Poker, Skill or Luck? what %

Imho is 65% skills , 35% luck

I get what you are saying and I actually am winning, though not today...

My post actually has alot more in common with your post. I think that there are two things in poker that make you lose. Bad playing (also counting making a mistake) and bad luck. You can correct the 1st one, but the second there is nothing that you can do.
I do believe that overall the best players do the best in tourneys (where I think alot more luck is involved). Especially over the long term (how long is that though? lol). But my point with variance is that it is simply bad luck.
If I am second chip leader on my table, late in a tourney - then get sucked out on two hands right in a row (happens to me all the time, when everyone starts shoving every hand), now I am crippled. I got my hand in with the best of it, but the lower percentage hand won. Eventually a few hands later I am out and they are in. That is why I think that luck plays a great deal in the immediate future, especially in MTT though in STT and ring games as well.


I agree with this post. Tourney play is about gathering chips and holding onto them in order to survive. At least to the FT where you can usually get back to playing regular poker a bit (not shove shove fold fold). The short stack probably is always going to shove but you know what I mean.
The only problem with that is, bad luck will still knock you out of alot of tourneys. Even if you wait for the best time to get your money in, if you do it over and over, you are eventually going to either get a giant stack (if you were lucky in this tourney) or get knocked out (if you werent lucky).
The thing about MTT strategy is that it is designed to take luck account and give you better odds. That doesnt mean that alot of the times the best player wins the tourney. As a matter of fact on a case by case basis the best player probably doesnt win the tourney. They surely win more tourneys than the lesser player overall, but on a case by case basis the winner was the guy that was luckier that day.
To me MTT poker is about as high as 40% luck, in the 2x turbos and such, where what cards you are dealt will quickly decided if you are going to make it or not. In deep stack 30 min blind type tourneys luck is cut back to probably like 20%. I prefer the latter, but sometimes playing for 9 hours straight doesnt fit in my schedule.
Ring games are another story. I think that they are probably something like 25% luck in the very loose games and only like 10 or maybe 15% luck in the higher stakes/tighter games. The difference with the blind staying still and being able to come and go as you please makes alot of difference. Also lets say that you are buying in with 20 dollars. If it is a 20 dollar tourney, you only lose it once. If it is a ring game, you lose the 20 over and over which alot of the time makes the ring game player play alot tighter/smarter.
I dont mind when I sit at the 10 cent 180 man turbo and someone is playing around and they shove hand after hand. Or like a table I was at the other day, 6 of the players shoved first hand. It kept going like that for like the first 10 hands. lol I watched players sit shove get knocked out, lol.
That is fine with me. But when I was trying to get into the turbo takedown today (playing with my precious FPPs that I like more than money) and the table turned into a game like that, well that just sucks. I usually wait until I have a monster, but AK usually doesnt hold up when there are 5 people allin already. If I get lucky and it does (and yes I mean get lucky, better starting hand or not if it wins I got lucky if there were already 5 guys allin lol), but if it does hold up, usually in the next 10 hands that I play I will lose a few big ones and get knocked out. TBH in the takedown sat today I made it to 3rd before villian got runner runner which friggin pissed me off even more, but you get my point.

I mix up my play a lot when playing cash games. In cash games I play a lot of hands very aggressively. I tend to "get lucky" more often than others, but I also fall pre to more "unlucky bad beats". It's what makes sense if I play 3 X as many hands as someone else at the table.

without reading anything..... i'd say 70% luck , 30% skill

Perfect summary right there.

as hands played approaches infinity, luck factor approaches 0.

As post count approaches infinity in this thread, people continue to make unfounded claims using terms they refuse to even explain.

Luck refers to that which happens beyond a person's control.

In poker luck would be the cards you are dealt, skill is how you play the cards you are dealt.

For me the ratio would properbly 30% skill, i think i have a good pre-flop play (like the vast majority of players) 70% luck, my post-flop play stinks to high heaven

At least i have identified something to improve

Here's an example of how poker is not all luck. The quiz part is where people will show if they understand poker or think it's luck.

