Is it possible to lose 10% of your BR and be playing well

I'm making this thread because of another along the results vs. profit debate that happened awhile ago. At that time, I was on the side of profit...well that has changed.

As you can see by the subject, I have infact lost about 10% of my BR in the last week. I can honestly say with the exception of one SnG (guilty of tilting a little on that one), I have maintained good solid play and have run into a string of bad luck. How do I know this...well, when I'm doing well in SnG's, my win percentage is usually between 20-30% of the overall hands. For the past week, that has been reduced to 10-15%. I know some may say, you should be trying to steal more pots to get that percentage up and at one time that would've been valid. However, I'm telling you that if I wasn't stealing pots, that percentage would be at 10% or lower!!!

So where am I going with this. Well, despite the bad run of cards (which I hope my percentages somewhat prove out) I have been making it to the final table the majority of the time in the jackpot SnG's at Titan. There was a time (before I joined CC *cough*) where a bad run like this would've crippled me and I would've been busting out early and often. The fact that I haven't been shows me that I'm improving as a player and I know the profits will be back when I get through this string of bad breaks

Of course it's possible to lose 10% of your bankroll playing well. It depends a lot on how big your bankroll is though.

Does it? 10% is 10% whether it's of $100 or $10,000. Either way, though, I don't think that's so bad a swing that it means you must be playing bad. I think a run of bad cards could do it. Why not go over some of the key hands that led to your losses in these SNGs and see if you played the hands right?

It's certainly possible that it's just luck, though. How many SNGs we talking?

Very good advice Beriac, thanks. There was a time I wouldn't go back and look at my recent failures. However, I have and while there are some hands I'd like to have some hands back (wouldn't we all ), there isn't too much I'd change. Without turning this into a bad beat post...a few examples

1. 3 handed situation: get dealt QQ and short stacked. Push and get beat by AA

2. 6 handed situation: get pocket 10's raise and isolate one person. flop comes 10 K 7 rainbow. I push with a big bet, get raised all in. I put the person on AK and call..he trumps my set of 10's with a set of K's!!!

As far as the number of SnG's, it's probably around 40 or so. The point of my post is to let people know you're not always playing poorly if you go on a losing streak. I know I used to think that way and that thought process has changed!!

Is it different to lose 10% of your bankroll playing .5/1 FL with a $1k bankroll than to lose 10% playing .5/1 with a $200 bankroll?

That's better than being left with only 10% of your starting bankroll!

Yes, you can lose 10% of the roll and still be playing solid poker. How fast you lose that 10% depends on the level of game you are playing but that is really irrelevant to it.

You can make solid poker decisions to just get hosed by donkeys and the poker gods. Everyone goes through the stages of getting paid off and then paying off someone else.

SnG's you can loose you tournament life with just one bad hand and you eventually get eaten up by the blinds by the end. People are forced to push on draws and just top pair. You are pushing advantages of 55/45 to 60/40 most of the time. Draws will still suck out on you about 36 precent of the time. It does not even take a really bad streak of cards to lose several of these in a row.

As for the hands you described, they happen to everyone. It just makes you think when they happen close together. I have had days where I get KK 3 times and all three times they faced AA and lose. It happens and that is why it is gambling and not completely a game of skill.

Just remember skill pays out at the end of the month, luck at the moment.

Then you mean it depends on whether you're playing within your BR limits.

Yes, Medeiros, of course it's possible to lose that much of your BR if you're playing well. The variance at tables can sometimes take over, and the element in luck varies past what it's normal % would be, and you go on a losing streak.

Sounds like you played those hands fine, and I wouldn't be worried about this loss - if it's bothering you, then take a break and clear your mind.

Yes, easily. This is why we have bankrolls.

I also feel obligated to point out that "playing well" doesn't equal profit unless you're playing against people who worse. You're not rewarded for good play, you're rewarded for outplaying your opponents. Skill != profit.

Yes. But implicit in my statement was an assumption that he's playing within his bankroll, whatever the bankroll. What tables you're playing doesn't seem like the same as how large is your bankroll, to me, but I am not a linguistics major so who knows.

My point was that the 10% question was one of "can losing this much of one's bankroll be bad luck", and that it's the % that counts here, not the $.*




*: Assuming reasonable bankroll management practices.

im not sure how 10's can improve to a set and be beaten by AK that improves to a set.

HUm.......I take swings in my stake around 30% sometimes more. BUT there is one big difference for me

Every winning session I pull half the profit and put it into my life. So maybe my swing is far less. But I am still playing the same stack since last April

Player 1...10 10

Player 2..A...K

Flop...10....J.....K

Turn....K

River ...K

Or

Player 1....10 ....10

Player 2....A....K

Flop......10....J....K

Turn.......K

River..... Ace

Joose is talking about this above

I think you misread what he said:

He just thought he had AK, but he actually was holding Kings.

Yep thats right

I suddenly felt a desperate urge to add this:

If you've never had a 10% bankroll downswing before, you have no idea what's coming your way.

Be very afraid.

Here's a pretty depressing 2k hands at $3/$6 limit shorthanded:

Attached Images

3-6_downswing.JPG (46.8 KB, 27 views)

now, where have I seen that before

:/ Now try all that in one hand

Chuck: I realize that I made the image a bit too small, but the scale on the left isn't dollars; it's big bets. With a standard suggestion of 300BB for playing, these 2k hands would have cut my bankroll in half.

Oh I see ...............

Leak in your game or variance or what?
The only reason I can imagine you losing at that level would be the variance...which I'm sure is MASSIVE

That's variance. I mean, there are leaks in my game (thinking that there aren't is foolish) but nothing so massive as to cause a drop like that. In fact, my leaks are probably smaller than most of my opponents; I usually win. But I had a rough time at specifically $3/$6 for awhile.

It can be pretty massive. Today, I lost a 35BB (which is HUGE in limit) pot on the river;

44 vs. 77 vs. JJ. Flop comes
4-7-9.

JJ-guy overvalues his overpair, and me (sevens) and the lower set go to war with him squeezed in between. JJ-guy rivers a runner-runner flush.

In limit as in no-limit, you've got to win the big pots. Losing those key pots makes a very big difference in the short term. It sucks when it happens, but it happens.