Is online poker rigged??? An investigation!

#**631** 12-05-2008, 12:40 PM

Ho Hum.......Its what it is.....2 mtts a day over that period. Why submit losing results to a points league. There were some excellent players in the league. I only won the points tally once....although I was in the top 5 90% of the time. Some players have gone on to finaltables at the wsop etc. Two fellow players were Pab (aka Pablo, Pirate Pab) Sexygee (aka Geeforce). They were far better than I.

Addition: Yes I'm sure a lot of players will have improved. I can still win the odd mtt. It's just not profitable overall.

#**632** 12-05-2008, 12:46 PM

so wait, ur playing 2 MTTs a day for 3 years and only have 117 cashes?
ITM% is quite low imo, whats that like 5%, never seen a winning player with it that low

#**633** 12-05-2008, 12:46 PM

You know, I'm not very good with MTTs. Still, if I made a list of all the MTTs I've ever played, but filtered it to only include the ones where I cashed and then used that list to show how good I was at poker and using that as an argument for why people should listen to me, then I'd probably expect to get ridiculed for it.

Because it's, y'know, dumb.

Now, besides the fact that you posted a list of money you've won (wanna see my cash games result filtered for only hands where I've won money? I'm up a few million) is something you still fail to grasp: No one cares if you're a winning or a losing player. Your arguments are what's at stake, not whether or not you claim to have won money before.

This is why I made the silly claim of having won $52 and how that made me worth listening to. You, ironically, didn't see the sarcasm and posted,

Quote:

Oh! and btw if you won $52.........well! ........I bow to your greater knowledge and skill. A player of your status must be right!!

So, eh... Heh?

And now to the core problem: You claim to sense that the sites are "obviously" rigged (us others are in denial despite it being so apparent, I gather), but this "obvious" fact amazingly enough doesn't translate into anything that's measurable. Doesn't that strike you as a bit odd?

That something, which you seem to think you have to be blind not to see, cannot be measured, proven, or in any other way detected. Yet you've detected it. How, pray tell? How do you detect these undetectable things?

#**634** 12-05-2008, 1:32 PM

I'm not going into the rigged or not rigged debate as there is no physical or cyber proof. What I would like to see a explanation of is, exactly how random is a random number generator? I give two examples of what I mean, same player ( me ) on a 10 seat table being dealt AA 4 hands in 5, and in a different game, the flop being KK9 the first 3 hands in an mtt. Now I appreciate the "rng" is dealing thousands of hands a minute but something doesn't seem quite right.

#**635** 12-05-2008, 1:47 PM

The only measure is your profitability....and everyone elses. But thats not possible because whether 99% lose money or not, 99.9999% will not tell the truth. And that is money in the bank for the sites. Denial is very very profitable.

#**636** 12-05-2008, 1:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pothole

I'm not going into the rigged or not rigged debate as there is no physical or cyber proof. What I would like to see a explanation of is, exactly how random is a random number generator? I give two examples of what I mean, same player ( me ) on a 10 seat table being dealt AA 4 hands in 5, and in a different game, the flop being KK9 the first 3 hands in an mtt. Now I appreciate the "rng" is dealing thousands of hands a minute but something doesn't seem quite right.

Random is random is random.

The problem with this thread - and any thread like it - is that the data being presented isn't random.

By that I mean that you don't see anyone posting in this thread that they just played five hands, and the cards they were dealt were A2o, KT, K7, 93 and 22. Why aren't they posting this? Because it's not interesting, and they didn't react to it. You, however, distinctly remember that one time you were dealt AA four times out of five, which is what you're posting about. Of course, for every player who's been dealt AA four hands in a row, there are hundreds (if not thousands) of players who haven't. But they won't post here.

Would you have posted in this thread if it hadn't been for the fact that you had noticed such a freak occurence?

...

... can you see how every other post of the same kind in this thread exists for the same reason?

#**637** 12-05-2008, 1:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ex-player

The only measure is your profitability....and everyone elses. But thats not possible because whether 99% lose money or not, 99.9999% will not tell the truth. And that is money in the bank for the sites. Denial is very very profitable.

Heard of PokerTracker?

#**638** 12-05-2008, 1:52 PM

Errr........Random is random is random.........I think not. The very fact that the cards are 'generated' means it's not random. If you read up on the subject you'll find that no rng in purely random.......it's an impossibility.

Poker Tracker.....got it!

