My February 200NL adventure (prop bet)

Hi. My name is combuboom, and I lack motivation. I need to turn shit around, and I need to do it fast.

I look at the forums and see the likes of bw, Chuck, zach, Belgo, Chris_TC all posting sick graphs of their poker earnings while I'm sitting on my ass eating a s'mores pop tart into the shape of a gun and arguing with twizzybop about WA/WB situations. Why can't I be cool like them? Well, for starters: I never f**king play. It's a psychological bug that's plagued me ever since I began playing poker. I've been content to play tiny sessions and book small wins fearing the inevitable downswing. That and I fear maybe I'm not good enough. I have confidence in my theory, analysis, strategy, sure, but making decisions in the heat of the moment is a whole different ball game.

Well it's time to play ball, motherf**kers.

How do you break a 2 1/2 year old habit in a matter of days? Well, the plan is to look like a complete ass if I don't. I've got $750 in combined prop bets riding on this (vs. Chuck, Jagsti, Irexes, Deltafrost, switch, and another friend). That and pride. If I revert to my lame ways, this thread will forever be my shame.

The bet: I must play at least 50,000 hands at $1/$2 full ring on Full Tilt Poker in February, playing no more than 9 tables at once. I must have a winning rate by the end of the month. If any of these criteria aren't met, I lose. I'll use HEM to update and ultimately verify my failure or success.

I see it as a solid challenge for a low-volume player such as myself. It's out of my comfort zone, and I have to beat the game for a profit. Just to give you an idea, here's some background info:

-200NL is the highest I've ever played -- at about 25k hands lifetime I have no legit proof I'm a long-term winner there, and most of those hands were a year ago.
-I've never played more than 10k hands of cash in a month.
-I've never played more than 2k hands of cash in a single day.
-I've never 9-tabled cash before -- I was going to practice before this started but, um, then I didn't. Let's wing it.
-I'm a 21 year old college student taking three classes.
-I'd like to think I have some sort of a social life to maintain.

Am I expecting to make it all the way? Not entirely. But if I give it a shot, put in a respectable number of hands for once in my life, and play well, I'll chalk it up as a moral victory. Win or lose, I can't imagine this being anything but a positive thing for me and my horribly damaged poker psyche in the long run. But I'd much rather win.

Updates to come.

Good luck. I cannot wait until I can move up and play those kind of stakes. I will track this.

imua imua a lanakila= forward, forward to victory

Go get em champ


BTW thata lotta friggen hands

Heh, looking forward to the regular updates, combu.

gogogo

Sounds... Interestring
Good luck with the bet, make sure you don't tilt away though!
Looking for the updates.

goo combuboom goo , I admire your ballsery bunnery tude

Good luck with this Combu...... not that you need luck you lazy dog. I could so this in a week

You will do it and win $750 as a bonus!

I root for you, Combu. Good luck with the challenge!!

Does anybody want side action?

Good luck to you. Is it good or bad that you chose a 28 day month to do a month long challenge? Anyway, in your hopes of making these hands and taking three classes and doing the necessary analysis to work on your game and achieve a winning status as well, I'd think it's fairly safe to say that a social life in February will be difficult.

Though hitting the hand count is achievable based on you criteria even if you don't 9-table. How many tables do you normally play? 6? Well, 6 tables @ 60 hands/hour for 28 days would mean about five hours per day on average if you play every day. Definitely achieveable for your challenge. Of course the winning rate thing is a different challenge for you. I'll be interested to see your results.

Best of luck to ya.

49,999 hands ftw.

i will laff at your failure, don't go broke though, since ill need paying

Are we running a side contest on the total?


If combu's okay with the extra attention it might draw (and thereby the extra pressure) I'll throw in $10 on Stars to the person who guesses closest to his actual total, 50 post minimum at time of guessing.


Pending combu's okay.

sounds great to me, NL! very cool of you to do

time to fire up some tables before the super bowl party poker (go cardinals!)

gl combuboom i was just watching you play couple min ago saw you pick up trip jacks for $60 pot approx gj ... ps how often you think you are going to do updates sessionly (lol if thats a word), daily, er weekly etc..?

Hehe Good luck, keep me updated!

I might. What are you proposing?

Okay, for anyone interested, I'm taking guesses for what combu's actual hand total will be for this. We'll see if any non-regs are following this thread.

$10 on PokerStars to the closest answer.

Minimum 50 posts to guess.

Must guess in this thread, then come back to the thread and post to claim your prize. (I'm to lazy to PM, and this is all to generate activity anyways)

Deadline to guess; Feb 14 ('cause it's midmonth and Valentine's day)




combu ineligible to participate, obv.

gogogo!

Hey, it's easier than trying to win the $100 freerolls on Tilt!

38450.

50001

Anybody want side action who plays on party?

I'm willing to give action in favor of Combu's proposition but would need odds of 2.5:1. Would put down up to $300.

Or maybe you can come up with some other side bet. If so, please let me know.

tl;dr

jk: 54,090

gl sir!

50,008 hands.

Meh, I kind of think hes gonna get it done so I don't want to bet against it, lol.

51.093

i'll probably post at least a few hands of interest or possibly tilt-induced rants about once a day, but i'm not going for any strict schedule. graphs i will post a bit less often, but once a week at the very minimum

thanks for the love and motivation, everyone . in the spirit of the first day, i'll give a brief run-down in my next post, before i head off to my super bowl party

42,785

Its an awfully short month...

