Rigged: The AA test

i havnt got stat but ive lost with aces lots the only reason is the amount of hand played online vs live games is far more plus if it was rigged they must be sittin there going oh we like tha user name hes a winner oh thatone suck we will doom that user my freind wins lots and i lose lots and i even play like him ive watched and tried to take lessons of him but nah i still lose

Basically my view on this so called rigging is, that if your gonna play learn to expect a loss. Getting all your money in on the best hand is all you can do, and as expected, hoping to win. When you are in or watching a high stakes game and (I do this at home on my comp) is stand up. Standing up is usually a sign of nervousness. Down right terror to be more frank. They do this because as seasoned pros they know they are ahead but anything can happen, hence the name of the beast , GAMBLING! They know while A-A, A-K, A-Q, are the typically best starting hands I cannot stress how many times I have gotten totally burned on these hands. The WPT on the travel channel has taught us that these hands are truely worth putting your money in on. I beg to differ. I do it even though I know the risks, but now I just like to pick people apart rather than risk my whole stack anymore, I may not win as many but I usually place and thats all I care about.

WIZZO
MAY THE FLOP BE WITH YOU

u guys must be lucky as hell for your rockets to win 80% of the time.
aa only holds for me 22% of the time against any 2 cards.
be it weaker ace or underpair.

why soes everyone in here get so excited about rockets???

i always know when its time for BODOG to screw me on the bubble cause thats when i get the dreaded AA.

my wife tells me to fold that trash and shes right because any 2 cards that call me always stomps it.
last time was called by ace 3 offsuit and flop was 336.



fold that trash!!!

If anyone read completely through this thread..I think mendo is the most composed poster here. Argues some points validly and doesn't bring out emotion to it..more of a brainstorm ? to ponder. As for me...yep...I'm a crappy player..I've been put down more ways than can be imagined. When I get drawn out..I was the idiot for pushing. When I get beaten..I was the moron etc. I think the aim of poker..is to get your money in..when you have the best of it....and its up to the poker gods...RNG, the site..etc to make you a winner. I do believe AA, KK, QQ come out statistically sound. What I think may be happening on sites to be " rigged" is that the software auto adjusts to certain play. Case and point...I flopped a set of Queens a couple nights ago...against a single player in the small blind. He bets out...I min raise...he calls. Turn...would put someone with an A into a gutshot situation...He bets out...I go all in...he calls for 3/4 stack. River is the T..giving him the straight...yes I know...a whining post....but I'm not really whining...this is where I believe the corruption..rigging...etc is happening. It was a $20 buy in and deep...within 50 people to the $$. These are the posts I'd like to see..not because I'm into "conspiracy theory" not because I want a bunch of whining posts...but would really like to see what is happening to everyone.
Last year I won a WPT seat by multi freerolling. I also made close to 24k from an initial investment of $300. Since the Banning of Online poker in the US, I can't win for the life of me. I even flopped a nut flush in Head to head play...and lost $400 in that hand when runner runner gs straight flush hit. Its been that kind of year.
Enough of my whining though...that's not what my post is about. I want to thank you guys for looking at things from a statistical standpoint...trying to dispell myths. I also would like to thank most of the posters on this thread. Response that are w/o lots of emotion and breaking down the posters are much easier to read...and makes it worthwhile for us all. Thank you!

Thanks for the interest dontquit. GL and keep posting.

Only 22% of the time? That seems impossible. Over how many hands? How do you play them? Not that that really matters, I can't think of anything you could possibly do to to get that bad a winrate.

This is really interesting though, but unfortunately a bit off topic. I'd like to see a new thread on this.

Poker Site: FullTilt
Times dealt AA: 11
Total Hands: 3,331
Percentage: 0.33% LOW
Expected: 0.45%

And an interesting note... ive won with AA 81.82%

Interesting thing is KK
Times dealt: 26
Percentage: 0.78% HIGH!!!!!

Very confusing....

Thanks for the Full Tilt Poker hands pitter. Been pushing for them. Your a little low on the aces and way high on the Kings. 15 is expected for both of them.
Yeah, that winrate for Aces is pretty average. That winrate for KK is downright amazing though.

