Question about Poker Outs?

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SwoleRake

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To start things off, im 19 years old. Started playing poker a month ago, picked up on it pretty quick. Thought I was a "Poker Prodigy" when playing with my friends, quickly found out im not Gods gift to the poker secene. But none the less i love this game and would love to get better at it. Looking at some stragety, im still trying to figure out "Outs"

If Im holding K,10 off suit and the flop is


7 of diamonds, 3 of hearts and 6 of spades.

Are my outs still 6, because of the 3K's and 310's, and if the pot odds are good I should bet because I have a 24 chance of a K or 10 coming up?

Since using Phil Gordons rule of 4 and 2? As 4 times 6 is 24% on the turn and 2 times 6 is 12%? That just seems so grossly high. But I would love it if it was true.

Thank you- Rake.
 
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Caesura

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Technically you are correct, but whether you are going to win the hand in that situation is a more important consideration.

"Outs" are better described as cards that will improve your hand to one that is close to unbeatable
 
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SwoleRake

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Technically you are correct, but whether you are going to win the hand in that situation is a more important consideration.

"Outs" are better described as cards that will improve your hand to one that is close to unbeatable

Cool, is it common to not hit anything on the flop and decide to go from there, with lets say K,A? I understand pot odds come into play after you figured out your OUT card percentage.
 
darkassassin89

darkassassin89

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When considering outs a lot of times you are behind in the current hand. Bc you are looking to catch a card to improve your hand.

Your new to poker and I suggested sticking to an ABC strategy for now until you become aware of many many other factors in your game and the game of other regs you start to come a cross more often.

Welcome to the forum, we have a great learning poker section.

Somewhere on this site haha

Been years since I visited. But if you are serious about getting better play ABC

Raise good hands, bet your good hands, check missed hand and dead hands ( things that u know u will lose no matter what)

And do your best to not call all ins unless you have 2 pair or better :)

Hope this gets you started. We turn fish into sharks here ;$
 
micromachine

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Yes you have an approximately 24% chance of hitting a K or a T on the turn or river.

That doesn't mean you have a 24% chance of winning the hand...someone may already have a hand you can't beat like a flopped set, or if you hit a K it's possible someone has AK, KQ or KJ all of which would beat you.

Whether to bet or not with overcards that miss the flop depends on several factors such as whether you were the preflop raiser, whether you are in position, how many opponents you are up against, how likely your opponent(s) is to fold to a cbet, your position and your table image.
 
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gnarus

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Outs are defined as an unseen card that if drawn is likely to win the hand. I don't see either as a true Out in this case as even a 10 or k leaves you behind a good percentage of hands. When I think of outs it's usually to any nut, 2 hole card flush, pocket pair Set, 2 hole card straight.

But for the sake of argument let's do the math to draw a 10 or k. The only time you would multiply by 4 is if your on the flop and your opponent is all in. Then you are guaranteed two cards by calling. If on the flop & not allin you should make your flop decision by comparing Pot odds to 2 x outs and then on the turn 2 x outs. You also can think about implied odds which is a different beast.

This works because there are about 50 unknown cards so each card has about a 2 percent chance of coming up. If you want exact odds just divide your outs by the number of unknown cards.
 
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SwoleRake

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When considering outs a lot of times you are behind in the current hand. Bc you are looking to catch a card to improve your hand.

Your new to poker and I suggested sticking to an ABC strategy for now until you become aware of many many other factors in your game and the game of other regs you start to come a cross more often.

Welcome to the forum, we have a great learning poker section.

Somewhere on this site haha

Been years since I visited. But if you are serious about getting better play ABC

Raise good hands, bet your good hands, check missed hand and dead hands ( things that u know u will lose no matter what)

And do your best to not call all ins unless you have 2 pair or better :)

Hope this gets you started. We turn fish into sharks here ;$

Thanks alot, just googled ABC texas hold em strategy, have alot to read haha.

Yes you have an approximately 24% chance of hitting a K or a T on the turn or river.