Background...
The guy on the button raises big or goes all-in about 60% of the time (when he's on the button).

Blinds 1000/2000 with 300 ante (9 players)

Button (holding 6K in chips) - raises to 6K all-in
SB - (holding 25K in chips) FOLDS
BB(you) - (holding 20K in chips) you have 45suited

What do you do and why?

Sorry for grave robbing, but...

Annette_15 whose real name I can't spell, well she did something like that and won a tournament. She covered the spot where her cards would appear and played solely on position and size of stacks. On the one hand, that's a lot of skill, on the other, that's a whole lot of luck too...

This really depends
Online the skill factor is much lower, considering the amount of donkeys and computer generated factors,,,, but there is always a huge amount of luck, seat positions and game play and also the program its self, it knows whos gonna get what and whats gonna fall.
BUT
live games and tourneys the skill level is a little higher, with the human element with tells, game play, you need to know a bit more than sitting behind a computer screen.
Sitting across from your opponent can give you a much better read on what they have in a live than over the internet,, personally i can bluff alot more online than i can live!!
BUT no matter live or online, the luck factor always outlays the skill

Don't know!
Watching some of the Gus Hansen games I think that man must have 101% of luck and In same time 101% of skills,balls like a bull,or you got to be totally crazy....For online game it's 90-10 luck,skills are for live tables,that's my opinion or should I say my (in)experience

by definition luck is chance that is blown out of proportion in our head.
Good luck is fueled by ego and bad luck is fueled by the lack there of.
So the opinion that luck is replaced by skill in the long run makes sense.
When you slowly stop playing the cards and start playing position, the player and the situation, you need less "luck" because you are making better decisions. Like the Full Tilt commercial says " Knowing when to throw away pocket kings..." Chance is always there, you just learn to know it for what it is.
Poker is not a card game ..... it is a mind game that happens to be played with cards.

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I've heard lots of people saying the difference between "short-term" and "long-term"

I've seen some online pros say it's all about the long-term, and if you play your cards right, your skill will be way more important than luck.

I'll say 85% skill 15% luck

My normal line is 98% patience, 1% luck , 1% skill, thats for online poker only.

Ok, I think we can solve this with a mathematical equation.
Excluding luck, Phil Hellmuth is supposed to win them all. Now, all you gotta do is check what percent Hellmuth has won, and that is the percent skill.

LOL

But seriously, I would agree with previous responses that luck is for the short run, and skill is for the long run. So for the short run, you could check what percent of WSOP events are won by amateurs, but then there would need to be some correction for the fact that there are many more amateurs in any given field than pros.... I'm convinced though that there is a way to come out with a reasonable mathematical answer to this question!

I basically consider the only real 'luck' in poker to be when I go all in with streets still to come and the luck is in what cards fall after that.

Although (especially in ring games) I now tend to think of EV instead and pay little attention to this kind of luck, which basically reduces the luck factor to 0. I know I'll have basically no variance from the expected value over my lifetime.

I didn't really explain myself well on that post did I?

What I really wanted to explain was that when there are 5 people in every pot, when every hand has a show down the skill factor is minimized greatly. How often have you had AA or KK in a online SNG and pushed and got 2 callers 1 with Q7o and another with AJo and Q7 gets there.

