Maths question rolled up vs. rolled up

Just a few minutes ago I recieved rolled up deuces in a .25/.5 7-card stud hi/lo game. After raising and capping the action on third street, I started to feel that I might be up against rolled up fives, so I called all the way loosing about 2.25 dollars in the hand.

He showed the rolled up fives that had turned into full house on 6th street. I think my calling was fair cause I had a bad feeling of the hand and someone can still be playing a pair like aces and kings this way.

However, mathematically looking my play might have been bad as rolled up hands are hard to come by, but I would like to know what the exact odds are of being against another rolled up hand when I look down at my 222.

Dont know the exact answer (how many players for example) but odds are astronomical; I play stud8 for years and cant remember ever seeing it.

That having been said, it is critical in stud to watch others cards and boards, and u dont tell us how his board developed. Did it look like he was going low? Then you are screwed/fooled. If he caught a pr or fl draw on board, you could figure him for high -- rolled 2s is not THAT great.

Anyway, is very very unusual in stud or stud8.

Below is the hand history. The funny thing is that I was just about to stop playing and had already disabled the auto-post blind. Just felt something wrong about this hand after the capping on third street. Still didn't fold as there might be hands like a pair of aces or kings that are paying me off if my 'read' was wrong and I guess I lost the minimum possible.

Only one superuser on UB - me


Stage #1569225021: Seven Card Hi/Lo Normal $0.25/$0.50 - 2009-08-04 16:00:22 (ET)
Seat 1 - TWEAKIS ($10.24 in chips)
Seat 2 - 65DEUCE ($10.83 in chips)
Seat 3 - SPONSOR ($2.02 in chips)
Seat 4 - ALLN12 ($22.40 in chips)
Seat 5 - PAPA PITHOG ($5.13 in chips)
Seat 6 - MICHIGANCRIB ($8.41 in chips)
Seat 7 - ATKO8908 ($14.60 in chips)
Seat 8 - DRCOD1 ($4.95 in chips)
ATKO8908 - Ante $0.05
65DEUCE - Ante $0.05
ALLN12 - Ante $0.05
MICHIGANCRIB - Ante $0.05
DRCOD1 - Ante $0.05
SPONSOR - Ante $0.05
TWEAKIS - Ante $0.05
*** 3rd STREET ***
TWEAKIS - Pocket [H H 8d]
65DEUCE - Pocket [2c 2s 2h]
SPONSOR - Pocket [H H 9h]
ALLN12 - Pocket [H H 6h]
MICHIGANCRIB - Pocket [H H 7h]
ATKO8908 - Pocket [H H 5h]
DRCOD1 - Pocket [H H Jh]
65DEUCE - Bets $0.25
SPONSOR - Folds
ALLN12 - Folds
MICHIGANCRIB - Folds
ATKO8908 - Raises $0.50 to $0.50
DRCOD1 - Folds
TWEAKIS - Calls $0.50
65DEUCE - Raises $0.50 to $0.75
ATKO8908 - Raises $0.50 to $1
TWEAKIS - Folds
65DEUCE - Calls $0.25
*** 4TH STREET ***
65DEUCE - Pocket [2c 2s 2h 4h]
ATKO8908 - Pocket [H H 5h 7d]
ATKO8908 - Bets $0.25
65DEUCE - Calls $0.25
*** 5TH STREET ***
65DEUCE - Pocket [2c 2s 2h 4h 9c]
ATKO8908 - Pocket [H H 5h 7d 7c]
ATKO8908 - Bets $0.50
65DEUCE - Calls $0.50
*** 6TH STREET ***
65DEUCE - Pocket [2c 2s 2h 4h 9c Kd]
ATKO8908 - Pocket [H H 5h 7d 7c Jc]
ATKO8908 - Bets $0.50
65DEUCE - Calls $0.50
*** RIVER ***
65DEUCE - Pocket [2c 2s 2h 4h 9c Kd 3c]
ATKO8908 - Pocket [H H 5h 7d 7c Jc H]
ATKO8908 - Bets $0.50
65DEUCE - Calls $0.50
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ATKO8908 - Shows [5d 5s 5h 7d 7c Jc 4d] (Full house, fives full of sevens)
65DEUCE - Mucks
ATKO8908 Collects $6.05 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($6.35) | Rake ($0.30)
Seat 1: TWEAKIS Folded on the 3rd STREET
Seat 2: 65DEUCE HI: [Mucked] [2c 2s 2h 4h 9c Kd 3c]
Seat 3: SPONSOR Folded on the 3rd STREET
Seat 4: ALLN12 Folded on the 3rd STREET
Seat 6: MICHIGANCRIB Folded on the 3rd STREET
Seat 7: ATKO8908 won Total ($6.05) HI$6.05) with Full house, fives full of sevens [5d 5s 5h 7d 7c Jc 4d - P:5s,B:5h,P:5d,B:7d,B:7c]
Seat 8: DRCOD1 Folded on the 3rd STREET

