| This is a discussion on New term pot odds within the online poker forums, in the General Poker section; Ok, look first and foremost, I know, I play alot, but, believe it or not, I have no clue how to properlly calculate pot odds ... |
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| New term pot odds Ok, look first and foremost, I know, I play alot, but, believe it or not, I have no clue how to properlly calculate pot odds. I'll tell you as much as I know, and I'll let the rest of you handle the rest for me, because this shit is driving my head in circles. IF we hold an O/E/SD, (Eg) 56 in our hand, flop is 78A rainbow, this means we got to either hit a 9 or a 4 there-fore giving us 8 outs, ok, if the odds of hitting this are about 32%, then that means out of 100 times this happens, we only win about 32% of the time (correct)? same situation, but in a cash game, if the pot is $80 and guy bets $20 then that means it would cost us 20 to win $120, correct? 80+20+20=120, breaking this down gives us 1:6, hence forth my problem, wtf is 1:6, I know it's a ratio, but my problem is coverting this ratio into a percentage. Next question when calculating odds do we take into consideration other ppl's cards? What I mean is lets say it's FR, 9 to a table, if everyone gets 2 cards in a 52 card game then that would mean 18 cards are gone,there-fore the remaining cards in the deck is 52-18=34, now take the same example above that gines us 8 cards to hit out of 30cards correct? (I've just taken the burn and fkop also, hence 30), now this is where it really confuses me 8/30 gives us 3.75:1 (what this number is I have no clue? do this backwards, and you come up with 26.6%, as you can see there's multiple questions in the 2nd one but what kills me is the reversal of odds, why is it the bottom end came up with 26.6%, and what is the 3.75 number, plz correct me, because the only odds of calculation I know is the top percentage wise, and that's been killing me at the tables |
| Play Texas Hold'em Online Poker | New term pot odds | |
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| no it woudl cost $20 to win $100 therefore your pot odds are 100:20 or 5:1. You don't have to take into consideratino other ppl's cards...any cards that aren't in yoru hand or on the board are "unknown" and it doesn't matter if they are in the deck or previously folded. To convert x:x you just take the ratio. So 2:1 is 66.6% vs 33.3% and 4:1 is 80% to 20% etc etc. So 1:6 would be 14.3%:85.7%. To take the ratio you just take any given one of the numbers and divide it by the total of the numbers (so 2:1 is 2/3, which means that the "2" has 66.7% to win). Last edited by feitr : 22nd September 2008 at 12:46 AM. |
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| Its 20 to win 20+80, 5 to 1. You don't count money you haven'y put in yet...and its not 30+ cards left in the deck, if you don't know what the cards are they are the deck. Instead of ratios, you could stick to percentages, so $20 would be in $120 total pot and you would need 1/6 (~17%) equity to win the pot...but this is on the next card or if its all in otherwise its implied odds and more complicated. |
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| Ok, not much of your analysis is correct here so good you asked. First of all, you cant count any cards you do not know, the folded cards could be anything so you cant count that. As for pot odds, your compare your equity against what your odds are. In your betting situation you would have to put in 20 to win 100(80+20), you cannot count the 20 you would put in because you dont put it in unless you called. so you would be getting 5:1(100/20) so you need 4:1(25%) to call. However, you have to keep in mind that there are multiple streets, so if this is all in then its a call because you are getting more than 25% and its a ev+ play on pot odds alone. Since there are 2 streets, you will probably face another bet on the turn so pot odds alone may not be enough. However, if you do hit you will probably will more money(implied odds) so calling is definetely correct here. |
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| re: New term pot odds poker Here is a good article on Pot Odds and specifically a section on conversion from ratios to percentages: Pot odds - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The main trick to remember is to add the ratio and divede 100 by that number. 4:1 is 100/5 is 20% (or 1/5 which is .2) Question 2. No. You only consider cards KNOWN. So your unknown set shrinks by ONE card at each street making the % just a teeny bit bigger each time. This is standard for statistics. cAPS |
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There's also implied odds and expected odds to consider, but let's save this for later. Quote:
If either he or you is all-in, then that is all you can win. If you were on a str8 draw or a flush draw, that's about what you'd need to call in a cash game with only 1 card to come. With both the turn and the river to come you'd be getting more than enough odds to call. Quote:
In fact, if you could somehow see everyones hole cards and sa saw that one of your OUTS had been dealt to another player, your odds of drawing one of the remaining OUTS could actually improve. If your looking for any diamond for example and there are 9 left out of 46 unseen cards your drawing odds (not pot odds) would be 9:37 or about 24%. If you could see that one of the 8 other players had mucked a diamond, you would have to remove that card as a possibility, but you would also remove the 15 other non diamonds from the solution. SO your odds of catching an OUT would now be 8:22 or about 36%. This actually happens all the time in STUD. I hope this was readble. My kids are all over me for story time so I gota run. Think I'll read them chapter 2 of Multivariate Statistics 5th edition. |
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Take the total amount of money in the pot. Take the amount of money you must call. Set up a ratio between the two of these. So if there is $100 in the pot, and somebody bets $60 into the pot there is $160 in the pot ($100 + villain's bet of $60) and it costs you $60 to call. Therefore, the ratio is $60:$160. Reduce this and you have 3:8 pot odds to call (60:160 reduces to 6:16 which becomes 3:8...just makes it "easier" to look at). But in practice, you'd just round this off to 3:1 because it is a close enough approx. Therefore, you'd want >1:3 equity in the pot vs a person's range (so greater than 25%) in order to have odds to make the call. If there are streets to act, then your pot odds don't have to equal your equity odds if you have implied odds on a later street to make up for this. To convert something like 2:1 to a % value, you just take the "2" and divide it by 3 (2+1). This gives you 67%. To convert 4:1, you take the "4" and divide it by 5 (4 +1) which gives you 80%. As simple as i can make it sorry. The math is quite basic, but if you don't understand these ideas i'd try to learn some simple probability/fraction/arithmetic concepts. |
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My problem isn't so much the math, but understanding how you apply it here. The 2.67/1 odds (I whipped out my calculator at the table and made everyone wait) are my pot odds to make this call (the $60 call with the $160 pot). So I want greater than (rounding to) 3:1 odds that I will hit my hand. And this is hit a hand that beats what I figure the villian has? (that persons range) The post flop two way straight draw example is 8 outs of 47 unseen cards is 8/47 or 5.8:1? So that 5.8:1 is what you compare to the 3:1 pot odds to make your decision to call? But that's eight outs twice, and now I have no idea. |
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Let's say that villain will bet the turn, but that villain probably has a strong holding where you have implied odds. Say villain bets $40 into a $60 pot on the flop. You have a flush draw and so have 1:4 chance of hitting your hand from flop to turn. You are given 2:5 pot odds to make the call. To make the flop call profitable, you only need to gain another >$60 total in the hand (because you would have now invested $40 to make $60 + $40 + $60 = $160 and $40:$160 is the 1:4 you needed. If villain has any sort of hand this shouldn't be hard seeing as the pot after the flop would be $140 so this isn't even a half pot sized bet. If you missed on the turn, you'd have to reevaluate and figure out whether or not the pot odds you are getting on the turn, when combined with the amount of value you could get from villain on the river, makes it a +EV play. |
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| Generally, you need to compare your pot odds with your hand odds (odds of you making the hand). Your hand odds must be LESS than the pot odds to call the bet. Figuring your hand odds after flop: outs x 4 divide that into 100 take away 1 eg. >>>> 5 outs x 4 = 20, divided into 100 = 5, minus 1 = 4 (4:1) In the example above your odds of making the hand by the river are 4:1 So if your pot odds are higher than 4:1, you may want to call the bet! (same formula after the turn, just multilply your outs by 2 instead of 4) A quick shortcut to figuring outs is to remember the "984" rule: 9 outs with a 4 flush draw 8 outs with an open end straight draw 4 outs with and inside straight draw then just multilpy those by 4 or 2 |
Number of Posts: 14
Number of Authors: 10