Here's the updated results. Pushed Full Tilt Poker even further afield.

Attached Images

Rigged AA.JPG (45.3 KB, 10 views)

I was actually losing with AA after 10,000 hands at PokerStars... BUT it was at microstakes which led to lots and lots of people calling all the way to the river. Add to that the fact that probably 30-40% of the time I pushed all-in preflop and it is much more understandable.
Although I dont think that poker is rigged whereas the site cares who wins, I did read a blog where a guy posted results that showed some strange things. It was not that AA or KK came up more often. So if they are supposed to come up (statistically) 5 times out of 1000 hands, they still do. The strange part was that AA and KK came up together more times. What I mean is that lets say AA comes up 5 times out of 1000 hands and KK does as well. They would come up only the 5 times, but they would come up in the same hands. The anomaly was in the number of times that AA and KK came up together, not in the number of times they came up in general.
Now I may not subscribe to the theory that poker is "rigged", but I could see some kind of error in the software, agorythims or whatever, that would cause this. Does not mean that the site is trying to pit big hands for more rake either. It could be simply a software/programming issue.

Oh yeah and to the people that really think it is rigged against them - why would you keep playing at that site? I mean if you think that there is a conspiracy against you, you should try another site where they are not out to get you. Unless they ALL are after you...

Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get you.

Well ill take that win rate with KK as a compliment it may just because i play no limit and well i dont screw around and usually toss in 3x or 4x the bb which leads to a few walks.

i dont have the exact number right now but i have been dealt AA a few times since my last post which probably has bumped my rate up but still no where near where it should be... but if im winning with my K's ill take those too

EDIT:
i didnt give you my winrate for KK's... or am i just out of it

here is the quick update..
Dealt AA: 13 / 3675 hands
Percentage: 0.35%

Its getting better!!!

Also.. what is the expected rate for a certain 2 suited cards.. for instance. QK suited (my favourite hand) which i have only been dealt 7 times

I got Aces 16 times in the last 2288 hands on PokerStars.

Thanks odin and pitter. I'll add these later today.

I was reading a artical wrote by a well known internet player that had evidence of online cheating. It was extremely interesting seeing that this guy usually makes a lot of money playing and at his house, but had some issues with his home computer.

Now saying that I wish I could remember where I read this and who wrote it. According to people who wrote comments they all believed him because he is so well known.

I believe that it IS possible. If hackers can hack Microsoft, Google, or other which have all been done why can some hacker figure out who plays online, find a way to hack into their computer, be able to see their hole cards, and use it as an advantage.

For once someone explain why it can't be happening? I've also read an artical wrote by some internet security expert and he wrote that it is the beginning of the end for online poker because of the cheating. That down the road more cheating scams will be exposed, people will lose their trust, and then stop playing.

I know saying that if someone can't disprove something it doesn't mean it is happening, but I have to say I do believe. Now you don't have to believe, but I think it's worth being cautious.

If I wanted to see hole cards, I would have to hack into your computer. That defintely is possible, it is a trojan. There are software that you can buy that snaps a shot of the victims screen. There are also software that give you total remote access (you can actually see there screen, move the mouse cursor ect - though these would need 2 computers at the attackers house and would be alot more likely to get caught).

I should add that you wouldnt get everyones hole cards, only the victims that had the software installed (you sent the trojan to). As far as hacking into the poker clients site, that would be a decent feet, since they seem to have alot of security (they better since they have all of our money lol). BUT there have been kids that have went to prison for hacking into banks, the FBI, and all types of NASA/military type of places. They can get into credit card databases, they can even get into DMV records, so I wouldnt doubt that it is possible to do. Well I know that nothing is impossible online, but what goes along with that is realistically if someone is doing that, do you think that they would use it to see hole cards (as opposed to just getting into accounts and shifting money whereever they feel like it, hell if they are that good to break into past the security, they probably are good enough to cover their tracks as well).

when you play online, you get more hands than in real life, and therefore you get more monster starting hands. not exactly hard to understand...

