The odds of flopping a St8 flush

A couple of days ago at FT I flopped a 9 high st8 flush holding 96.
The odds against this must be astronomical. I don't know how to figure it.
I read for 2 connected cards the odds against as follows:
Flopping a flush is 118:1
Flopping a st8 is 76:1
Is it simply a matter of multiplying these two?
In which case it would be 8968:1
But a 2 gapper must be even higher.

PS. I got all-in action on the hand.

I dont know the odds ...Sorry ... But wanted to tell you a story about a royal flush .. and ask the odds on this one....I once hit a royal flush in 5 card draw at royal poker .. i was amazed Hit it with my first 5 cards no draw even what would you say the odds are of that happening again..or just happening would be ... I dont play it any more .. But that was like an unbelievable hand with no draws ... still amazes me ...and i still dont know the odds ...

Hi XBecca,

Amazing is what they are. I been looking around the internet and found this for dealt hands:
Royal Flush 0.0002% 1 in 649,740.00

Straight Flush 0.0012% 1 in 72,193.33

I have one ever better which was in a poker magazine.

What are the odds of there being a royal flush on the board AND it coming out in ascending 10 - A order...

Now that has to be a miracle of all miracles...

Tell me. What are the odds of this happening?

KAQJ10h

assuming its hearts specifically, and the board jolub put a pic of, and the exact same order, it should be

1/52 * 1/52 * 1/52 * 1/52 * 1/52

the same odds any specific board has of coming out, assuming you haven't looked at your hand


odds of a royal straight flush board, any order, any suit

20/52 * 4/52 * 3/52 * 2/52 * 1/52 = smaaallll number

I believe

"What are the odds of there being a royal flush on the board AND it coming out in ascending 10 - A order.."

assuming suit doesn't matter

4/52 * 1/52 * 1/52 * 1/52 * 1/52 =

I believe

if suit does matter

1/52 * 1/52 * 1/52 * 1/52 * 1/52 =

I believe

Which comes to what exactly.

I am more intrigued as to what the fooking hell one of the players is doing still in the pot with 6 8 spades after the river...

ya, i messed up, obviously its not x/52 every time, haha, you subtract as cards are removed, brain fart on my part

Wow, several different posts all mixing in a lot of numbers. Maybe a short summary:

For the sake of this post, the question is really what are the odds of the board showing any royal flush. There are two answers to this depending on whether you are playing at the table and are given two cards or if you are just watching the table and don't have two cards. Obviously if you're in the hand and have two cards the numbers, then from your perspective the odds of it happening are slightly better because the pool of cards to choose from is two cards smaller.

So, also assuming that suit and order of arrival doesn't matter we have:
Just observing the table (with no cards exposed):
20/52*4/51*3/50*2/49*1/48 = 480/311,875,200 = 649,740 to 1

Player at the table holding two cards where none are 10-A:
20/50*4/49*3/48*2/47*1/46 = 480/254,251,200 = 529,690 to 1

So really, by sitting at the table and holding two cards that won't fit any royal flush make the odds of the board showing a royal flush about 18.5% better than just observing the table. These are the best chances. Add in any other criteria like order the cards come in or what suit and the odd get worse exponentially.

Heh, maybe this summary wasn't so short.

Now can someone possibly calculate the odds of hitting two royal flushes in a fortnight, which is whats happened to me.

I hit one on Absolute poker and then lo and behold ten days later on Red Star poker I hit one again.

I've gone years without getting one, and then I get two close together.

Just occurred to me that I didn't really summarize and answer to the OP of the thread, I actually wound up summarizing for post # 5. Oops.

For the OP's scenario, he needs three specific cards to make his hand. The 8, 7, and 5 of his suit.

So, it would be:
3/50*2/49*1/48 = 6/117,600 = 19,600 to 1

handly little chart

Attached Images

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