Poker pro's and pot odds

#1 31st August 2010, 10:14 AM

Hey this is a really stupid question, but someone asked me today and I didn't really know. Is there any really good poker pros who don't use pot odds?

#2 31st August 2010, 10:34 AM

I doubt that very much..and even if i did i'm quite sure they woulden't say didnt!

#3 31st August 2010, 1:02 PM

I'm going to guess no.

There will be plenty that don't do the exact calculations at the table, especially live players where it's not always quick or easy to get the exact size of the pot or your opponent's stack. But they'll at least be doing estimates.

#4 31st August 2010, 3:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OzExorcist

I'm going to guess no.

There will be plenty that don't do the exact calculations at the table, especially live players where it's not always quick or easy to get the exact size of the pot or your opponent's stack. But they'll at least be doing estimates.

Ditto. Im guessing the good players play alot of live games so there used to the constant adding up of pot odds/outs etc etc.
There more u play the more u get the hang of it.

#5 31st August 2010, 4:17 PM

well there are times whereby you just know your opponent is bluffing and your should call with a marginal hand

#6 31st August 2010, 4:49 PM

i think Isildur1 doesn't calculate them, but than again he is not that much of a pro.

#7 31st August 2010, 6:09 PM

I've read Mike Matusow say "Don't read Sklansky". I took that to mean that he doesn't agree with basing your actions mostly or entirely on odds, etc. But I'm not sure if Mike ignores odds completely. I mean, even the biggest donkeys know not to chase a gutshot for your whole stack. (but many of them do it anyway, against what they know)

#8 31st August 2010, 6:20 PM

I would expect that today's emphasis on pot odds, as a purely mathematical concept, mostly came about from online play. A very few of the live eggheads like Sklanksy would have probably been running the precise calculations in their heads.

However I am confident that even the old-timers who only play live use the same concept of pot odds, just on a more instinctual level. They certainly do understand the concept of being priced in, when there is too much money in the pot to fold. They can look at the size of the pot and have a very good idea of whether a call is profitable or not.

So yes, I'd say that even the old live pros, including Matusow, are using the concept of pot odds even if they don't recognize it as such. But live players also have a lot of other feedback that contributes to their reads and instincts, making the more precise mathematical concept a bigger necessity in online games where gut reads and instincts play a smaller role.

#9 31st August 2010, 8:40 PM

Some go against pot odds but only because some have incredible reads. This is where the live pros have an advantage over the online players.

#10 31st August 2010, 9:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmorris68

... instinctual ...

Instinctive* :P

#11 31st August 2010, 10:04 PM

#12 31st August 2010, 10:43 PM

#13 1st September 2010, 12:41 AM

David Apostolico, in his book Lessons from the Pro Poker Tour, says that "playing pot odds is not an absolute in tournament play".

Unlike cash games where "if you consistently make or call bets when you are getting favorable odds, you will make money over all," he says that "tournament play is different. Once you are out of chips, you are done."

He goes on to give an example: "you are a 4-1 underdog but are getting paid 5-1. If calling that bet and losing means elimination, then in most circumstances you should not call." The only exception he cites is when you are so short stacked that you wouldn't have enough chips to play with if you were to fold.

He concludes by saying that he "certainly [does] not advocate completely ignoring pot odds. Rather, pot odds should be considered along with every other factor in reaching a decision. The size of your chip stack, the amount of the blinds, and your ultimate goals are just some of the other factors to consider."

#14 1st September 2010, 1:12 AM

^^^ This is absolutely true, and I like the way he puts it.

I guess I assume that people realize tourney and cash poker can be entirely different games, strategy-wise, but the truth is most beginning players don't make the distinctions for awhile.

#15 1st September 2010, 2:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lektrikguy

Some go against pot odds but only because some have incredible reads. This is where the live pros have an advantage over the online players.

If you've got some incredible read whereby you know your opponent is bluffing then you're not ignoring or going against pot odds - you just know they're in your favour.

#16 1st September 2010, 3:03 AM

I watched Darwin Moon. Man he is good at knowing exactly how much he can bid and get payed off, and where he is in the hand. He is not a pro, but he did win more than 5M$ last year, and I am pretty sure that he doesnt calculate pot odds.

#17 1st September 2010, 3:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ukaliks

Ditto. Im guessing the good players play alot of live games so there used to the constant adding up of pot odds/outs etc etc.
There more u play the more u get the hang of it.

