Same Deal Same Steal?

#1 20th August 2008, 10:04 PM

Let's say you get a Q9 suited dealt, and you take it. You win with two pairs Q9's.

Next hand: Q9 suited (different suit). Would you play it again or think "well.. What are the odds of winning with the same hand"?

#2 20th August 2008, 10:15 PM

Exact scenario happened to me today with Q5.

Clubs first in BB. Flopped 2 pr & improved to full boat. Won.

Qd5d in SB, UTG raised 4x, I thought about calling, read: luck factor, came to my senses (I believe in statistics not luck) & clicked fold before the action was back around to me.

2 pr'd the flop, kicked myself, UTG won with QQ.

I never consider "the odds of winning with the same hand". Rather, I consider, what are the odds of winning with this hand, and I can't look at Q5 and see much value.

#3 21st August 2008, 7:35 PM

A similar thing happened to me in a recent live tournament. Was dealt Q9 of hearts two times in a row and both times made a full house.

But the point is that these are two independent events. Your mind might think that the odds of winning the with same hand are going to be low, but given the fact that you have already won that first time, the odds of winning a second is the exact same as the first.

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