Rigged: The AA test

#**456** 06-09-2008, 5:37 PM

its not in a sites interest to "rig" anything..

bad beats SEEM like they happen more online because the players are worse..you have ALOT more people drawing for those flush draws and inside straights then you normally would in a live game, plus you see ALOT more hands go by quicker

my theory on why people play like this online is that they dont have to look you in the eye when they flip over there cards

its also easier to to click an "all-in" button then to have to physically count out chips

#**457** 06-09-2008, 6:05 PM

Great thread. I only recently started tracking my play, so my sample size would be worthless. Nice to see sane people on a poker message board.

~H

#**458** 07-09-2008, 5:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ysmisc

This is a long thread and it seems focused on AA.
But I think this was a nice test but not a full test.

I think a better test is (not sure if possible though) is to cover all HU (all ins on at least one of the players) and to see how many times the better hand won - The average win rate should be closely related to the average ratio of difference between hands.
For example if at X HU games the average chance was ~80% for the good hand and ~20% to the low hand then I think the number of wins should be close to 0.8X to the strong hand as well.
This way we will address all of these claims of "QQ lost to one over card".

Please correct me if I am wrong (Mathematics is soooo complex sometimes :-)) and sorry if this was discussed before.

I once ran a test on Stars doing exactly what you suggested after running bad for what seemed to me to be an unrealistically long amount of time. The conclusion was that I had only lost HU all in about 6 more times than expected. I realized that a good run would cover that, and since I remembered that occasionally I run good, I abandoned any further testing because I figured it was indeed poor selective memory on my part that made me think Stars was rigged.

#**459** 08-09-2008, 9:12 AM

it is definitely poor selective memory that causes people to say all the stereotypical stuff regarding bad beats "this is rigged", "I got Ultimatebet'ed", "FT sucks", "this is BS" etc.

People forget all the times the suck out doesn't come because they're expecting to not see it. The just get emotional about the one where they think it was over and the short odds hit. That's the nature of the game and getting emotional about it usually just puts you on tilt.

Lets not forget everyone who plays poker sometimes puts their chips in the pot bad and sucks out. Not once have I seen someone give the money back...

#**460** 09-09-2008, 1:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by azbo

this thread is really long, in the beginning there were people asking about data sample size but I just didn't have the the motivation to read 11 pages of posts.

The thing with sample size is increased sample size just means a higher degree of confidence. The sample mean is rarely the same as the population mean but you can usually get to a point where you have enough data to suggest a certain confidence interval. It works out to be that a 95% confidence interval is a common target in statistical analysis. You also have a range of error that comes with any analysis. This can also be calculated. A lot of times you'll see a political poll with +/- x% attached to it, which means the actual value can be expected to be within that margin of error from the result 95% of the time.

The required sample size to achieve 95% confidence interval is dependent on the total population of the data. It turns out that 95% confidence is equivalent to 3 std deviations from the mean under a bell curve. In laymans terms that means if you see a normal bell curve with a tail drifting off to each end .025 of the data points will be greater than 3 std deviations away from the mean at each end which adds up to .05 which is where the 95% or .95 comes from.

I haven't done much statistics in a while but you need to know the expected outcome of an event % wise, the total number of events, your error tolerance (it takes a lot more data to achieve a 1% margin of error than a 5% for instance)and your confidence interval. We're not going top have the total population number because the poker sites aren't going to give you a db including all the hands. You don't need that number to do this it just makes it easier and more accurate.

So far I've been winging it and learning about statistics as I go but this looks like some really expert insight. I'm impressed. If you have any suggestions as to changes I could make I'd be grateful. We're up over one million hands now and I've been thinking of adding some kind of confidence column.

#**461** 09-09-2008, 2:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thepokermonitor

Full TiltHands 43,200AA - 177expected - 194

“If knowledge can create problems, it is not through ignorance that we can solve them.”
-Isaac Asimov

Nice contribution. Actually, it's 200 expected. Pretty close.

I haven't forgotten you godoy. You're next.

#**462** 09-09-2008, 2:40 AM

ok, do you want me to check in another pokerrooms that I play?
like carbon poker?

#**463** 09-09-2008, 9:52 PM

You obviously do not understand the game and the probabilities. Get out and stop wasting your money. Live players will also see the same patterns. Your lack of skill and denial are clouding your perspective.

#**464** 09-09-2008, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RAMARAIDER

You obviously do not understand the game and the probabilities. Get out and stop wasting your money. Live players will also see the same patterns. Your lack of skill and denial are clouding your perspective.

Who are you talking to

#**465** 09-09-2008, 10:10 PM

Nice stats, but where are the stats for bodog.

