Poker vs. Luck

Hey guys,

I was having an argument with a friend about Poker vs. Luck. Basically as an example he says that sometimes you need to call with rag hands because you can hit big hands and win money, but i keep insisting that mathematically calling with rag hands is a -EV even if he hits from time to time something big and gets money out of the raiser. Basically since i have read many books my mind is set into a +EV type of game. He never read any books about poker so he does not know anything about +/-EV and stuff like that(i`m not saying that people who never read books cant win but they have a bit different opinion on the game). Basically he has a mind of a chaser. Example i was fighting about.. He would chase the flush draw till the river because he believes when he hits it he will win big money. I on the other hand tell him that mathematically he will hit the flush less often on the river or turn then when he hits it. He still insists that he will make more money. Am i wrong here? i mean I understand people sometimes bluff and are able to get others of the hand when they sens weakness but over all if you chase like that 100000 hands arent your plays -EV?

it depends on weather your playing for fun or profit , if you play for fun then your friend is probably right, you should call some not-so-good hands.

it depends on pot odds also your going to hit your flush 20% if i read right. So if there is a 100 in the pot and you need to call 20 it's a good bet. I'm still noob at all the math though.

I was talking about situations where its against pot odds and when the EV is -. He still insists that if he does hit he can win big.. He plays more by a feeling then any odds and EV . If he feels he will hit it he will play it.

Yeah but the funny thing is he is making more money then me in cash games.. Thats whats i dont understand.. I make money also but he makes like 3x as more as i do.. He gambles a lot more, plays a lot looser and hits... Everytime i play against him he tends to outdraw me.. Ex. i got AQ i raise pre flop he calls me with T9 , flop comes A82 , I rasie 2/3 of the pot he calls , turn comes 7, I raise he calls... River? Q, giving me 2 pair.. and him? straight.. I raise he reraises me .. I try to put him on the hand.. and i`m unsure...i decide to look him up.. and he wins.. rubbing it in my face that SEE i end up winning more... Jesus it drives me insane...

The problem with playing junk hands like 8/3o is that if you hit it big it's not likely to help your opponents, so you don't get a lot of their chips in.
People play big hands for big pots, and what gives 8/3 a big hand is not going to give most openers a big hand.
So while you lose small pots over and over again as you draw, you do not win big pots when you win. So overall the wins do not compensate for the losses.

I mean, the flops that are going to be good for your 8/3 will be 8/8/x and 3/3/x and those cards are not likely to connect with people who raise pre-flop. Also, paired boards are an obvious danger so the villain is going to be more cautions about playing for a big pot. That's why set mining with small pairs is better, because when you do make a big hand it's disguised *and* if one of their cards flops or turns trips (a big hand) your set has turned into a full house, so you're likely to get his stack in.

If you have 8h/3d with a 8s/3h/Ad flop, and the villain has As/J+s, you might think "jackpot!" But the villain is going to draw out a win about 30% of the time.
But with thirteen different cards in the deck, and your opponent having two, how often will one be the X? Not very often.

Even if your opponent has a pair like T/T that Ace is going to scare him into keep the pot small. Heck, if the flop was 8/3/2 rainbow a scary face card will hit the board on the turn or river nearly 2/3 of the time (killing action) and he'll outdraw you about 25% of the time.

Basically, playing junk needs to hit ideal situations to win really big. Those situations do *not* come up enough to justify putting money in with those hands.
If you look up people's play statistics, the people who see the most flops are usually the biggest losers. There is a reason for this, and it's not bad luck.

If your friend says, "I meant limp with the junk hands on rare occasions" that's still bunk. You're going to hit the flop at the same rate and still have the same expected negative return.

Now, however, if you*raise* with junk on occasion that is a different story. This puts it into the realm of a bluff. You can win by taking the blinds pre-flop. You can win a big pot when you do hit hard because your hand is disguised because nobody opens with 8/3. You can also win because your raise indicated strength so you can take the pot on the missed flop with a continuation bet. Basically, you have a lot more ways to win.

Well I save my rag hands for the big blind,or maybe smal blind.
If i'm priced in i'll call with a few rag hands.
But just to flat call oop is not the way I choose to play my game.

If he's winning, why change. Maybe his style and intuation is of the paranormal variety.

What sites are you playin, the ones i play reward the river chasers more than what the odds would dictate.
With online poker there is always someone that just does not care and will call with any 2 and hit. ( especially against me )
I can be at 90%+ before riv. and i lose 75%, I don't think the real table odds are the same as online. If online was at real tables there would be alot of fights in the parking lot for the way people act and play.
jmho

Thanks for listening
I feel better now, well until next river card

A lot depend on if you are playing No Limit or Limit. In Limit, players are often getting the pot odds, and even the implied odds, to draw to the river. But, I assume that you are referring to No Limit Hold'em. You are only looking at EV and pot odds. He's playing implied odds to the hilt. As previously noted, a lot also depends on the texture of the table. If it is a passive table full of limpers, playing rags cheaply is a good strategy. Obviously, calling a raise with rags is a no win strategy.

here is my perspective sitting from the dealers chair....i have watched a lot of people chase to the river ...and watched them lose a lot of money....its alright if your sittin round with some homies...but if your serious about putting some coin in your pockets.. i highly recommend tossing your draw out early... for the OP let me ask you this how many times have you been in a hand ..playing"mathematically" correct and still had someone draw out and win???? me thinks skill and luck in poker are one in the same lol

I live and play in Trinidad. Typically the play is loose aggressive, which is great cos as an average player I can almost make a living playing 2 or 3 nights a week. The conversation often comes to skill versus luck. Most of us here would agree that the more skilled you are, the less luck is a factor. These guys on the other hand firmly believe the game is predominantly luck and the phrase "last card is poker" is popular which means lots of chasing to the river.

Personally I prefer to play a full table of players who strongly believe in luck any day of the week!!