That doesn't mean you have a 24% chance of winning the hand...someone may already have a hand you can't beat like a flopped set, or if you hit a K it's possible someone has AK, KQ or KJ all of which would beat you.

Whether to bet or not with overcards that miss the flop depends on several factors such as whether you were the preflop raiser, whether you are in position, how many opponents you are up against, how likely your opponent(s) is to fold to a cbet, your position and your table image.

Ah, okay many factors I see, I always thought it was just the pot odds percentage versus the percentage of outs and if your outs are higher you call or raise.

Outs are defined as an unseen card that if drawn is likely to win the hand. I don't see either as a true Out in this case as even a 10 or k leaves you behind a good percentage of hands. When I think of outs it's usually to any nut, 2 hole card flush, pocket pair Set, 2 hole card straight.

But for the sake of argument let's do the math to draw a 10 or k. The only time you would multiply by 4 is if your on the flop and your opponent is all in. Then you are guaranteed two cards by calling. If on the flop & not allin you should make your flop decision by comparing Pot odds to 2 x outs and then on the turn 2 x outs. You also can think about implied odds which is a different beast.

This works because there are about 50 unknown cards so each card has about a 2 percent chance of coming up. If you want exact odds just divide your outs by the number of unknown cards.

If on the flop & not allin you should make your flop decision by comparing Pot odds to 2 x outs and then on the turn 2 x outs.



So make the decision for the flop always 2 times our outs for both pre-turn and after the turn card is placed down?


Thanks so much guys.
 
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Caesura

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Cool, is it common to not hit anything on the flop and decide to go from there, with lets say K,A? I understand Pot odds come into play after you figured out your OUT card percentage.

Very common. I think it's a one in three chance of hitting the flop. Pot odds are always present, eg if you are small blind with 58 and everyone limps then you have great odds to call but bad odds if there is a raise before you.
Most pot odds calculations will be made post flop though.
 
Arjonius

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When you use the rule of four, you should learn to remember a couple of things. One is that it only applies if you get to see both the turn and the river; for example, if you're all in pre- or on the flop.

However, it's pretty common to face a bet on the flop with the likelihood that you'll face another on the turn. In these cases, the rule of 2 estimates your probability of hitting an out on the turn, and if you miss, its the same on the river. The situation isn't the same because you only get to see the river when you call the turn bet which you won't always be in position to do.

There's also the concept of partial, effective or discounted outs. As a simplified example, let's say you're drawing to a baby flush on the flop. Nine cards will make it for you, but none of them give you the nuts. So you have 0 outs to the nuts, but hitting the flush still gives you a good chance to win the pot. Let's assume you estimate it will win 75% of the time. Your effective outs are 9 cards that make the flush x 75% = 6.75. If you're all in or are certain to see the turn and river because you're never going to fold,you can then use the rule of 4 to estimate that you have about a 4 x 6.75 % chance to win the pot. As above, it's more complex if / when there will be further betting.
 
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finalsback

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the odds are correct but you will probably lose money in the long run if your base your decisions on the odds and not the circumstances of the hand :)
 
wagon596

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Not sure I would be playing those two cards. But yes the 4-2 is a quick way to figure percents after the flop. Just remember that math is not the only thing that matters when you are playing poker.
 
duggs

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download pokerstove and play around with it imo. not only can you look at how certain hands play against each other on different board textures, but when you are ready you can look at how a hand plays against a range of hands, and finally how ranges of hands play against each other.
 
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SwoleRake

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When you use the rule of four, you should learn to remember a couple of things. One is that it only applies if you get to see both the turn and the river; for example, if you're all in pre- or on the flop.

However, it's pretty common to face a bet on the flop with the likelihood that you'll face another on the turn. In these cases, the rule of 2 estimates your probability of hitting an out on the turn, and if you miss, its the same on the river. The situation isn't the same because you only get to see the river when you call the turn bet which you won't always be in position to do.