You're 'guessing'??? This is a REALLY simplistic & BASIC part of the game.

#18 1st September 2010, 3:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by only_bridge

I watched Darwin Moon. Man he is good at knowing exactly how much he can bid and get payed off, and where he is in the hand. He is not a pro, but he did win more than 5M$ last year, and I am pretty sure that he doesnt calculate pot odds.

Umm.. yah.. & it was quite obvious that his bet-sizing was TERRIBLE.. so bad in fact that in one 'televised' spot he folds getting better than 10to1 odds. (his bet-sizing was real bad in this year's 'televised portion' of the MnEv. too).

#19 1st September 2010, 3:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by only_bridge

I watched Darwin Moon. Man he is good at knowing exactly how much he can bid and get payed off, and where he is in the hand. He is not a pro, but he did win more than 5M$ last year, and I am pretty sure that he doesnt calculate pot odds.

This is a level, right?

#20 1st September 2010, 6:02 PM

I would say that all good successful pros survive on knowing the odds and play to them almost all of the time. The exception is of course when they bluff.

#21 2nd September 2010, 12:09 AM

Just came across this today in the Doyle's Room newsletter and immediately thought of this thread.

"Mike Caro's Lesson 44: Poker's mathematical myth

In poker, knowing exact odds doesn't matter much. And being able to calculate complex probabilities in the heat of poker combat won't add much to your profit.

Despite this, I'm obsessed with statistics, having calculated complex charts on poker. You don't need to do this time-consuming math to excel. My stats serve mostly to satisfy curiosity.

Sure, you need a good grasp of how often hands will occur and how likely they are to improve. But precision beyond that has only mild benefit. When it's your turn to act, you have only seconds to decide. If you concentrate too hard on getting odds exact, you'll be wasting time you could use to make more important decisions regarding tells and tendencies of opponents.

Yes, you need to know approximately how strong hands are, and you need to gauge your prospects reasonably. But the notion that you must make lightning-fast calculations under pressure is a poker myth.— MC"

#22 2nd September 2010, 2:25 AM

Any poker pro who doesn't used some kind of odd system must certainly be the luckiest poker player ever. Right, sound ridiculous if that person base it all on luck and gut feeling. lol

#23 5th September 2010, 5:33 PM

Going through some DTB videos today and QTip has a pretty nice series on poker math for people who aren't math-inclined. Going back to my post above about old timers who don't consciously use math at the table but are actually doing so on a subconscious level, this is what QTip says at the very beginning of video #1:

Some would say the math isn't important in poker. They like to call themselves "Feel Players." They just feel out the situation and make the decision they think is best. However, don't be fooled. The good players saying this are "feeling" the math in the game. The bad players saying this are just, well, bad players. There isn't a good poker player who doesn't understand the numbers we're going to go over in this series.

So he's basically echoing (or me echoing him, actually) what I posted above about "instinctual" math.

I'm fairly well read by now on the concepts behind most poker math but I'm going to go through this series anyway, because the math doesn't always come easy to me. It's a 10 episode series that claims to cover some advanced concepts in an easy to understand manner, so I'm sure I'll pick up some tricks or concepts that just aren't second nature to me yet. Here's the lesson index:

Lesson 1 - Getting Your Feet Wet
Lesson 2 - Betting on the Bedrock
Lesson 3 - Hit the Deck!
Lesson 4 - Pursuing the Percentage
Lesson 5 - Pot Odds
Lesson 6 - Implied Odds
Lesson 7 - Exploring the Unknown
Lesson 8 - Equity vs Range
Lesson 9 - Bluffing
Lesson 10 - Semi-Bluffing

If you don't have a DTB membership yet and would like to check this out, they offer a 7-day free trial. They also offer a number of rakeback offers on most major sites, with the added bonus of earning free DTB months that does NOT affect your MGR (i.e. is not deducted from your RB). Very similar to TFPT with Cardrunners on FullTilt.

(I know this sounds like I'm shilling for DTB but not so. I'm a new member there myself (well, newly paying member anyway, I've actually been signed up since January) and I'm really liking what I've seen so far)

#24 5th September 2010, 6:14 PM

I've been convinced for years that the main importance of poker books and articles is to get a player to a responsible understanding of the game. The basics and advanced concepts are so widely understood these days that it takes something else to excel. And that something else will not be math based to the 4th digit, or the 3rd, or the 2nd.

