here, I wouldn’t mind anything being posted, especially if it’s already public info.
You could try hand tracking software such as holdem manager or poker tracker 3... another thing i suggest is trying out SNG wizard, it will help you with ICM situations in sng play... but this software costs a bit of $$$ your looking at $80 for PT3 and i think its around 100 for SNG wizard but im really not sure.. so if your a recreational player i dont think this is really necessary... look on one of the tracking sites like sharkscope.com or topshark and look at your ROI, it should be around 5-10% thats a decent ROI for sng's, so obviously you are doing something correct..
Should I consider playing higher stakes? I’ve never played tourneys larger than $10, but I suppose my bankroll would permit it. I’ve kept it relatively low so I don’t get too uptight about the investment, especially since most of my play is on the weekend, where the play seems somewhat erratic (could easily be my imagination). What kind of differences could I expect at $20 to $30 limits? More of the same that I see at $5 and $10, or is the skilled level significantly better? Can I expect my current successes to translate into a similar pattern at higher stakes?

for me it depends on what site you play at, pokerstars the higher buy ins come with a higher rake compared to full tilt, so you find a few less regulars playing there.. 20-30 buy ins play somewhat similarly to 10 buy ins, but the higher you go, the less fish and the more regs, 50+ buy ins youll be lucky to find 1-2 fish at a 9 handed table.. whereas the 10 buy in youll be lucky to find 2-3 regulars.. so i would say that the skill is overall siginifacntly better at the 30+ buy in tables, most know their ICM and have a good overall strategy..


Lately I’ve noticed a significant number of my opponents have been multi-tabling these STTs. It seems like I have an advantage over them because I’m focused on just one table and the players and action around me. I would agree with that, but overall they will make a lot more money than you, if they are able to play 50 sng's a day, with a slightly lower ROI they stand to make a higher return than your 4 sng a day with a higher ROI... While my variance would certainly be higher, can’t I predict a higher expected return on an evening of four $10 STTs than I would for twenty $2 STTs (not even counting the extra buck saved in fees
yes becuase your saving on rake at the 10 tables, the pokerstars 15+1's are good look into those..[/quote]

,,,,

Get yourself tracking software as said - I only have 91 hands of you in my DB so these numbers won't tell you alot (tiny sample size).

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I looked at Sharkscope and found some basic info about myself. I'm not sure what to do with it; perhaps consider it confirmation that I'm not a complete donkey...

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You're not a donk, we don't need sharkscope to tell us that. Your first post pretty much outlined that you're an intelligent thinking player. Good BRM, playing games that suit you (SNG's for a guy with a maths background), running $0 up to 1.8k without taking significant risks (i.e. not requiring significant luck). That says more than tracking software will.


I do agree with everyone else about at least downloading the free trials of PT3 and/or HEM, knowing how much various hands are earning you and from what position as well as the effectiveness of various plays like cbetting and pre-flop steals will be a huge asset to your game. More than anything else, it will help you to plug some leaks which are no doubt in your game (in everyones).

Not sure that I can suggest anything specifically to do with SNGs, but I definately recommend not staying at the same stakes for too long. Your game should be constantly evolving and staying ahead of your opponents' development. Apart from anything else, the game is just much more interesting with new challenges. If you're rolled to move up, then do. Learn and adapt your skill set to beat continually higher stakes.

With those kind of numbers you should be playing higher stakes. The ROI you have is easily in the top 1% of all players who play in STT's at those stakes, with that many games played.