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Poker - Poker, Skill or Luck? what %
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#106
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with poker as with life the more I learn the luckier I get
jmo |
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#107
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"Luck" encompasses too much to be definable, as it takes skill to know when to rely on luck.
In a tournament, there will be optimal times to shove pre-flop, even if you know you're an underdog. That is, skill lets you choose the optimal points to get lucky. There's a huge difference between "Bubba" shoving pre-flop with his Ah Kh on the button early in a tournament, and me shoving pre-flop with 5h 6h in middle position because my M is 5, and the pot is unchallenged, and there are only middle stacks yet to act, and we're close to the bubble. Should Bubba get called, he will probably be in a coin flip situation. Should I get called, I will probably be a 2:1 underdog. Even with a worse position and worse cards, my play is substantially better than his. So if we both get called by As Qs and we both lose, which of us got unluckiest? Even though he lost when the other guy was only 27% to win and I lost when the other guy was 60% to win I'd say that I was substantially unluckier. I was making the proper move for that situation and my opponant happened to have run into a hand. Bubba was making an improper move, exposing himself to unnecessary risk. Skill and luck are combined in so many decisions that it's difficult (if not impossible) accurately seperate the two. But what it comes down to is that the odds never change. The odds of any particular card hitting the board are the same for everyone. Luck offers nobody an advantage. So while luck is stronger than skill, over the long term it's a level playing field. The more you play, the more level/fair that field becomes. As a level playing field, skill is really the only factor that matters. |