There's also the concept of partial, effective or discounted outs. As a simplified example, let's say you're drawing to a baby flush on the flop. Nine cards will make it for you, but none of them give you the nuts. So you have 0 outs to the nuts, but hitting the flush still gives you a good chance to win the pot. Let's assume you estimate it will win 75% of the time. Your effective outs are 9 cards that make the flush x 75% = 6.75. If you're all in or are certain to see the turn and river because you're never going to fold,you can then use the rule of 4 to estimate that you have about a 4 x 6.75 % chance to win the pot. As above, it's more complex if / when there will be further betting.


Arjonis, Excuse my ignorance but I have a question about the rule of 4 and 2, if the situation is im not all in, why do I still multiply by only 2 on turn and on the river? Why does the rule of 4 and 2 only include when you are guarantee to see both the turn and the river cards?

So when people are placing their bets they make the decision by multiplying their outs by 2 and comparing that percentage to the Pot Odds to see if its profitable in the long run?
 
MediaBLITZ

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Ah, okay many factors I see, I always thought it was just the pot odds percentage versus the percentage of outs and if your outs are higher you call or raise.

That is how it works to determine your action, but as was stated you cannot just assume that any old out that improves your hand will win you the pot. For example, you hitting the T on the turn does you no good at all if the other guy has JJ. It helps your hand (might get another T on the river - yeah right) but it does not make it a winner - not even a probable winner.
A more practical use of counting outs is you have KT and the flop is :qh4::js4: :4d4: . You have 8 outs to a big straight (an A or 9) that, if you hit one of those outs, probably makes you dominate to win the hand.

why do I still multiply by only 2 on turn and on the river? Why does the rule of 4 and 2 only include when you are guarantee to see both the turn and the river cards?

If you are playing correctly, you are playing street by street and reassessing your position in the hand along the way (each street gets one rule of two). If there is still the possibility you will fold after the turn then using the rule of four is not relevant. The rule of four comes into play if your post flop play means there is a guarantee of a show down - either he went all in and you called or you go all in. Then you know you will be seeing both streets (turn and river) and can effectively use the rule of four. Until then using it would be very misleading to the determination of your action. make sense?

Using the above hand lets say another 4 comes out on the turn and the other shoves. After you say Oh shit to yourself you can see you have 8 outs with only one street to go. 2x8=16%
16% versus a shove - and lets say you somehow even have the pot odds to call (like 5 to 1). Yes, the math is there but what is also there is the possibility that the other player turned a full house (remember that JJ we talked about?) So even if you hit your outs on the river you might end up regretting going by pot odds alone. Once again it comes down to your read.
 
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FlopDaNutz93

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If you have two overcards to the flop, you should always consider the fact that you may be drawing dead, or virtually dead. Two overcards to an uncoordinated rainbow flop does not mean you have six outs. For example, let's say you have KQ offsuit and the flop comes J 7 2 rainbow with two others in the pot. If one of them has two-pair or a set (3 of a kind), you're drawing virtually dead unless you somehow make runner runner for a straight or a higher two pair.

The best thing to do when you see a flop like this holding two overcards is to bet or raise a small bet in order to get information, to see where you are in the hand. If you get raised, someone probably has a jack and you'll most likely be looking for a K or Q. If you get flat called, watch out, someone probably has a monster and is fishing for your chips. Basically, if you get any resistance here and/or the turn doesn't help you, it's time to abort mission and drop the hand. And even if you spike a K or Q on the turn, if someone raises you or puts it all in against you here, think carefully about your next move and ask yourself "What can I beat here? What would he flat-call on the flop and raise the turn with?"

Sets are silent killers. Be VERY wary of them.
 
complex1

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it all matters what kind of players your against and what kind of hand you think he has. K,10 is not a very good hand unless your in position"on the button or -1 from. but yes for you to make a hand pre-flop you would have 6, but post flop you can always pick up more outs like strait draws, 2 pair ect...
 
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FlopDaNutz93

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it all matters what kind of players your against and what kind of hand you think he has. K,10 is not a very good hand unless your in position"on the button or -1 from. but yes for you to make a hand pre-flop you would have 6, but post flop you can always pick up more outs like strait draws, 2 pair ect...

Or your opponent could have flopped a set and you'd be all but dead.
 
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