Is poker just luck

I meant to attach this to my article ealier as a poll.

what no 50-50 I think you should go from pure skill 10,20,- 50-100 put them all in there

That's a misleading question. Over the short term there's a very high luck component but skill is a factor. Over the long term, I believe it's mostly a skill game.

beriac took the words right out of my mouth.

both madisou and the amgician asfondiari have been quoted saying: in a single session poker is 70% luck and 30% skill, but over time it is the reverse 70% skill and 30% luck.

As Beriac pointed out, it's kind of a faulty question. If you're asking which is more important over any period of time, you could argue for either. If an unskilled player is abnormally lucky over a period of 1000 hands, he might do as well or better than a professional with average luck over that same period.

Everyone has good luck and bad luck periods if they play long enough. Skill is the crucial edge that allows the pros to make final tables somewhat consistently (as consistently as you can expect, for a game that can be very luck-oriented in the short-term). Skill is the reason I suspect just about every regular member of this forum is a winning, profitable player.

It might be misleading, but its not "faulty"...

The question contains a fault. That's a definition of faulty. That or "being characterized by errors". There's an obvious fault in asking someone to place some kind of exact percentage on the luck component in poker, especially with no other specifics.

I don't really get the point of trying to pick on someone's choice of word anyway.

na. don't take it the wrong way. I wasn't picking on you for your wordage. Is poker luck? It's obvious none of us truly know if it is or isn't luck, neverless the percentages. I dont believe a question asking an opinion can be faulty. . .unless, of course, you look at it at some other angle....then yes...it is faulty. . . I just depends which way you look at it. IMO it's a simple question. No fault. No trickery...

I see what you mean. Maybe the word I chose was bad, but what I mean basically is that I think there's an inherent flaw in the question because over any period of time poker can be any % of luck, but that the luck is always going to even out over a long enough period. I don't know how you can actually put a % on the luck component, when it evens out for everyone.

To put a % on luck and a % on skill, in my mind, compares the two as far as how important they are in relation to one another in poker. I think attempting to do that is faulty (insert better word) because they're independent of each other. Over a huge enough sample of hands, the luck (odds) will even out, while skill is the edge.

Gotta disagree here. Poker is by definition a game of chance as it has random outcomes, so luck is clearly a factor. In the very short run, luck is clearly a very large factor. Deal me in for 1 hand against Phil Ivey and there is a statistically very significant chance that I win it. Whereas deal me in for 1,000,000 hands against Phil Ivey and there is likely nil chance that I end up ahead.

I think we can all agree that poker contains a huge element of luck in the very short term. And in the long term, I can tell you as something of a statistician that the success enjoyed by some of the pros -- both in tournaments and cash games -- is statistically significant and demonstrates that luck is not the only factor in the long run, maybe not even the major factor.

Thus I think we can say that luck matters in poker, and it matters a lot more over short periods than long periods.

hi all,

voted 40% however

would have liked 10-20% luck

best,

donvic

I agree with donvic. You should of had something like 10% or 20% in there. I voted for pure skill because there was nothing lower than 40%

Ok , maybe. And, in terms of live play.....then I was obviously wrong in saying you can say that there's no luck in it, but it's really just your opinion of what the percentages are based on how you play. . .

Online poker also has no randomness and computers generating "random numbers" is nonexistant, so that's where I beg to differ in terms of the "luck".

The lottery is luck - hence the name 'lottery' .
Poker is a game - games often need skill as well as luck.

Poker has elements of luck in, but also skill and sometimes the skill will completely dominate the situation and there are times when the river hits your hand and you win from a highly unlikely situation - thats luck.

If you play enough you will come across moments of both and there will be times when both will go against you.

IanT

I think luck is a big factor. You can't win a MTT all on skill. When your at the final table, luck is a bigger factor. However, you can't win a MTT all on luck either. The question here is how much luck do you need to get the win? I think the percentage is bigger than you think, not only on how the flop comes out but also on what cards you are dealt.

I'm honestly not sure what you're saying here exactly. If your point is that online poker has a different luck factor because it is not purely random, well, I agree that it is not purely random (no process known to humankind has been created that generates a truly random number), however I would counter that dealers are not exactly pure random number generators either.

Otherwise I'm not really sure what your point is...?

Computers run on code...that was implemented by a human being. Code that is computed from a mathematical formula or taken from a precalculated list. The sequence of events is not random because the same exact thing will happen every time, depending on the sequence before it.

I guess I was stating that luck isn't a factor....because the cards you receive are predetermined...but I guess you could consider your seating position, type of play, etc. . . "luck" , honestly...I don't know where I was going with that.....I guess you can consider ANYTHING luck. Then let's consider that nothing is luck...Everything is predetermined and completely out of your control. You might Think you make a "choice", but, in actuality your choices were predetermined by something...maybe something more mysterious than the "luck" you speak of...eh?

Of course poker is very much skill. It would be a shame to say poker is just luck. Why play poker instead of roullette then? I think poker is somewhere between 20% and 40% luck. Internet poker is more luck just beacause it is harder to get a read on an opponent.

Actually,

You can win a poker tournament on only luck. It ain't easy being that lucky. But, it is possible.

Now ask if you can win 2 in a row on luck. You would have to have an incredible amount of luck to accomplish that. Beyond 2 forget it. Luck only goes so far.

And as far as the arguement that we can't know whether poker is luck or not.

Ask David Sklanky. He will likely tell you that there is a certain element of luck in poker. We all know this. When you flop quad Ks two Ks in your hand and AKK on the board. Then the other player pulls off runner runner As to with his hand of AQ making him quad As what else could it be but luck.

However, he will tell you that over the long haul luck just isn't gonna be enough. Skill will win in the long run over luck. Period.

My favorite saying for poker "Luck comes and goes but knowledge is forever"