Rigged: The AA test

#**351** 12-07-2008, 4:39 PM

Nothing has such power to broaden the mind as the ability to investigate systematically and truly all that comes under thy observation in life.

-Marcus Aurelius

FD, that is such a fantastic quote, thankyou!
As for stats, when I eventually get off my lazy **** and download Poker Tracker trial I will collate some stats for you, sir.

#**352** 13-07-2008, 9:01 PM

Ok, I read this thread the other day and have a thought on it. You are justusing the AA senario in this. Try inputting the KK and other big hands in there. Just a thought!

#**353** 14-07-2008, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by simpleman31

Ok, I read this thread the other day and have a thought on it. You are justusing the AA senario in this. Try inputting the KK and other big hands in there. Just a thought!

I tried to keep it simple and elegant in order to get more participation. At any rate, I doubt the results would look any different regardless of which pair I chose. You can't manipulate the frequency of one starting hand, paired or otherwise, without effecting the rest in some ultimately noticable way. For instance, if AA hands were over represented, any Ax hand would have to be underrepresented, but all other holdings would become more common as there would be fewer available combinations.

#**354** 20-07-2008, 8:54 PM

u know i thought that way when i first started playing poker. but after about 3 years of constant play almost everyday i have to say that it is the younger players who believe that it is rigged. mostly it is just bad play on their parts and after some time they will realize that there is no sure thing in poker and that luck will play a factor. but if you can consistently make the right decisions luck will only play a small role in their game. online poker is not rigged...the companies make too much money to risk getting caught cheating their customers. just to dumb to even do. gl and play on all.

#**355** 22-07-2008, 7:10 PM

LOL, lots of ppl think it's rigged but continue to dump money???

#**356** 22-07-2008, 9:53 PM

excuse me for saying so but its all mute point.
for one reason,
the rigging begins before you sit down.
most sites programs run off their deposit program.
yes sorry to tell ya!
if you get in a 1.20 45 mna sit n go and you have deposited the most that month you are placed in the programs winning seat
regardless of the cards you get you will win that is why you see alot of big stacks call down a-k wit 2-5 and hit a 2 ior something stupid like the river straight. sry to burst your investigation bubble

#**357** 22-07-2008, 10:00 PM

i know its rigged and don't dump money.
the reason i play though is to try to beat the program by dominating the hands im in and leaving a lasting impression when i do play.
trying to out wit a computer program and trying to staydominately aggressive over the other players at the table is fun
like living on a razors edge of sorts

#**358** 24-07-2008, 1:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgmotorfan

excuse me for saying so but its all mute point.
for one reason,
the rigging begins before you sit down.
most sites programs run off their deposit program.
yes sorry to tell ya!
if you get in a 1.20 45 mna sit n go and you have deposited the most that month you are placed in the programs winning seat
regardless of the cards you get you will win that is why you see alot of big stacks call down a-k wit 2-5 and hit a 2 ior something stupid like the river straight. sry to burst your investigation bubble

Scuse me, that's 'moot,' not 'mute.'
The rest of your post is the most ridiculous doggerel I have ever had the misfortune to read in this or any other forum.

#**359** 24-07-2008, 1:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgmotorfan

i know its rigged and don't dump money.
the reason i play though is to try to beat the program by dominating the hands im in and leaving a lasting impression when i do play.
trying to out wit a computer program and trying to staydominately aggressive over the other players at the table is fun
like living on a razors edge of sorts

Doh!
Beat what program where?
U r seriously paranoid dude.
BTW according to your earlier assertion, you can buy a winning seat by depositing, so why not do that?

#**360** 24-07-2008, 10:47 AM

can someone lend me a million bucks? I wanna deposit it all and get the winning hot seat in every mtt I play in, and win each one..............I'll pay the money back to you at the end of the month!

#**361** 24-07-2008, 7:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgmotorfan

excuse me for saying so but its all mute point.
for one reason,
the rigging begins before you sit down.
most sites programs run off their deposit program.
yes sorry to tell ya!
if you get in a 1.20 45 mna sit n go and you have deposited the most that month you are placed in the programs winning seat
regardless of the cards you get you will win that is why you see alot of big stacks call down a-k wit 2-5 and hit a 2 ior something stupid like the river straight. sry to burst your investigation bubble

where is your proof?

#**362** 25-07-2008, 2:51 AM

Its interesting how the guys with + ROIs never think online poker is rigged. Its only the people who are net losers that make this claim. Im tired of the whole argument. Best way to sum it up is this. If you think its rigged dont play. Simple as that. What does it say about a person who thinks its rigged against him yet he makes deposits every week????????

#**363** 27-07-2008, 7:37 AM

^^^^Im sorry, wtf has this got to do with rigged? sites, bud?

