Online poker IS fair (long)

Huh?

Sorry read the first word, then realized it was an essay.

crash,
You are computing the odds of AA holding up against an entire table all the way down to the river. As you mention yourself, there is a wide variety of talent and people's thought process that goes into a decision of whether to call, fold, or raise. It's not very likely that 5-6 of those people will be in the hand vs. AA. And people who allow that to occur are the same people usually playing the 53o later on.

The real bottom line here is that you have to do a myriad of things at the table in order to be successful. And even when you do those, there are no guarantees that you will win. The key is to do it over and over again, and long term you can be in that top 5%.

Stated perfectly my friend. It is a game that needs to be played long term and with propper bankroll control to eliminate the varience factor.

I was merely making a point that at the micro level games you are more apt to run into that guy that is willing to play the 47 or the 53 to the river.

6 of these players may not be in the hand with you. But at these low wreckless stakes where even the most skillful play cant keep some of these players at bay youre more apt to take a beat like this. Even if you give your opponent 1:1 on their money and their draw requires 20:1 odds if they make the call there is nothing you can do. And when you cant stop a player from seeing cards you just dont know which of them is going to hit. The guy that's gonna hit just might be the guy that calls you. Sometimes there are a couple guys that will hit but maybe only one of them calls you. The point is that once someone decides they want to see all the cards anything can happen. Unless they are drawing dead they will ALWAYS have a chance, and you could be the one stuck in the pot when it happens.

Thats not rigged or set up. Thats just poker.

very interesting piece of writing dude.

you are right on and unfortunatly thats how most of these donks play they don't figure out anything just play and get lucky

Well, that was perhaps not the most concise post that I've ever read, and with a bit of though I guess a few holes could be picked in it. However, I have to say that it was one of the best thought out that I've read on the subject, and deserves to silence the "rigged" theorists".

Of course, it will not silence them (and who am I to say they should be silenced) because they have this idea entrenched in their mind and no amount of logical argument could ever change it.

Nice post.

Boltneck

The casinos near where I live have already been flooded I would say the average play live is about on par if not worse then the 10max tables on full tilt. That is half the reason I dont understand all these "Online Poker" is rigged threads I have to assume most of these players dont often if ever play b&m.

there is no real way to tell what is gonna hit and what is not..,so if u you have a decent hand it is not a good idea to limp in or check on a blind. this is how u let people suckout on u... believe me i have had it happen one to many times! lol

Is there anyway this can actually get a sticky! I have once done this myself though, I take AA, KK, QQ, JJ then deal out a hand, you certainly finds ome very interesting things out.

I'm sorry but I find the comparison of the "fun game" with the actual game of poker to be pretty ludicrous. Not sure how or why you are trying to justify how that disparity disproves site rigging.

Poker is not a game of 9 hands all in pre flop and down to showdown.

So, if you want to seriously replicate using real cards here's the "fun game" you need to perform.

Deal the 9 hands, and now pick the top 3 hands that you would personally like to play and see to the showdown. Discard all the other 6 hands.
Now deal the community cards and see which hand of those 3 you chose actually wins the most often. For example did your high pair AA, KK, QQ consistently beat the A5s flush draws? Did your A5s flush draws beat Axo more often etc etc.

I have no doubts you will see true statistical results coming out over a significant number of hands. What you won't see are the miracle rivers or runner, runners, or Nut Flush beaten by Full House. Okay you might just see one or two but thats it. They will be rare occurances. I would also bet that if you dealt yourself 200 hands you wouldn't see one 4 of a kind or 1 royal flush amongst them.

In online poker however, the complete opposite is true. You'll see hundreds of stupid magic rivers, and runner, runner miracles and Nut Flushes beaten by Full Houses WHEN THERE ARE ONLY 2 or 3 PEOPLE IN THE HAND. You will also see loads of 4 of a kinds appearing.

There is no question that the hands are creatively dealt in online poker as with all online games.

I have never ever played online Bingo nor played at any bricks and mortar Bingo venue (like Gala etc). But I know that if I were to play online Bingo I would get a few wins here and there, just enough to keep me excited and hooked into depositing more and more money. Overall I would lose. It's the same overall strategy just a different presentation. Online poker is just an online Slot Machine. You put your money in, pull the handle and hope for the best. You'll get some wins and some losses but overall you have to keep putting more money in to keep playing.

In my lifetime of poker I should only see certain hands and situations extremely rarely. Actually I only started online poker in Sept this year but already I've seen a complete community board come out a Royal Flush and numberous 4 of a kinds, and numerous hands where 3-4 people have really strong hole cards and the flop-turn delivers them ALL a little something.
In total I've played about 10,000-15,000 hands.
What are the chances of dealing 5 cards from a deck of cards after the 9 pairs of hole cards, and coming up with a royal flush !!!!

To get First Ace is 4 chances in 52 = 1 in 13 (in stats terms the hidden hole cards don't factor hence 1 in 52 not 1 in 34)
the K is then 1 chance in 51
Q is 1 in 50
J is 1 in 49
10 is 1 in 48
(ignoring burn cards)

so multiply all those odds together and you get 1 in 6364800

Yep that's right I should see this happen once in every 6.3 million hands !!

Gee I only started in Sept and I've only played 10-15K hands. WOW I must be Sooooo lucky, in fact surely I'll win the lottery this week then !! Or maybe we can simply conclude that the whole concept of online poker is one big rigged scam !


But wait I hear you cry. The poker site probably did deal out a few million hands that week. So someone is going to see a Royal Flush on the board and why shouldn't that be you ?

I guess the answer is that I'm not the only person crying foul play, there are hundreds if not thousands of people seeing similar astronomically unlikley events occuring ALL THE TIME. Equally, the straight odds don't usually refect the reality of how an event comes out. So although a roulette wheel has 36/37 numbers on it and statistics say that we should
see number 7 come out ayt least once every 37 spins, in reality we might sit through 200 spins before it actually did come out because random events are like that. So my 1 in 6.3 million community board flush is probably going to be more like 1 in 60 million.

Now if you want a really FUN GAME then deal yourself 9 sets of hole cards and the community board and see if you can land a royal flush on the board itself. I suspect you will be quite old and grey before you manage it and that you will instinctively no it's a total waste of time trying to do it.

You need ALL THE HAND HISTORIES from a poker site to show that these astronomical events are happening all the time but you'll never get access to them. However, instinctively most people can tell that many non-random events are occurring very frequently. Other people are Fox Mulders and just "Want to Believe" because they can't bear to be in a world where real online poker doesn't exist. They want to play, they want to make money. In many ways I share those sentiments. I want a fair gamble. I'd love to have a day at the racecourse and know that I have a fair horse bet. Reality is different though. Stable owners are laying bets against their own horses (illegally of course). They are betting themselves that their own horses will not win. Then they are in collusion with their jockeys to make sure they don't win. Gambling is crooked - period. Online poker does not exist. All that exists is a game of controlled chance presented as a poker game. A blind man on a wooden horse can see the truth of that ! :-)

What's with people bumping year-old threads?