Anyone have hand history from there?

#**466** 10-09-2008, 11:34 PM

Most of these sites are not regulated, and even the ones that have a generation check and who consider them as regulated, still have the program much like the computer your sitting at. It's not the question of the random generated deals which is what is checked. It's like the site on youtube showing that the operator of the sites do in fact have control of the programs and can make the cards do prtty much anything they want at over ride mode. Thank you youtube for showing this for the world to see. Keep it free!!!

#**467** 10-09-2008, 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by godoy

Full Tilt- 38740 AA - 159
=)

let's start to play at doyle's room lol

Quote:

Originally Posted by godoy

ok, do you want me to check in another pokerrooms that I play?
like carbon poker?

Ship it!

"I don't believe it. Prove it to me and I still won't believe it."
-Douglas Adams

#**468** 10-09-2008, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RAMARAIDER

You obviously do not understand the game and the probabilities. Get out and stop wasting your money. Live players will also see the same patterns. Your lack of skill and denial are clouding your perspective.

Quote:

Originally Posted by D'wilius

Who are you talking to

Yeah, who is he talking to?

#**469** 11-09-2008, 9:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Four Dogs

So far I've been winging it and learning about statistics as I go but this looks like some really expert insight. I'm impressed. If you have any suggestions as to changes I could make I'd be grateful. We're up over one million hands now and I've been thinking of adding some kind of confidence column.

I had reached 7 posts when I saw this and I've been too busy to return. If you define the problem (is it simply how often do AA come? Or how often when KK is out?) and PM me with your numbers I'll do the math and return it to you or post it.

#**470** 13-09-2008, 3:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by azbo

I had reached 7 posts when I saw this and I've been too busy to return. If you define the problem (is it simply how often do AA come? Or how often when KK is out?) and PM me with your numbers I'll do the math and return it to you or post it.

Wow! Great

. I'll do that this weekend. You don't need to kill yourself over this, but have a look ans see what you think.

#**471** 13-09-2008, 3:29 PM

How do you find out this? im interested in how many times i have been delt the pocket rockets, i am a member of Ultimatebet. FT, PS, bodog and cake.
It would be very interesting to see this.
Also can u choose other combinations?
wondering this because i get alot of pocket queens on Ultimatebet and i kick arse, i have quaded with them alot heheheheh!!

#**472** 14-09-2008, 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vixenx78

How do you find out this? im interested in how many times i have been delt the pocket rockets, i am a member of Ultimatebet. FT, PokerStars, bodog and cake.
It would be very interesting to see this.
Also can u choose other combinations?
wondering this because i get alot of pocket queens on Ultimatebet and i kick arse, i have quaded with them alot heheheheh!!

Most of us use PokerTracker to cull through the HH's. You can download the beta for free. It works at Full Tilt and PokerStars. I don't think it works at the others. I may be wrong. And yes, you can sort by ANY hand combination.

#**473** 14-09-2008, 3:24 PM

I think you should also take into consideration when the pocket aces come up.....especially early on in big tournaments....that could be a huge factor.

#**474** 14-09-2008, 3:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scooterdice

I think you should also take into consideration when the pocket aces come up.....especially early on in big tournaments....that could be a huge factor.

sorry? I'm not sure I understand.

#**475** 15-09-2008, 4:03 AM

amen brother, i think all this rigged talk is absolute b.s. For one thing, think how many government officials are just drooling at the chance to shut down these online sites.. they have top computer people investigating this stuff all the time i'm sure, and they would find if they found someway to "rig" a random card generator. there is no chance any of these extremely successful and popular poker sites that will and would make a ton of money either way (rigged or not rigged) would take a gamble (no pun intended) with no good reason. why rig something that is going to make them millions upon millions for a chance to lose everything? take your bad beats in stride people, and realize you see way more hands online so you are going to see alot more random outcomes.

#**476** 16-09-2008, 3:26 PM

i dont think certain sites are rigged, i personally only trust PS and FT. but at the same time, if im gonna play for big money...i want to see the deck in front of me. i play online for fun and never have deposited, just used winning from freerolls to build my br and still stay at the micro level.

i guess the lesson is, if you think its rigged, why are you playing.

gl all

wooter

#**477** 19-09-2008, 3:42 PM

rigged is right we all know how bad they steal from us we just havent found a way to prove it for sure...cant tell you how many times iv had a strong hand and got smoked by the one outer and see a huge pot go away... i say just keep pushin and prayin cuz thats all net poker is a lotto but we all love it right??