Most of us muck 72o most of the time, Why? Well, most us understand the cardinal ranking of cards, and have some probably very inadequate understanding of combo's and odds and 'feel' that the opportunity for 72o to improve is too remote to proceed.

Even most beginners who understand nothing can grasp that. There is math behind that but how many of us have spent any amount of time calculating the net effects of aggressively playing 72o. Truth probably is that aggressively playing 72o is the only way of playing 72o just because it is so easy to muck in the face of resistance. But that gets to be an advanced poker topic about reads, bluffs and domination, when maybe all it really is is insanity and juevos grande'.

#25 5th September 2010, 6:19 PM

@dmorris - QTip has also just released a book called "Poker Math that Matters" if you want to plug more of his material for him? How much is he paying you?

#26 5th September 2010, 6:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madtom1337

@dmorris - QTip has also just released a book called "Poker Math that Matters" if you want to plug more of his material for him? How much is he paying you?

Yeah I read his initial announcement, and looked into the book. I may get it just for the quizzes to confirm what I *think* I know, and to have an easy reference to look back at.

And he's not paying me anything... yet. We'll see after I've had a material impact on his sales and on DTB memberships though.

Much of the math behind poker I've figured out by now. Whether I always make the effort to apply it correctly is another question, but I least I'm familiar with most of the concepts. However I struggle with articulating it to others, and sometimes I do glaze over when getting deep into subjects like equity vs range, G-Bucks, etc. QTip has a very "Mr. Rogers" like quality in presenting information in a soft spoken, easy to understand fashion. Lesson 1 makes me feel like I'm watching a Sesame Street episode, lol, but I can imagine that's what many folks need to get over the hurdle of "poker math."

While probably 70% of this math series I have down cold, I'm looking for any tips that will make things easier, as I'm sure I'm probably doing some calculations the hard way (I tend to brute-force my way through some calculations, which takes too long to be practical). I'm hoping I'll get something out of the more advanced lessons in this series. And since I do have an obsession with books, I'll probably wind up with his too.

#27 6th September 2010, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dj11

I've been convinced for years that the main importance of poker books and articles is to get a player to a responsible understanding of the game. The basics and advanced concepts are so widely understood these days that it takes something else to excel. And that something else will not be math based to the 4th digit, or the 3rd, or the 2nd.

Most of us muck 72o most of the time, Why? Well, most us understand the cardinal ranking of cards, and have some probably very inadequate understanding of combo's and odds and 'feel' that the opportunity for 72o to improve is too remote to proceed.

Even most beginners who understand nothing can grasp that. There is math behind that but how many of us have spent any amount of time calculating the net effects of aggressively playing 72o. Truth probably is that aggressively playing 72o is the only way of playing 72o just because it is so easy to muck in the face of resistance. But that gets to be an advanced poker topic about reads, bluffs and domination, when maybe all it really is is insanity and juevos grande'.

I'd have to say that ALOT of players 'fail' miserably in the math dept. (ie. in late level MTT play, there are a ton of scenarios that one can run thru and you'll see many players making big mistakes.... math-based mistakes. I'm mostly referring to stack sizes/resteals, 3 & 4-betting, & what we'll need to call a resteal with (based on stack sizes). TONS of scenarios that one can run thru & play around with on Pokerstove & is far from being a 'given' for the majority of online MTT players (esp. in the lower limits).
{Winning Poker Tournaments - One Hand At A Time, Vol.2, gets into a fair bit of this discussion... as it's a huge leak in many players games}

#28 7th September 2010, 1:31 AM

When dealing with odds I would say, only go by live play.

You cannot take a pro player and ask odds for online poker, you would want to ask them odds on live poker, any pro that tells you odds for an online game is either on drugs or they are no pro at all, LOL or owns the poker site.

its very fun to talk to a real pro that does it for a living, I have had that chance, no big names that you see on tv, but a guy that does it for a living, sure as hell makes more money than I ever have, even the semi pros I have talk to all say the same thing, they dont play online poker " for big money that is"":, I cant blame them, my bro is semi pro and very good, I told him which is no BS I played 20 games of sngs and got beat 7 times by 4 of a kind when I went all in, hey I had a good hand too, but the funny part which is not so funny is he laughed, in 40 years he has hit 4 of kind 1 time in live play, he has hit a royal, but for a pro that grinds or is staked, they know dam well there bread and butter is, its in live games.