And again: This is the second time inside 2k hands. I was a bit afraid of it again, but this time the player was one of the worst players on the table so his range is super wide:

Stage #1599009345: Seven Card Hi/Lo Normal $0.25/$0.50 - 2009-08-21 12:56:17 (ET)
Seat 1 - STRAYCAT333 ($1.35 in chips)
Seat 2 - UACATS06 ($6.07 in chips)
Seat 3 - JAMESYANKS ($11.05 in chips)
Seat 4 - 65DEUCE ($17.01 in chips)
Seat 5 - BRIANRULZ ($24.34 in chips)
Seat 6 - DEB NEVA WIN ($5.88 in chips)
Seat 7 - HONORE69 ($14.15 in chips)
Seat 8 - X_FACTOR_ ($2.55 in chips)
UACATS06 - Ante $0.05
JAMESYANKS - Ante $0.05
X_FACTOR_ - Ante $0.05
DEB NEVA WIN - Ante $0.05
65DEUCE - Ante $0.05
HONORE69 - Ante $0.05
BRIANRULZ - Ante $0.05
STRAYCAT333 - Ante $0.05
*** 3rd STREET ***
STRAYCAT333 - Pocket [H H 8h]
UACATS06 - Pocket [H H Ad]
JAMESYANKS - Pocket [H H Qc]
65DEUCE - Pocket [3d 3c 3h]
BRIANRULZ - Pocket [H H 5h]
DEB NEVA WIN - Pocket [H H 2d]
HONORE69 - Pocket [H H 4d]
X_FACTOR_ - Pocket [H H 8c]
DEB NEVA WIN - Bring-In $0.10
HONORE69 - Calls $0.10
X_FACTOR_ - Calls $0.10
STRAYCAT333 - Calls $0.10
UACATS06 - Raises $0.25 to $0.25
JAMESYANKS - Calls $0.25
65DEUCE - Raises $0.50 to $0.50
BRIANRULZ - Folds
DEB NEVA WIN - Folds
HONORE69 - Calls $0.40
X_FACTOR_ - Calls $0.40
STRAYCAT333 - Calls $0.40
UACATS06 - Raises $0.50 to $0.75
JAMESYANKS - Calls $0.50
65DEUCE - Raises $0.50 to $1
HONORE69 - Calls $0.50
X_FACTOR_ - Calls $0.50
STRAYCAT333 - Calls $0.50
UACATS06 - Calls $0.25
JAMESYANKS - Calls $0.25
*** 4TH STREET ***
STRAYCAT333 - Pocket [H H 8h 6h]
UACATS06 - Pocket [H H Ad 9d]
JAMESYANKS - Pocket [H H Qc 6c]
65DEUCE - Pocket [3d 3c 3h 2c]
HONORE69 - Pocket [H H 4d 5d]
X_FACTOR_ - Pocket [H H 8c Jd]
UACATS06 - Bets $0.25
JAMESYANKS - Calls $0.25
65DEUCE - Raises $0.50 to $0.50
HONORE69 - Calls $0.50
X_FACTOR_ - Folds
STRAYCAT333 - All-In $0.30
UACATS06 - Raises $0.50 to $0.75
JAMESYANKS - Calls $0.50
65DEUCE - Calls $0.25
HONORE69 - Calls $0.25
*** 5TH STREET ***
STRAYCAT333 - Pocket [H H 8h 6h 7s]
UACATS06 - Pocket [H H Ad 9d 8d]
JAMESYANKS - Pocket [H H Qc 6c Qh]
65DEUCE - Pocket [3d 3c 3h 2c Qd]
HONORE69 - Pocket [H H 4d 5d 6d]
JAMESYANKS - Bets $0.50
65DEUCE - Calls $0.50
HONORE69 - Calls $0.50
UACATS06 - Raises $1 to $1
JAMESYANKS - Calls $0.50
65DEUCE - Calls $0.50
HONORE69 - Calls $0.50
*** 6TH STREET ***
STRAYCAT333 - Pocket [H H 8h 6h 7s 4h]
UACATS06 - Pocket [H H Ad 9d 8d 9h]
JAMESYANKS - Pocket [H H Qc 6c Qh Kh]
65DEUCE - Pocket [3d 3c 3h 2c Qd 5c]
HONORE69 - Pocket [H H 4d 5d 6d 7c]
JAMESYANKS - Checks
65DEUCE - Checks
HONORE69 - Checks
UACATS06 - Bets $0.50
JAMESYANKS - Calls $0.50
65DEUCE - Calls $0.50
HONORE69 - Calls $0.50
*** RIVER ***
STRAYCAT333 - Pocket [H H 8h 6h 7s 4h H]
UACATS06 - Pocket [H H Ad 9d 8d 9h H]
JAMESYANKS - Pocket [H H Qc 6c Qh Kh H]
65DEUCE - Pocket [3d 3c 3h 2c Qd 5c 2h]
HONORE69 - Pocket [H H 4d 5d 6d 7c H]
JAMESYANKS - Checks
65DEUCE - Bets $0.50
HONORE69 - Folds
UACATS06 - Raises $1 to $1
JAMESYANKS - Calls $1
65DEUCE - Raises $1 to $1.50
UACATS06 - Raises $1 to $2
JAMESYANKS - Calls $1
65DEUCE - Calls $0.50
*** SHOW DOWN ***
UACATS06 - Shows [As Ac Ad 9d 8d 9h 4s] (Full house, aces full of nines)
JAMESYANKS - Mucks
65DEUCE - Mucks
STRAYCAT333 - Mucks
UACATS06 Collects $13.17 from side pot-1
UACATS06 Collects $7.63 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($21.80:$8,$13.80) | Rake ($1:$0.37,$0.63)
Seat 1: STRAYCAT333 HI: [Mucked] [Kd Kc 8h 6h 7s 4h 8s]
Seat 2: UACATS06 won Total ($20.80) HI$20.80) with Full house, aces full of nines [As Ac Ad 9d 8d 9h 4s - P:As,B:Ad,P:Ac,B:9h,B:9d]
Seat 3: JAMESYANKS HI: [Mucked] [10s Qs Qc 6c Qh Kh 9s]
Seat 4: 65DEUCE HI: [Mucked] [3d 3c 3h 2c Qd 5c 2h]
Seat 5: BRIANRULZ Folded on the 3rd STREET
Seat 6: DEB NEVA WIN Folded on the 3rd STREET
Seat 7: HONORE69 Folded on the RIVER
Seat 8: X_FACTOR_ Folded on the 4TH STREET