#**364** 27-07-2008, 5:07 PM

I can't see the sites trying to rig games. If they did some disgruntled employee would out them. And they make plenty of money with the rake as it is. And at FullTilt the max rake per hand is $3 which is reached at $60 in the pot so I don't see any benefit to the house in promoting bigger pots.

#**365** 28-07-2008, 2:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoBilliards

Its interesting how the guys with + ROIs never think online poker is rigged. Its only the people who are net losers that make this claim. Im tired of the whole argument. Best way to sum it up is this. If you think its rigged dont play. Simple as that. What does it say about a person who thinks its rigged against him yet he makes deposits every week????????

There is more to it than this. I believe that the US government needs to regulate and audit them. Have independent audit of finance and how the random card gen works. If people feel hurt by the bad beats and then feel that the sites might be rigged than maybe they'll stop playing. Less players = worse poker eco. I wonder how many players stopped depositing after Absolute Poker & Ultimatebet?

#**366** 28-07-2008, 9:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Four Dogs

Richard, is that 21229 new hands, or a running total?

Sorry FD thats a running total. Moved my BR to pokerstars (FT Rake way too high at 10NL) So heres my Stars stats so far.

Played 6596
AA dealt: 29
Win rate 96.55%
% Dealt: 0.440

KK dealt: 34
Win rate: 82.35%
% Dealt: 0.515

#**367** 28-07-2008, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard7787

Sorry FD thats a running total. Moved my BR to pokerstars (FT Rake way too high at 10NL) So heres my Stars stats so far.

Played 6596
AA dealt: 29
Win rate 96.55%
% Dealt: 0.440

KK dealt: 34
Win rate: 82.35%
% Dealt: 0.515

Thanks Richard. I'll try to update this tonight.

I have a request from all the Regs. Please ignore all the RIGGED noise. There's nothing there that hasn't been discussed ad nauseum. Unless someone has something intelligent to add, replying to moonbats just serves to pollute the spirit of the thread.

#**368** 29-07-2008, 4:23 PM

I do not think that poker sites are rigged at all. People think that because their aa gets busted or they do not get it that the site is rigged. The purpose of a raise is to get your hand hopefully in a two hand situation, however people tend to play differently and call big raises more when they have no one looking at them acrossa table. They are in the privacy of their homes, the only person that hold them responsible is themselves. ( Who cares what a player cals you at the table that you will probably never see again.) So when you have your normal three to four callers, sometimes more, the likliehood of our monster hands getting beat increases. In the end these monster hands are just a pair, the second lowest hand you can have. Can you really blame the guy on the button calling when three people have already called the raise, even with seemingly nothing? Four card flushes, runner runner straights, two pairs coming up to beat your one is just as much part of a live game as it is an internet game..it's cool that you took time to track this though! Anyways, that is my opinion... I am a free roll pro! Take this advice to heart...

!

#**369** 29-07-2008, 5:45 PM

nice post, NCgirl, good advice there about AA only being a pair.

#**370** 29-07-2008, 11:58 PM

“The recipe for perpetual ignorance is: Be satisfied with your opinions and content with your knowledge.”

-Elbert Hubbard

Thank you Richard for this

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard7787

Update for you:

Full Tilt:

21229
Aces: 96
% Dealt: 0.452
Win rate: 94.79% (not needed but looks good to me) :P

Kings: 98
% Dealt: 0.452
Win Rate: 92.86%

Yes I know, a running total.

and this

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard7787

Sorry FD thats a running total. Moved my BR to pokerstars (FT Rake way too high at 10NL) So heres my Stars stats so far.

Played 6596
AA dealt: 29
Win rate 96.55%
% Dealt: 0.440

KK dealt: 34
Win rate: 82.35%
% Dealt: 0.515

Which gives us this

#**371** 01-08-2008, 2:39 AM

where do you get this kind of information??? is there a site, i see poker tracker in this thread, is that like shark scope? can i see on there these kind of stats?
i dont think its rigged, if you use large, trustworthy sites it shouldnt be a problem. i watch professional poker alot and there are many times where big hands are against each other, its poker. i think there are many things to question if you are going to but the AA-KK just stands out because people get mad

#**372** 01-08-2008, 6:48 AM

good data. I think tracking percentage of flushes hit would be better. Like how many times you have suited cards vs. how many times you hit the flush.

#**373** 02-08-2008, 4:17 PM

i think that if anyone that plays poker think it's rigged, they need to stop playing, i've been playing for a short period online & think it's amazing how many players i see saying it's rigged, do they not realize that poker as well as many card games is not masterable, & if online & in casinos & any other gambling settings they favor the house

#**374** 03-08-2008, 12:00 AM

only part that i feel is rigged , is that when you sit at a table and all of a sudden 3 people come to your table and play a few hands and the same 3 leave all at once without saying a word.