Here is some odds for yah.

full tilt: AA pre flop beat 21 times in a row. Live play 1 time.
KK: beat so many times online, I cant remember, live play not yet. I did play a live game 4 weeks ago and saw AA get beat by KK, very rare but it happens.

after my AA 21 times row happened, I said ok maybe my bad luck is over, nope went for another 11 AA cracked in a row.

Hell I lost 20 bucks last night on full tilt, full house against full house. he had K4 full I had K3 full. that bull shiiit just does not happen in live play and when it does it is a rare time.

I have always said that if brick and mortar casinos were to produced the bull shiiit action odds that online rooms do, you would see on the nightly news dealers or casino owners getting shot to death, at point blank range. Cause anyone that does does simple math would know something is dam wrong with this picture. If you really want to know the odd of online poker, I would go down and grab a cup of coffee, hit up all the old ladies at the bingo parlor and they can get you right on track, cause that were your odds would come in to play, hell you never know you might get lucky, cheers from madness.

#29 7th September 2010, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Madness_does

When dealing with odds I would say, only go by live play.

You cannot take a pro player and ask odds for online poker, you would want to ask them odds on live poker, any pro that tells you odds for an online game is either on drugs or they are no pro at all, LOL or owns the poker site.

its very fun to talk to a real pro that does it for a living, I have had that chance, no big names that you see on tv, but a guy that does it for a living, sure as hell makes more money than I ever have, even the semi pros I have talk to all say the same thing, they dont play online poker " for big money that is"":, I cant blame them, my bro is semi pro and very good, I told him which is no BS I played 20 games of sngs and got beat 7 times by 4 of a kind when I went all in, hey I had a good hand too, but the funny part which is not so funny is he laughed, in 40 years he has hit 4 of kind 1 time in live play, he has hit a royal, but for a pro that grinds or is staked, they know dam well there bread and butter is, its in live games.

Here is some odds for yah.

full tilt: AA pre flop beat 21 times in a row. Live play 1 time.
KK: beat so many times online, I cant remember, live play not yet. I did play a live game 4 weeks ago and saw AA get beat by KK, very rare but it happens.

after my AA 21 times row happened, I said ok maybe my bad luck is over, nope went for another 11 AA cracked in a row.

Hell I lost 20 bucks last night on full tilt, full house against full house. he had K4 full I had K3 full. that bull shiiit just does not happen in live play and when it does it is a rare time.

I have always said that if brick and mortar casinos were to produced the bull shiiit action odds that online rooms do, you would see on the nightly news dealers or casino owners getting shot to death, at point blank range. Cause anyone that does does simple math would know something is dam wrong with this picture. If you really want to know the odd of online poker, I would go down and grab a cup of coffee, hit up all the old ladies at the bingo parlor and they can get you right on track, cause that were your odds would come in to play, hell you never know you might get lucky, cheers from madness.

I'm entitled to my opinion right? (as you are your's) but this ^ is a HUGE derail in my opinion (and freak'n ridiculous).. << this is sayin' it nicely.
Please stick to posting this 'crap' in the 'rigtard thread' where it belongs.

#30 7th September 2010, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Madness_does

When dealing with odds I would say, only go by live play.

You cannot take a pro player and ask odds for online poker, you would want to ask them odds on live poker, any pro that tells you odds for an online game is either on drugs or they are no pro at all, LOL or owns the poker site.

its very fun to talk to a real pro that does it for a living, I have had that chance, no big names that you see on tv, but a guy that does it for a living, sure as hell makes more money than I ever have, even the semi pros I have talk to all say the same thing, they dont play online poker " for big money that is"":, I cant blame them, my bro is semi pro and very good, I told him which is no BS I played 20 games of sngs and got beat 7 times by 4 of a kind when I went all in, hey I had a good hand too, but the funny part which is not so funny is he laughed, in 40 years he has hit 4 of kind 1 time in live play, he has hit a royal, but for a pro that grinds or is staked, they know dam well there bread and butter is, its in live games.

Here is some odds for yah.

full tilt: AA pre flop beat 21 times in a row. Live play 1 time.
KK: beat so many times online, I cant remember, live play not yet. I did play a live game 4 weeks ago and saw AA get beat by KK, very rare but it happens.

after my AA 21 times row happened, I said ok maybe my bad luck is over, nope went for another 11 AA cracked in a row.

Hell I lost 20 bucks last night on full tilt, full house against full house. he had K4 full I had K3 full. that bull shiiit just does not happen in live play and when it does it is a rare time.