I laid down rolled up Kings in a horse tournament once because i thought we were still playing Razz.

Odds of getting dealt rolled trips is 1 in 425.

Thus, its roughly going to happen 0.055% of the time. And even if you're wrong, you can still fill up and beat them when they don't fill, or make a runner/runner low.

However, just because it happens rarely doesn't mean you can't recognize it & act on your decision.

Btw, I play Stud 8 on UB as well. Gimme a holler on AIM sometime if you want a study buddy.

If i got tolled up trips im taking it to the river unless their upcards suggest i shouldnt. Just very unlucky if someone else has you beat pre 4th street. At end of the day 1 day youl get rolled up 5s when someone else will have rolle dup 2s.

1 in 425 is correct, however , this converts to 0.0024 = 0.24%, not 0.055%.

fact(52)/fact(3)/fact(52-3) = 22,100 possible three-card hands
fact(4)/fact(3)/fact(4-3) * 13 = 52 possible rolled up trip hands

52/22,100 = 0.0024 = 0.24% = 1 in 425 = probability of your getting dealt rolled up trips of any rank

Given that you have rolled up trips,

fact(49)/fact(3)/fact(49-3) = 18,424 possible three-card hands taking into account you have trips

fact(4)/fact(3)/fact(4-3) * 12 * 7 = 0.0182 = 1.82% = 1 in 54.83 = probability of any one of your seven opponents also having rolled up trips

Obviously, the higher in rank your trips are, the better your chances against another set of trips.

I've done something similar several times. I feel like such an idiot. It's always when I'm multi-tabling, though, and not paying close enough attention.