#**375** 03-08-2008, 4:43 PM

that's not rigged that just collusion

#**376** 03-08-2008, 10:58 PM

It's great that people would like to keep stats....but without knowing all the hands dealt all the time you won't get an accurate picture of how many times the hands ARE dealt. 1 person or a few people is NOT accurate....although it is a good idea.

#**377** 04-08-2008, 2:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lizasback

i think that if anyone that plays poker think it's rigged, they need to stop playing, i've been playing for a short period online & think it's amazing how many players i see saying it's rigged, do they not realize that poker as well as many card games is not masterable, & if online & in casinos & any other gambling settings they favor the house

I agree - if you're convinced these games are rigged - meaning that the winner is predetermined - you need to stop playing. If you're in on the rigging, then by all means, you wouldn't be complaining about it - you'd be the one pulling your fourth deuce on the river against Aces full of Kings. The fact is sh*t happens, bad beats happen, and suckouts happen, and there's nothing that can be done about it.

Personally speaking, if *I* believed the games were rigged, I would never play - in a rigged situation, you can only expect to lose long term.

#**378** 04-08-2008, 6:24 PM

Where do you go to see number of hands dealt vs. number of times dealt Aces? Or do you just keep a running total

#**379** 04-08-2008, 10:33 PM

AA is not rigged, sorry everyone. If you actually kept track of percentages, you would realize you probably do win 4/5 times the money is all in preflop. But after the flop, its how you play it...if the flop comes 910J with a flush draw, you've got to learn to fold...someone could easily have QK, AKs, 10J, etc...the only thing that pisses me off about AA is that I usually can't get action with it, and when I do I am unable to put others on hands and sometimes make bad calls

#**380** 04-08-2008, 11:51 PM

i always look at it as what does the site stand to gain by rigging games? they make all their money off rakes and fees they could care less how people win

#**381** 05-08-2008, 6:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Four Dogs

I know we're all sick and tired of the on-line rigged debate. I've been trolling this site for 3 years and it just never seems to end, and the recent Absolute fiasco hasn't helped matters, never mind that what happen there actually had more to do with inexcusably loose security measures rather than actual RIGGING.

The logic behind the belief that the sites rig the game is ALWAYS the same and NEVER backed up by any facts. The belief is that the sites somehow profit from increased rakes by pitting big hands against eachother.

"Now why is it rigged...well like many people here have said, its because of the amount of rake they get...now alot of idiots dont know the bigger the pot, the more they rake...they also dont realise if there are MORE MONSTER HANDS ie, AA, AK, KK, there are going to be more all ins, the more all ins, the more you deposit once again..."

This quote is from a recent thread, but really, it's just one of hundreds and there's nothing unique about it. What surprises me is that this belief persists despite the fact that due to programs like Poker Tracker, these inane assertions are easily verified or dispelled.

So lets test it. Let's keep it simple though. I'd like any of you who actually track their HH with some sort of software like Poker Tracker or Poker Office to post the number of ring hands you've tracked (no rake in tourneys right?) along with the number of times you've been dealt AA. Also, to sort the cheaters from the honest we should break the numbers apart by site. If the argument holds water then we should all be seeing hands like AA or KK more often then expected. I think the chances of being dealt AA or any pair is like 220:1 or about 4.5%

I'll start.

Site: Full Tilt
Number of ring hands: 16,901 (I've actually played about 3x that number but I lost my DB about a year ago)
Dealt AA: 68 (a little low)
Expected: 77
I am dealt AA: 1/248.5 hands = .402%

Site: Poker Stars
NRH: 5323
Dealt AA: 36 (a little high)
Expected: 24
I am dealt AA: 1/147.86 hands = .676%

Total
NRH: 22454
Dealt AA: 106 (a statistical bullseye)
Expected: 102
I am dealt AA: 1/211.83 hands = .4545%

I put alot more info in here than we need.
Just put the hands and times dealt AA and I'll do the math. I'll try to keep a running tally going, but I don't plan on being around much in the next few days so anyone may feel free to update it.

Cheers and Merry Christmas.

This is a realy good article keep up the good work as this topic will never go away.

#**382** 06-08-2008, 7:24 PM

Didn't they do this analysis on 2+2 recently. Expected results....online poker is not rigged.

#**383** 08-08-2008, 1:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeya2727

how do you find your hand results/ percentages on full tilt?

Most people are using Poker Tracker or some other similar software to track their results. If you're serious about the game and don't already have it, I recommend it. GL

#**384** 08-08-2008, 1:46 AM

Since my last post...

Site: Pokerstars
Number of ring hands: 150094
Dealt AA: 672
Expected: 679
I am dealt AA: 1 in 223 hands
Won: %91.2

#**385** 08-08-2008, 9:21 PM

I don't play enought to keep stats but I found that happening alot at Absolute Poker. Anyone else? Lots of pairs dealt and was nervous to go all in with AA


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