So the assumption is that all player are equal (with respect to skill).
To place first in the 200 man MTT is 1/200 = 0.005(probability) = 0.5%
To win at least one of four 12-man S&Gs is 1-(1-(1/12))^4 = 29.4%
[To win 1 12-man S&G = 1/12 = 0.833.. (this is the probability)
To NOT win = 1-0.833.. = 0.9166...
To NOT win 4 in a row = 0.9166..*0.9166..*0.9166*0.9166 = 0.706
So to win at least one is 1-0.706 = 0.294 (probability) = 29.4% ]
Remember that the prize money will be lower in the S&Gs so you'd want to include your likely return in your analysis to work out what's best.
You should find that both are losing propositions (if everyone is equally skilled) since rake makes it -EV.
Luckily, not everyone is equally skilled and if you hang around in cardschat your sure to get some help finding an edge in your preffered game.
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