Random Number generators are an algorythym a amth problem and last i checked they tend to be repetitive in nature ...contain some type of pattern...or both so random i think not but keep believing it is .. that is why i only play freerolls on the net...you dont feed these shady bast......but i do wish you all well... and good luck at the felts

#**478** 22-09-2008, 6:19 PM

Site: Pokerstars
Number of hands: 21,568
Dealt AA: 104
Expected: 124
I am dealt AA: 1/212.56 hands

#**479** 24-09-2008, 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cynappa

Site: Pokerstars
Number of hands: 21,568
Dealt AA: 104
Expected: 124
I am dealt AA: 1/212.56 hands

97 actually, but your contribution is appreciated.

"The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks."

-Douglas Adams

#**480** 24-09-2008, 3:13 AM

I have worked in brick and mortor casino's for twenty years, and I feal that online sites, just like "real casinos", are concered about thier image as much as anything. They have nothing to gain and everything to loose by ignoreing the wild accusations. Like has been pointed out so many times before, thier profit comes from the rake. If people dont trust thier sites, be it security flaws or ignoreing cheaters, they go belly up.

Just a observation from a person who has worked his entire adult life in gameing

#**481** 24-09-2008, 6:56 PM

I was in a tournament the other day and got AA 6 times, only lost with it once, the hand that broke me!lol

#**482** 24-09-2008, 8:38 PM

I am over all the rigged non-sense as well. We have seen the beats at every live table as well. I have seen way worse beats at my weekly poker tournament down the street then I have seen on all the sites I have played on, Full tilt, Bodog and Pokerstars. Sure I have my dislikes between those three but most of the time it is all the same.....you get good cards and the good cards lose. Plain and simple....get over the rigged crap, it just happens.

Joedubb714

#**483** 25-09-2008, 3:40 AM

And something else we may never know because it will never be admitted. So unless everyone helps FOUR DOGS with his stats we will never know.

#**484** 25-09-2008, 4:30 PM

have you calculated how many times there was AA vs KK vs QQ vs TT etc on the same hand

personnaly, ive seen AA KK QQ on the same one.. on pokerstars !

#**485** 25-09-2008, 9:04 PM

I do agree with Chesterflick on one thing, there are some people on here that no matter what you ask a question about they answer you with a nasty superior additude. There are a couple of people I can think of that have never answered me any other way. It's not just me , I 've notice they answer most people that way except for Nick,Dakota, and a few others. So i guess they know how to be nice but, they just save it for certain people. There is a name for that, but I think most of you know what it is. Don't get me wrong most people on here are very nice it's those few who make it unpleasant for me.

#**486** 26-09-2008, 2:23 AM

So I was just busted out of a tourney (with AA). I had just gone on a huge tear winning 8 pots in a row. Then UTG I pick up 2 black aces. I open with a raise of 4X the BB. I get 1 caller(on the button) flop comes 9, J, 7, all clubs. Oh and the caller is also the only player on the table that has enough chips to bust me by the way. I lead out with a pot sized bet, he calls. The turn is a red 10. I bet the pot, he comes over the top all-in. About a third of my stack is already in the pot, I have the Aces and the nut flush draw so I call. This donk has A8 off suit hitting the gut shot on the turn. River is a blank. When people try so hard to give you their chips, why can't these sites just allow them to do it?

#**487** 26-09-2008, 4:54 PM

Very interesting information. Next time my AA gets busted on the very first hand (as has happened in the past), I won't feel as bad. By the way, I would never dream of it, but how in the world do you cheat in an online game, or am I just being naive?

#**488** 26-09-2008, 11:56 PM

Getting Aces is completly random, I got 3 in 5 hands once and then again not in a single day of like 3 hours gaming. It depends, yet again the luck factor plays its role

#**489** 27-09-2008, 4:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by megadeth123

seen AA KK QQ on the same one.. on pokerstars !

seen it at FR, too, and the queens were mine -- tripped on the river for the win...it's poker.

FourDogs, know I'm late to the game and this thread has been running for months but shouldn't it be:

Dev = DEALT/ExpDEALT ?

If you get more than expected, that is a positive, but you cipher it as a negative....pretty minor point but negatives for getting extra seems backwards somehow.

#**490** 27-09-2008, 3:21 PM

here's an example of a situation where you dont want to have aces and where it could be not rigged but lets say ''shuffled''

4-people poker game 25$ each + possible rebuys, the very, very first hand, im on the button, so i shuffle the cards, and i get Ad4d, sb has AA

flop is QJK all diamonds, i check, sb checks, turn is 10 of clubs, i check sb checks, river is 2 of spades...

i manage to get sb all-in.. he was thinking afterwards that i did some tricks with the cards

morale : shit happens live and online


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