A "noodlescratcher" question

If you were a bookmaker pricing up odds on a 100 person freeroll, which had 99 amatuers (e.g from this site) and Phil Ivey, what odds would you offer for Phil? Obviously he's the best player, but how many of the freerolls do you think he would win if he played 100?

I think it would boil down to the luck element as just by their nature freerolls tend to eliminate the skill element. Now we do have some good players at this site and if they were in the event versus the normal contingent of freeroll whores, it would certainly change things. As an answer I'd say around 25%...

I'd say lower than that - 10%? We're never going to find out the real answer though! I read Devilfish say that if players don't know what they are doing themselves it's impossible for the pro's to predict what they will do. There is such a variance of played hands, that I think a pro's advantage will be shaved considerably.

I think it'd be like 8.5%, cBecause hes the best, but then theirs that chance of a fish going all in with 6s

yea i agree - skill is out the window here - im sure he'll get far in many of them, but winning those things is more difficult than you would think.

i know if it were a live game i'd put him to win almost all 100- but this online aspect of poker is too crazy a ballgame. it's almost a different game alltogether ESPECIALLY freeroll