This is why game selection is important. There is no reason to play in a STT or cash game with 6 crazy players. If they are raising and reraising every hand with ATC it makes the game extremely difficult to put people on a range of hands. The first thing I do if I see someone raise or limp up front I decide the range of hands they might have, I then assign a range of hands in which I can call with, a range I can raise with, and and the rest I fold. Of course I mix it up from time to time as well, but most online players have NO range they can play ATC's, they'll call a reraise almost all the time with ATC's ect. Playing lower limit SNG's, MTT's, or cash games is really a game of Dodge the Donk. The problem is the Dodge the Donk is not a game of skill. You can make the correct dicision like just pushing when there is plenty in the pot and you have AA - the problem is you then have to dodge the donk calls which anywhere from 1 - 5 are calling. It makes it difficult to play that style.

i think it more skill then luck cause you can make player fold the best hand if you know how why play if you think the game is about luck you cant be lucky everyday lol o why would you play ? and what happen s if yoru not lucky for week lol stop till you luck comes back lol

I disagree quite necessary.
I think the technique is well more than luck, if we try to put
I suggest that in percentage 85% skill and 15% luck.
Poker is a brilliant game, we use a lot mathematics, tactics, I can not
say that it is game of luck.

I dont think luck enters into it at all if you are gaming, not gambling. All you will see is variance if you keep playing an optimal game, and a graph that rises to infinity.

I agree with others we have no real definition of the terms here so we are all speaking from different directions and there can be no consensus as to the orignial question, but 'luck' as it is commonly referred to plays no part in ones long term success as a poker player. Ask Stu Ungar (RIP), Chris Ferguson, or the countless others who make a living by using their skills, not relying on luck.

If I am winning its 90% skill, but if I am losing its all luck. Just kidding. I would like to know what luck is. Whats the definition?

IMHO variance is overrated. Before anyone yells at me, I believe in variance. Believe isn't even the right word since it's been proven to exist. I know it's real, however...

Without a BR that can handle the variance, particular those occasional long stretches where every time you have great odds of winning only boom! suckage, I'm sorry but, at that point variance might as well be luck. Variance isn't predictable. It's not like a major storm where you get warning weeks in advance and provided you can afford to get the hell out, ya hurry up and get the hell out. No it's more like an earthquake you know it's inevitable. You just don't know when it's coming or how.(Okay so every hand has variance, but you know I'm meaning the bad kind, where things work out all wrong). Also like an earthquake, there can be aftershocks. Some earthquakes hit and that's it just the one little tremmor. Others hit and you still feel the ground shaking at intervals for quite awhile afterwards. It was like that with Loma Prieta.

Until I have at least a few hundred bucks to play with, I need good luck. A few hundred bucks is enough to play for the long haul at microstakes, and will cover a losing streak or two. Good luck lets you run $5 up to $500. Skill seems to let you do it faster because you can fully captalize on those winning hands, and get out of the losing ones with a minimum of loss.

I'm just saying, while variance affects everyone, good or bad, it's not something you can really work with until you have enough loot to cover it.

In a recent t.v. commericial for Full Tilt...it shows in the backdrop different pro's at the table,Jesus,Lederer,and a few others that are affiliated with FT...While showing their faces the narrator asks a question.."If poker is all about luck,why do you keep seeing the same faces at the final tables?"...Then the camera pans around the table once again,showing the faces of the pro players.... the question is obviously rhetorical,the answer being,poker is NOT all about luck,poker is about skill.... At the very least at those upper levels,those players,the Negraneaus,the Chans,the Hellmuths,the Iveys,etc etc...did NOT get where they are today because they got lucky...
You can have the worst hand at the table and still take down that pot...that takes skill....Ever watch Gus Hansen?...lol

Mental exercise.

You have to admit that skill has an edge over luck. Even if that advantage is only 1%, so that for any giving session the skill will hold a 50.5/49.5 % edge.

This would suggest that after 200 sessions, skill will hold a 100% advantage over luck. This part is possibly provable, but still luck will hang in there and cause irksome nuisances enough so that poker, like the stock market, can not provide a sure thing.

But poker is more about making the right decisions in a risk environment.

long term skill is maybe overestimated, but the general idea is right

I'm not going to bother putting a % on it, but, I feel that the more skill you have the more luck you can create for yourself and the better off you are when someone gets lucky against you.

luck in the short term skill long term ill take long term over a few big wins anyday

I've been in turneys where I'd go thirty hands without even getting a face card--- So luck has it if cheat doesn't have it first. If you don't get the cards to play--you can't even play. Luck is the major factor. Any idiot can calculate odds once they have the cards. It's getting the cards- it's getting the flop- it's catching the river. Luck luck luck. When it's all said and done--I think 80%+ to the luck factor about says it all.