Updated for pitter and odinsctott.
Thanks.

Attached Images

Rigged AA.JPG (45.2 KB, 10 views)

There's not much credibility to an argument either way unless the sites were fully government regulated...

If the games are rigged it's much more to be the case in limit poker rather than tourney as they've got the most they can get out of it with several thousand players in...

That is unless the winning players are hosts...

Greed is one thing and honor another...

Which do you have faith in for your answer?...

AA should be profitable about 60% of the time so play them...

If it's multiway at the River and a scary board AA up is prolly what you're going to need to win...

Is that the real % of them winning? Because that is much closer to how much I win with them, compared to the 80% number.

It shouldnt matter if it is cash game or tournament correct? The only difference that I can see is alot more allin plays probably in the tournament situation.

If we count my last 20,000 hands, my winning percentages are lower than 80, closer to 60 even. But in the last 4,000 hands they are at almost 90%! The offset of this, is that as I posted in another thread, in my last 4,000 hands, I am losing with almost everything! For real, I have the Poker Tracker stats, and nearly all of the "monster" starting hands I am getting cracked at.

Here's my AAs from partypoker.

Wow! That is THE single largest contribution to any site yet. Thank you stormin99 I like the screenshot too. Less chance for someone to make a mistake. This sample now puts Party at number 2 in total hands behind PokerStars and gives us a much clearer picture of what kind of deviation we should be looking for at 150,000 hands or so. At 3% it's still pretty high compared to PokerStars .4% but way better than Full Tilt at a rediculous 10%.

I sure would like to get the opinion of someone more statistically knowledgable than I am at what a reasonable deviation should be. Ideally, the larger the sample size, the smaller it should be, eventually approaching but never reaching zero. Full Tilt appears to be heading in the opposite direction. I'm not sure what it all means at this point.

Attached Images

Rigged AA.JPG (45.5 KB, 10 views)

i think its soo stupid how people say it is rigged...its poker..any card out of the deck could come up at any time, at random..its completely random.yah ull get a bad beat someteims and maybe even a lot in a short period of time, but im sure theres times where u beat someone with AA or a monster hand with ur crap hand...its so ridiculous how people say its rigged..there is no possible way of knowing that..theres 52 cards in a deck.. ANY card..can come up at any time. thats poker..deal with it

Wow, I think you are getting somewhere 4 Dogs. Seems that all sites with N> 20,000 show similar deviations (except wonky Tilt of course). Ultimate's sample size at 1600 or so is way to small, that's why it is skewed, I guess you need over 10K hands before you start seeing credible figures.

I hit the nuts on the flop with an Ace high Flush and decided to slow play it, my opponent did the work for me by going all in and I called. He hits runner, runner 6's to make Four of a kind. I had to laugh, what can you do? Thats Poker, take the good with the bad. I also won a SnG by surviving a couple of all ins where I needed backdoor straights and I made them, so you gotta take the good with the bad.

I see tons of straights get made on the river. Usually against me.

Thats not that big of a deal, I can honestly say that happens to me everyday. But a straight doesn't beat a flush does it? And thats what I had. My opponent hit the only 2 remaining 6's in the deck (you still call it a deck even though it's online right?) to make Four of a kind, thats a bad beat whatever language you speak. Losing to a straight? So the **** what?

lol what? me no speaky your language, me speaky enligh. if you can make that little bit more understable, would def help thx.

No need to be patronising, I'm seeing that a lot on this Forum from more of the senior members.

Perhaps you can tell me which bits you couldn't comprehend?

I hear you that you are disturbed cause you got sucked out on. Perhaps look at the thread that I complained about the same thing. Mind you all of those were in one day (or maybe two?).

we all know their are cheaters why money but thye do get caught casino's when caught have a bigger stake at losing thier gaming licenses so i find it a lil hard to swallow they'd even risk that much.. so maybe a fake site would.. i guess i won more than i lost so i have no quams about it..think cheaters allways get caught greed kills them..so sooner or later it will bite...my stats i don't record i'm sure the sites do it for me..in my logs every hand ever played data input 010101010