So, first day. It didn't start out so good. All my marginal hands were getting 3bet to death, yet I don't think I got any of my QQ+ 3bet once unless it was by AA. I don't know if I was just running into hand after hand or what, but it felt like I was getting run over for hours. I got really discouraged. Things finally turned around though, as I hit a nice little rush and got paid off on some hands. I'm quite happy.

A few hands of note:

--------------------
HAND #1
--------------------

Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (UTG): $400.80 (200.4 bb)
UTG+1: $200 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $164.25 (82.1 bb)
MP1: $515.90 (258 bb)
MP2: $152 (76 bb)
MP3: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $400 (200 bb)
SB: $223.60 (111.8 bb)
BB: $437.95 (219 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG with K A
Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, MP2 calls $7, 4 folds

Flop: ($17) 3 Q T (2 players)
Hero bets $12, MP2 calls $12

Turn: ($41) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

River: ($41) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $20, Hero calls $20

Results: $81 pot ($3 rake)
MP2 showed J K (a pair of Threes) and lost (-$39 net)
Hero showed K A (a pair of Threes) and won $78 ($39 net)

AK is the nuts bro, I cawl you.

--------------------
HAND #2
--------------------

Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP3: $256.40 (128.2 bb)
CO: $205.35 (102.7 bb)
BTN: $200 (100 bb)
SB: $185 (92.5 bb)
BB: $207.65 (103.8 bb)
UTG+2: $68.90 (34.5 bb)
Hero (MP1): $200 (100 bb)
MP2: $41 (20.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with A Q
UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, CO calls $7, 3 folds

Flop: ($17) Q 4 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $12, CO raises to $34, Hero calls $22

Turn: ($85) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $55, Hero raises to $159 and is all-in, CO calls $104

River: ($403) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $403 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed A Q (two pairs, Queens and Fours) and lost (-$200 net)
CO showed 7 7 (a full house, Sevens full of Fours) and won $400 ($200 net)

This one was really painful. I said to myself, the only way I'm in trouble is if he hit the godforsaken 7, out of his entire huge range. I think my flop play is optimal since his raise c-bet % was really high so I wanted to give him some rope. I was c/r-ing most turns.

--------------------
HAND #3
--------------------

Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP2: $89 (44.5 bb)
Hero (MP3): $354 (177 bb)
CO: $210 (105 bb)
BTN: $37 (18.5 bb)
SB: $219.60 (109.8 bb)
BB: $206.40 (103.2 bb)
UTG+1: $160.35 (80.2 bb)
UTG+2: $71.50 (35.8 bb)
MP1: $61.35 (30.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with A J
4 folds, Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($15) J A 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB calls $11

Turn: ($37) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $26, BB raises to $70, Hero raises to $336 and is all-in, BB calls $118.40 and is all-in

River: ($413.80) 6 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $413.80 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed A J (two pairs, Aces and Jacks) and lost (-$206.40 net)
BB showed K Q (a straight, Ten to Ace) and won $410.80 ($204.40 net)

My note on him was that he overvalued hands. I'm pretty sure he'd play A3, AT, and JT the same way and get them in, so I think I just have to shove. Also hard to put him on the gutshot since he peeled it out of position like a pro.

--------------------
HAND #4
--------------------

Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP3: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $201.20 (100.6 bb)
BTN: $475.30 (237.7 bb)
SB: $191 (95.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $441.90 (221 bb)
UTG+2: $270.10 (135.1 bb)
MP1: $210.95 (105.5 bb)
MP2: $203 (101.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with A A
5 folds, BTN raises to $7, SB folds, Hero raises to $22, BTN calls $15

Flop: ($45) 7 A J (2 players)
Hero bets $28, BTN calls $28

Turn: ($101) K (2 players)
Hero bets $68, BTN calls $68

River: ($237) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $150, BTN calls $150

Results: $537 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed A A (three of a kind, Aces) and won $534 ($266 net)
BTN mucked and lost (-$268 net)

He had KJ. I think I did pretty well to get that much out of him since his hand is a bluff-catcher on all streets.

Graph for day 1:



I'm off to get drunk and root for Arizona. Happy super bowl, everyone.

its a short month indeed but he is playing 9 tables at a time. i was doing some math, and looking at the tables he was playing there was a bout an average of 90 hands an hour per table (or more.. thats a low estimate a lot actually seem to be running around 100 per hour according to full tilt) so thats 810 hands per hour approx, 50,000/810 = 61.72 hours so well just say 62 hours. 62/28= 2.2 hours per day he will have to play to reach this goal which should be obtainable for him if he is set on doing it IMO.

sigh, significantly ahead of day 1 pace

nikeballa, I think you may have been looking at the hands per hour on the 6max tables. full ring is quite a bit lower

haha, switch. well, i better be ahead of day 1 pace. i'm still fresh and not fatigued. if i couldn't beat the pace on the first day i'd be good and screwed. i suspect it will get tough as weekdays bring school and the long sessions start to wear on me. but i'm in it for the long haul

ah yea thanks for catching that, full ring tables 9 max im seeing around a few around 100 a few around mid 70s and such according to full tilt, so ill 70 per for a low estimate this time. so that would be 630 hands an hour 50,000/630 = 79.35 hours so well say 79 hours just to estimate, 79/28= 2.8 hours a day still very possible especially since this is a pretty low estimate and as he posted above he is already above pace.

Good luck combuboom, 51000.

stop with the positive posts people, negativity ftw

also how come i was the only won without a capital letter in op? huh punk?