100% Skill.
100% Luck.

It really matters what we are measuring here. Otherwise it is a meaningless question!

We are just playing a head game to try to arbitrarily measure our own (lack of) skill. These sorts of head games are good practice for all the other ones that help us justify losses and wins. Those head games are BAAAAAAD for our wallets.

How about these?

What keeps the river card from not pairing the board?
100% Luck.

What makes you capable of deciding if this is the time to bet against that rivercard pairing?
100% Skill.

Or is it this one?

100% Skill -- when I am winning.
100% Luck -- when I am losing.



love,
cAPS

You're supposed to play both of your cards.

When I wrote this, by "long term" I was thinking over the course of a year. I agree with Zach, that over time luck gets closer to 0.

The more you play, the more your skill advantage has a chance to present itself.

Let's say you had a slightly bent coin that, because of the distortion, caused it to land on heads 51% of the time and tales 49% of the time. When it landed on heads you get $1. When it lands on tales, you pay $1.
If you flip that coin 50 times today, luck is a big influence on whether or not you make any $ today. Winning or losing $4 is very possible. IE, luck is a big factor.

Now, if you flip that bent coin 50 times a day for one year, that's 18,250 flips. You will most likely have a $182 profit at the end of the year. It is very unlikely that you will lose money.

If you flip the coin 50 times per day for 20 years, your advantage has a chance to work 365,000 times. You will most likely have around $3,650 in profit. The chances of being a loser over that period are incredibly low.

The more flips you make, the closer to 0 your chance of being a loser become and the more likely you are to have the bankroll that reflects your skill advantage.

I believe that a good player has better than a 1% advantage over the average player. A good playing will likely play more than 100 hands per day, and will come a heck of a lot more than 100 decisions.

This is like the age old question what came first the chicken or the egg..,.
i have always said that poker is 85% luck 15% skill, because
1) Position of play
2) Cards dealt
3) People on the table
4) cards that hit the table
Yes we all know what cards are good, and what cards are our favourite hands but NO one knows what cards will be dealt to each as hole cards and NO one knows what cards will hit the table.
It will always be more luck than skill, but you do need skill to play.
But without the poker gods, lady luck and the felt on your side, your skill means nothing...
So its MORE luck than skill, but without skill why are u sitting at the table?

i think it's fifty-fifty
you have to get the cards but you have to play smart too.
without any strategy you dont win

sure you need some skill to know what are u doing but i think that the most important in poker is luck! i am lucky when i hit bluffers!lololololol

Guys, skill isn't crazy glued to getting good cards! Someone was mentioning an ad that asks if it's a coincidence that there are so many familiar faces at final tables. If those familiar faces relied solely on getting good to great cards, they wouldn't make it to the final table. Skill isn't just knowing what to do when you've got the nuts, it's knowing what to do when you don't. Knowing when to fold without a winning hand, but conversely, knowing when you can win with a losing hand, and doing so.

Arguably, the pros, and not just the big name ones, have honed their skills to a higher level than the average player. Add natural talent and you've got consistent winners.

Look at Phil Ivey. His bluffs are beautiful. I love watching him push a player who's in the same stratosphere as his off of the better hand. Sometimes he'll do it, and it works, and I can't figure out how it works. The board doesn't show any obvious hands that will beat his opponent's, but he takes the pot anyway, and it's a sizable pot. He's thinking four moves ahead and several hands ahead at the same time. The guy's a genius. Oh and I guess it doesn't hurt that he's capitalizing on his image. Good for him, but that's only one example of skill, I mean sometimes the skill's in the fold, and there are oh so many other examples, and I'll stop now because I'm rambling like an old man with Tourette's and Alzheimer's.