Probability question

#1 30th November 2011, 2:26 AM

I have been fortunate enough to run into smaller PPs 4x when I've had KK and had the coins go all in preflop. I've lost 3 of the 4.

I would like to find out the odds of that happening. I think I need to use binomial distribution.

Assuming that I was 80:20 going in, what is the formula to calculate the probability of winning all 4, winning 3, splitting, winning 1, and winning none?

Any stat pros here? Thanks.

#2 30th November 2011, 5:47 AM

Calculating the probability of these events is pretty meaningless unless you are planning to compare these 4 instances against every other set of 4 instances in your entire database. Selectively choosing these 4 hands because they stand out to you and then retrospectively calculating the odds is just nonsense.

#3 1st December 2011, 9:20 PM

The point is I would like to know the formula for calculating the probability of outcome distribution.

I could have said what are the chances that I complete my flush draw 4 times in 5 chances. It’s the same point. Those example I cited just happen to be recent hands that happened to me so I used it as an example.

#4 1st December 2011, 11:05 PM

Yeah, its binomial distribution.

The calculations r pretty straight forward.
loose 4 win 0: 0.2^4
loose 3 win 1: 0.2^3*0.8*(4choose1)
loose 2 win 2: 0,2^2*0,8^2*(4choose2)
and so on.

But you are probably guilty of data snooping.
And in that case you will always find 4 suckouts in a row provided you go through a big enough sample.

#5 2nd December 2011, 12:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by only_bridge

Yeah, its binomial distribution.

The calculations r pretty straight forward.
loose 4 win 0: 0.2^4
loose 3 win 1: 0.2^3*0.8*(4choose1)
loose 2 win 2: 0,2^2*0,8^2*(4choose2)
and so on.

But you are probably guilty of data snooping.
And in that case you will always find 4 suckouts in a row provided you go through a big enough sample.

This is what I was looking for. Thanks

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