#**639** 12-05-2008, 2:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ex-player

Errr........Random is random is random.........I think not. The very fact that the cards are 'generated' means it's not random. If you read up on the subject you'll find that no rng in purely random.......it's an impossibility.

Random is discrete. Asking "how random" something is, is much like asking "how much" something exists. There's no scale.

Quote:

Poker Tracker.....got it!

... as do most people who play online poker seriously. And one cool thing about it is that I can see exactly how much I've won or lost. And the other cool thing is that I can see how other people are doing. The third cool thing is that that means that this statement:

Quote:

The only measure is your profitability....and everyone elses. But thats not possible because whether 99% lose money or not, 99.9999% will not tell the truth. And that is money in the bank for the sites. Denial is very very profitable.

... is moot. Other people's profitability is not hard to gauge, and I'm not dependent on them being honest about it in order to find out.

... and 99% of poker players aren't losing money.

Now, tell me how you detect what you claim to be undetectable.

#**640** 12-05-2008, 2:13 PM

Random is discrete?????????????? It's either random or it isn't. Who asked how random it was.....not me!

How do you know 99% aren't losing money?

#**641** 12-05-2008, 2:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ex-player

Random is discrete?????????????? It's either random or it isn't. Who asked how random it was.....not me!

Random is discrete (!!!!!!!!!!!), yes. This is what I said. I'm sure, with just a tiny bit of work and virtually no investigative skills at all, you can figure out who it was that asked how random it was.

Quote:

How do you know 99% aren't losing money?

I'll answer that shortly after you answer my question. The one, y'know, about how you detect the undetectable.

#**642** 12-05-2008, 2:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by F Paulsson

I'll answer that shortly after you answer my question. The one, y'know, about how you detect the undetectable.

mystery resolved!

#**643** 12-05-2008, 2:31 PM

I knew Bruce Willis had something to do with this.

#**644** 12-05-2008, 2:33 PM

He always does.

We should send him on a suicide mission in a rocket to blow up costa rica imo.

#**645** 12-05-2008, 2:45 PM

I think I've stated on a number of occassions that it's not detectable ( point me to it if I have stated otherwise). The rng will stand up to scrutiny.....I also said that. It's the situations presented not the apparent randomness of the deal that is questionable.

Ok your answer please.

#**646** 12-05-2008, 3:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ex-player

I think I've stated on a number of occassions that it's not detectable ( point me to it if I have stated otherwise). The rng will stand up to scrutiny.....I also said that. It's the situations presented not the apparent randomness of the deal that is questionable.

Ok your answer please.

You haven't answered. You claim that it - online poker being rigged - is undetectable. And my question is how you managed to detect it. Is it your your finely tuned 6th sense (see image above) of "situations presented?" The situations presented that can escape every statistical survey and data collection in the world except for your keen eye?

#**647** 12-05-2008, 3:44 PM

What do you mean the sites favor everyone?

Sometimes I wonder if there's some rating system or something that the poker sites use to determine what cards a player will receive on the draw. I keep running into people who bet ridiculously with nothing against my nuts and then suck out in the end. The same people seem to do this over and over... On Full Tilt Poker I have them rated so that I can identify them.

Sometimes I wonder if they are bots. Are they real people who have unusual luck? Is it just my imagination?

Quote:

Originally Posted by pro_36

Hello there everyone before i start id like to point out a few things.....

I am a professional Poker player, and yes people may know who i am so i would like to remain nameless. I have been playing professionaly part time for 15 years and i have earned over $600.000 in my playing career including 3 WSOP main event cashes.
I have played against many famous pros most of which are sponsored by poker sites. So i hope my integrity matters on this subject.

I have read alot about online poker being "rigged". Even so much as players at a live table complaining about the very subject. So...i brought it upon myself to experiment.
I choose 3 sites BODOG.....FULLTILT....AND....POKERSTARS. The three very sites i hear the most complaining about.

My experiment was to play 10 sit and gos at $50 on each site. Keeping record of my progress (I choose $100 so people would play properly) and see for myself what all the fuss is about.

The results.....

