Power to believe

Well, here's a question for all the poker players, Does believing in your own skills really matter, or is it the cards that matter? I Know the cards matter don't get me wrong, but what I'm trying to ask is really, Lets assume you had 3 good winning days, and they weren't the biggest cashes but they weren't small either, now with that being said it could all be rounded up to Variance correct? Or an Upswing, or some-sort of fate/destiny theory correct?

Now lets assume that you don't believe in any of this and you think it's your skills which enabled you to win (Follow me), then wouldn't that get your ego boosting, and is that not how one takes a leap/tumble (down to earth from cloud 9, with the Little People)-(Joke inside of a Joke btw)...Now lets assume you believe in Variance, then does that not mean that your on the positive end of it, and there will come a time when you'll be on the losing end of it, and there-fore skill really had nothing to do with it!

Lets look at my example I've bragged over and over about how I've turned $10 (From a Free-Roll, into 1300+), in less then 5 days, does this mean it was Variance and not my skill playing? Not the spots which I chose to shove bluff "Because I believed that the player was 85% going to fold"...Not my Aggression but Variance? I'm really asking because I felt like I was Actually Improving my game (Being that I was A losing player for the longest of times, Until I refused to deposit anymore on any site), and This "Upswing/Variance", takes all my glee out of the fact that I'm actually winning on the Lower MTTs, and the more I think about it, The more I feel like It's not me Improving but my luck, Like I'm on the +Variance, Does that make sense?

Any Thoughts are most welcome


Here's what they say on Shark-Scope about me btw

Does this all mean that It's not really me, but Variance? and that my skill had nothing to do with it?

Stop thinking about it and keep playing and learning. Your roi is of course gonna drop big time just keep trying to win and better your play dont overthink the issue.

I will say most people at the top of their field believe in themselves more than people at the bottom but they got to where they are through hard work.

lolz @ Quote

As far as i think, its the card that matters way more than your skills and all! It much has to do with your luck, i mean

Do you know when to steal blinds? Do you know when to shove/fold? With what range of hands? Do you know when you still have fold equity? Etc, etc...

These things are learned over time. Of course you could make the right move and get squashed by pocket AA, but these and many other acquired skills will greatly increase your chances of going deep in tourneys more often.

You are missing a few 0's behind your 122 games played.

Any discussion of variance with that small of a sample is kinda pointless.

Yeah, the whole question of 'believing' in variance is quite ridiculous. Like Dusty Schmidt says (just reading his book atm, lol), it's not a question of when variance will effect you, as long as you don't stop playing poker it will bite you in the arse, and it will smooch you on the lips, but it's how you deal with it.

From what I can gather, MTT are much more variance based... If you want to reduce variance play as many cash game hands as possible? Well, not 'reduce' it, but 'iron the creases out of it,' so to speak...

And this whole 'believing' thing when it comes to decision-making in poker... It's not like that at all... The best poker players in the world will, in most situations (not on High Stakes Poker or whatever cuz they're playing against other players of the same elite standard so that's a freak circumstance), KNOW that they're making the best decisions in the game based on the information they have gathered. They won't have to 'believe' in their instincts or whatever. I mean maybe they will in marginal situations against other tough opponents, but when they're grinding and making business day-to-day from the fish in the sea, this isn't how it goes.

The answer to your question is both. It is a game of both skill and luck. There will be times when your lucky and times when your unlucky. Everyone experiences swings and variance is a sometimes harsh reality (NOT an opinion). The trick is to not let the luck effect your skill by changing the way you play. If u get it all in with the best of it and lose that doesn't mean that you wouldn't do the same thing next time. The winning players are the ones that have enough skill to beat the luck in the long run...your ROI at the end of the year...not the end of the day.

Poker is like any other job. If you expend great effort in study and practice you will improve. This does not mean you will be an all-star, the mental or physical equipment may be missing but you will develop to the limit. good luck.

Actually, I think poker, maybe cards generally are different in some respects than anything else. In holdem, you can play great but still get a negative result. I can't think of too many competitive pursuits where you can outplay your opponent(s) and still lose. But this is a common occurance in poker. (just now, I mean right now, I called someone's all-in with K Q. He had J 3 . He won. Lost half of my chips). Imagine in tennis, you serve an Ace only it's not an Ace until after they flip a coin to see if it's your point or you have to reserve it. That's kinda like poker.

LoLzaskates @ Quote

If this was the case I am putting down my lack of big winnings down being unlucky and not the fact I am too lazy to learn how to improve my game much.

I really need to learn how to multi quote lol but its right that the long run is very long sometimes you run hot, sometimes you couldnt hit a barn door from 2 feet away with a baseball. I remember when I used to look at sharkscope alot when I first started playing, didnt improve my game one bit. Trying to improve all aspects of your play will negate any "bad luck" (varience) its hard to lose a flip when people are scared to flip against you because you have only shown down the nuts, thats not luck thats experience and learning how to read the situation at hand.

in time, if you play well within your bankroll, it is skill that matters. swings come and go as they please, luck comes and goes but in the end, in years there will be only the skill that matters.

Nice post .
I think in MTT or SNG games ,luck is important.
You can badbet people.
Like about 20 in MTT.
You will go to Final table,
U have A10 and you have 13Big Blind,what should you do.
If you are EP, allin or fold ?
If you all in,deep stack call you with A9,lol
Funny thing happen,Flop 1092,turn K,river 9.
So I think lucky is important.
If you are luck ,you will double up, and have enough chips to your tournament life.

yeah thats why i play cash games, because this happened too many times before.

Luck is important in successful poker, we all know that.
You can't win a tourney or cash at a Cash Game without a little luck.
Skills are also important, knowing when to steal, reading your opponents,
knowing the math and playing a smart game.

One thing I think we are ignoring from the OP is the 'ego' thing.
Sometimes you get on a rush, tourney or cash, and start thinking you can't
lose. Then you play that hand that you really know you shouldn't and then it's back to the drawing board.
That's not variance though, that's your ego getting in the way.

Lately I have been playing well and winning several SnG's as well as cashing in several ring games.
I was playing a small cash game recently and doing well, playing TAG
and accumulating some profit when I was dealt 88 in late position.

I raised PF and got a re-raise from a very tight player.
I thought about it and my instinct said go away BUT I called.
Flop came 8A4 rainbow and I thought I was good but my raise was re-raised all in.
Again I thought about it and again I thought I should get out BUT no, I called.
Sure enough he had a set of A's and killed my set of 8's.
Needless to say I lost most of my stack.

Now this could be variance getting me or it could have been a combination of variance
and my own ego thinking instead of following my instincts.

Watch yourself, sometimes we are our own worse enemies.