I have always said that if brick and mortar casinos were to produced the bull shiiit action odds that online rooms do, you would see on the nightly news dealers or casino owners getting shot to death, at point blank range. Cause anyone that does does simple math would know something is dam wrong with this picture. If you really want to know the odd of online poker, I would go down and grab a cup of coffee, hit up all the old ladies at the bingo parlor and they can get you right on track, cause that were your odds would come in to play, hell you never know you might get lucky, cheers from madness.

LOL thats all I can say. LOL on the floor giggling at the misunderstanding of odds. L out F L

#31 7th September 2010, 1:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Madness_does

When dealing with odds I would say, only go by live play.

You cannot take a pro player and ask odds for online poker, you would want to ask them odds on live poker, any pro that tells you odds for an online game is either on drugs or they are no pro at all, LOL or owns the poker site.

its very fun to talk to a real pro that does it for a living, I have had that chance, no big names that you see on tv, but a guy that does it for a living, sure as hell makes more money than I ever have, even the semi pros I have talk to all say the same thing, they dont play online poker " for big money that is"":, I cant blame them, my bro is semi pro and very good, I told him which is no BS I played 20 games of sngs and got beat 7 times by 4 of a kind when I went all in, hey I had a good hand too, but the funny part which is not so funny is he laughed, in 40 years he has hit 4 of kind 1 time in live play, he has hit a royal, but for a pro that grinds or is staked, they know dam well there bread and butter is, its in live games.

Here is some odds for yah.

full tilt: AA pre flop beat 21 times in a row. Live play 1 time.
KK: beat so many times online, I cant remember, live play not yet. I did play a live game 4 weeks ago and saw AA get beat by KK, very rare but it happens.

after my AA 21 times row happened, I said ok maybe my bad luck is over, nope went for another 11 AA cracked in a row.

Hell I lost 20 bucks last night on full tilt, full house against full house. he had K4 full I had K3 full. that bull shiiit just does not happen in live play and when it does it is a rare time.

I have always said that if brick and mortar casinos were to produced the bull shiiit action odds that online rooms do, you would see on the nightly news dealers or casino owners getting shot to death, at point blank range. Cause anyone that does does simple math would know something is dam wrong with this picture. If you really want to know the odd of online poker, I would go down and grab a cup of coffee, hit up all the old ladies at the bingo parlor and they can get you right on track, cause that were your odds would come in to play, hell you never know you might get lucky, cheers from madness.

Wow.

I must say that is quite unbelievable.

So you have had pocket aces 32times and you seriously lost 32times in a ROW? I find that truly hard to believe, i would love to see these hand histories. Then again, you aren't saying how many people was involved in the hand. If there are more than 1 or 2 then it's clear that you are playing the aces really really badly. Besides, if i had 32 pocket aces beat in a row, i really would think about quitting the game myself as this sort of luck is just so wow, how on earth can you ever win a pot if you lose with aces 32 times in a row?:P

ps: I'd of never played King 3 to start with..

#32 7th September 2010, 2:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Madness_does

...random nonsense...

Hard to believe this is from a poster with 286 posts since Feb 2007. I can only imagine what the previous 285 were like. Probably all in the rigtard thread.

Or is this a level? If so, wp sir... wp.

#33 8th September 2010, 1:52 AM

You guys are killing me here. Well other than the last few posts. Even I do better with pocket aces. Now I have more videos to watch and at least one more book to read!!!

All I've got to say is that I thought I had a clue about poker but daammmmnnn...I still have way more to learn!!

#34 8th September 2010, 2:26 AM

Everyone thinks they've got a clue about poker. That's the beauty of it.

Insta-edit: And that's what makes it so, so profitable once you do have a clue. It's hard getting those clues though

#35 23rd September 2010, 11:20 PM

Thanks for the shout out David and Tom

As others have said, it's very rare that I'm doing any intense math at the table. The most I ever do is figuring out how much I need for implied odds and figuring out the fold equity I need for a semi-bluff. Those spots only come up maybe once or twice in 100 hands on average. The rest in an ingrained intuition from untold hours working away from the table analyzing situations and hands.

My book Poker Math That Matters, some mentioned here shows shortcuts for at the table poker and then shows players how to analyzed different situations away from the table by analyzing their assumptions about a player's range and then finding the best play.

Understanding the math involved in analyzing a poker hand is the single most important factor in learning to play good poker. All the hand-reading in the world will do you no good if you don't know what to do with the information you gain.

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