BODOG.....2nd...1st...3rd....5th.....2nd.....8th.. ..9th.....6th....8th....10th

At first i was doing very well at the site. Until game 4 i was knocked out by a 2% on the river. (I had the nut flush on the turn, they hit the straight flush on the river.) Same happened on game 6, they hit runner runner higher fullhouse. Then it went from bad to worse. I was beaten by 8% or less either on runner runner or just the river card. Every single allin i was ahead. By over 90%. The 10th game was a joke. I flopped a set of Kings...I bet the flop....was called....went allin on the turn....was called....they had pocket 5s, hitting a set of 5s on the flop.....River card was a 5 making them quads and me kings full.
Now most people would complain about the other players making stupid decisions but there wasnt really anything out of place. All players that called had strong hands but the site just seemed to favour them miracle cards.
Dont get me wrong i can take a bad beat, hell....iv had hundreds over the years....but 6 (5 in a row) i think i would have given up poker a very long time ago if that was happening in live play.

FULLTILT....1st...1st...9th...6th...10th....8th... .8th....4th....4th....4th

Now instead of telling you the bad beats i have calculated their % against mine when my/their allin was called....game 3 = 15%...game 4 = 10%...game 5 = 20%....game 6 = 4%....game 7 = 12%...game 8 = 4%...game 9 = 2%...game 10 = 16%...

The bad beats varied from runner runner flushes to runner runner quads.

I must admit the 1st two games i played very well and seemed very normal play. My calculations were correct at important times and i was rewarded. From then on the site seemed to take a drastic turn for the worse. I will say "the site" because if it is my luck theres seriously nothing down for me! Yes i will admit my calculations werent always up to scratch but i made dam sure i was ahead and ahead by alot before the money went in.

POKERSTARS...1st...2nd...9th...8th...7th...10th... 10th...9th...

As you will see i only played 8 games. The reason...never before in my life have i ever seen such a bizzarre shuffle. I simply could not bare to play anymore. I even left it two days and still couldnt face it. I had lost all interest to be honest because i am convinced the outcome of the games were totally out of my hands. No matter how much calculating i did or how far ahead i was the site just dealt miracle cards and nothing else. Game 3 i flopped quads and lost to runner runner higher quads. Game 7 i flopped quads again and lost to runner runner royal flush. The two worst beats iv seen in over 15 years of play within a few hours of each other along with other horrific bad beats in between.

Conclusion....The reason i did this is to mainly see what online poker is for myself and to voice my opinion. After much thought about this subject and based on my results i would say yes it is "rigged". But i dont think to the way you might think, my opinion is the sites try to favour everyone. If it didnt poker pros like myself who make correct moves and calculations would win alot more than we lose. Which means the "fish" would swim elsewhere and the site would lose money. Many players are probably reading this saying "hey i always make money online" if you do good on you....but ur way of playing must be so random the site hasnt picked up on you being a good solid player which i like to consider myself as being.
This seems the best conclusion i could come up with. Many may not agree which is fine with me. I have made cashes in the WSOP WPT and AUSSIE MILLIONS so i think i can rely on my calculations and decision making.....1 decision is for sure, i (and my wallet) will never go near another online poker site. Thats for sure.

Thank you for reading

#**648** 12-05-2008, 4:22 PM

Personally i think that pro_36 is probably Brian Micon. Seriously what other pro playing for 15 yrs has only made $600,000 in live tournies and cash games.

#**649** 12-05-2008, 5:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iknowthetruth

(content edited for brevity)

Full Tilt. A-10 I call a raise ...looking to strike.

A-2 I call a postion play ...

I call with A-5 hearts, ...

2 things you can do:

Stop playing poker. (Bonus: with the money you save, you can probably afford a keyboard that has an enter key.)

Stop calling raises with weak hands, or stop being shocked when they don't work out for you all the time.

#**650** 12-05-2008, 6:37 PM

Is this the right room for an argument?
I've told you once!
No, you didn't!
Yes, I did!
Oh, this is futile.
No, it isn't!

#**651** 12-05-2008, 6:39 PM

I need something to do during office hours, don't I?

It's a little like scratching an itch. I know I'm not supposed to, but it just feels so good.

#**652** 12-05-2008, 6:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zug

zachvac if youve got 200k why not go to vegas.

oh yeah you were just makin it up to feel better about your losses

LOL, the same place I said I'd played 200k HANDS at Stars, I said I had built up $100 to $2100, making it 1 cent per hand. I'm not bragging about how good I am, I'm telling you I have a significant sample we can analyze and I said some probably have more. I also said I'd run any query people wanted to see if it did/didn't fall within expected variation for this sample size (which would be small because of the big sample size). Surprisingly I have yet to have someone put into words exactly which percentage the RNG is off on, despite having people who have insider "proof" that it was indeed rigged.

And in terms of random, of course there's no such thing ever as truly random, but as long as the variables used are not predictable by the users, it's fine. While technically just using a psuedo-random generator, machine entropy, and user activity aren't technically random, it's random from he pov of anyone who can't figure these things out, which is ... EVERYONE. Of course real shuffles aren't random either, they're subject to how many times they shuffled, how many cards went in between each other one, etc. But it's unpredictable, so it doesn't matter that it's physics providing the randomness, while in online it's machine entropy and user input (on top of the mathematical pseudo-randomness that most programming is content to use, such as your solitaire card games).

#**653** 12-05-2008, 6:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by F Paulsson

I need something to do during office hours, don't I?

It's a little like scratching an itch. I know I'm not supposed to, but it just feels so good.

Hahaha, yes I know where you're coming from, the holes in their logic are big enough to drive a bus through.

#**654** 12-05-2008, 6:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ex-player

Addition: Yes I'm sure a lot of players will have improved. I can still win the odd mtt. It's just not profitable overall.

hmm, perhaps because while you're complaining about online poker, they've been getting better, and the players have passed you by? But of course why actually consider that you're not an amazing poker player you think you are when making excuses is oh so much easier and more comforting to your ego?

#**655** 12-05-2008, 6:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoWuckingFurries

Hahaha, yes I know where you're coming from, the holes in their logic are big enough to drive a bus through.

This implies there is any logic at all to begin with. You give them too much credit.

#**656** 12-05-2008, 7:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zachvac

This implies there is any logic at all to begin with. You give them too much credit.

But he's a winning player in live poker!

#**657** 12-05-2008, 7:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by F Paulsson

But he's a winning player in live poker!

I wonder if he keeps records of just the live donkaments that he cashes in too.

#**658** 12-05-2008, 7:10 PM

Actually I won a poker tournament at the Gala casino in Northampton, and if I can win a live poker tournament then clearly ANYBODY can win a live poker tournament! I won £210 in that, whereas my biggest online win to date has been US $25, and I have played the vast majority of my poker online. Which implies (to me, at least) that online poker is generally far more challenging than live poker.

#**659** 12-05-2008, 7:13 PM

Was it your first time there? I'm testing my "live poker is rigged in favour of new players to keep them coming back" hypothesis and I think we only need one trial to conclusively confirm or deny my belief.

#**660** 12-05-2008, 7:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoWuckingFurries

Actually I won a poker tournament at the Gala casino in Northampton, and if I can win a live poker tournament then clearly ANYBODY can win a live poker tournament! I won £210 in that, whereas my biggest online win to date has been US $25, and I have played the vast majority of my poker online. Which implies (to me, at least) that online poker is generally far more challenging than live poker.

The overwhelming concensus is that live is a joke compared to online. Saying that you're a winning live player is a little bit like saying you can beat infants at wrestling and expect people to be impressed.

#**661** 12-05-2008, 7:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dorkus Malorkus

Was it your first time there? I'm testing my "live poker is rigged in favour of new players to keep them coming back" hypothesis and I think we only need one trial to conclusively confirm or deny my belief.

LMAO. Well played

#**662** 12-05-2008, 8:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dorkus Malorkus

Was it your first time there? I'm testing my "live poker is rigged in favour of new players to keep them coming back" hypothesis and I think we only need one trial to conclusively confirm or deny my belief.

It was my fourth or fifth time of playing there, and the hands are actually dealt by casino staff, so it's quite clearly company policy that after a few times of trying they have to alllow you to win the tournament. It would be too obvious if they let you win the first time!

#**663** 12-05-2008, 8:15 PM

Ok this has degenerated into the children making silly jokes.

PRO came onto the site giving his view and was ridiculed for his trouble. I posted what I believe and get ridiculed. Ridiculed by guys who in their profiles profess to 'highest winnings' of $200 - $1,000. I don't doubt any of your claims - why should I? I gave my background only as an indication of my ability, when that was questioned I posted some (not all) of my mtt results in an effort to prove my claims. That too was ridiculed. As for my ego........who boosts their ego by posting that they can no longer play profitable poker online? Most of you guys appear to play very low stake poker yet are extremely opinionated. When you win some reasonable tournaments you might have the experience and ability to talk with some credibility.......trouble is, going by this experience, when you get to that stage there will be lots of other non-achievers on here to disbelieve, ridicule and generally take the p*ss because winning regularly and profitably is beyond their wildest dreams. Good luck suckers, one day you might just wake up. That's my last post on this subject.

Enjoy your poker.


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