March prop bet for hands played, winrate

For someone who has a TON of time on his hands and a great opportunity to set up the rest of his life with potential poker winnings, I'm a huge slacker.

I've decided to start this thread early since I'm not entirely sure about the details of it yet and would like some feedback from those interested in putting some moneys down.

Whipping through HEM now to give you an idea of what my volume and winrate has been like for the past year. Stats have been filtered for 25nl-400nl since I never played anything more than like 1k hands in any other stakes and I don't think that they'd be relevant. I can post with them if needed.

Overall including full ring:



Filtered for 6max:



Session tab showing my monthly volume and winnings:



Also, although it doesn't show the winrate in BB/100 in the sessions tab, my winrates are as follows month by month:

'07
Dec: 6.6
'08
Jan: 3.4
Feb: 5.7
Mar: ~0
Apr: 5.6
May: 4.5
June: 5
July: 3.4
Aug: 9.3
Sep: 14.4
Oct: ~0
Nov: 4.1
Dec: 1.3
'09
Jan: 5.6
Feb so far: 6.5

As you can see I started playing 6max full time in August last year. This is important because...

The conditions: strictly 6 max, strictly 200nl and 400nl, and we can discuss volume in # of hands, a certain winrate, and the odds I'll be laying will depend on that.

Some things:

- I have to take care of my grandmother for usually two days during the week, and during those days I generally can't play because I have to keep a close eye on her.
- I, like combu, like to think I have a social life to maintain, as well as a relationship with a very special lil lady, so that cuts into my playing time somewhat. Admittedly, lil lady is starting work (today actually) and I won't be seeing her as much in March. Most of my friends are also out of the city (in school or traveling etc), so I don't go out all that often.
- I used to 8-12 table full ring. Since moving to 6max I think I've averaged 5 tables, more recently 4. This cuts into the hands/hour.

That's all the details I can think of. I'm either going to go all out and try for 100k hands with like 2ptbb/100, or I'll go a little easy and shoot for something like 60k with 3ptbb/100. Very minimum I'll be going for 50k, more than I've ever played before.

If there's anything else you need to know, just ask. I can also provide stats via teamviewer if needed for those placing bets.

LET THE GREAT EXPERIMENT BEGINNNN!!!!

60k hands seems like a lot to play while only 4-tabling, does it not Chuck?

If you end up shooting for 100k hands, I'm certainly down for some action.

yeah, I'm probably upping it to 6 tables, can't do any more than that.

What's the concensus on avg hands/hour on 6max tables now? 90?

yeah ~90 hands per hour for 6max seems to be on all the google links I checked.

I'm confused though, are u shooting at 50k+ playing 6max around 6 tables at a time ?
Isn't that like a BOATload of hours seeing as combu is struggling doing it on FR 9 tabling (no idea how many hours he plays though)?

I think I average about 500 hands / hour when 6-tabling 6-max.

Jezus that's 100+ hours for this to go down

im defoo interested in losing more money after combu hustled us all as will prob win his.

what are the odds your offering for either 60 or 100k? even?

way to steal my thunder, punk

The difference between me and combu is that combu goes to school enty. I have almost every day free.

That said, I still may have to rethink 100k hands

60k is big too.

And this is why I needed to discuss it beforehand.

Assuming 90 hands/hr (which seems to be the avg):

4-tabling: 166 hours, 5.5 hours/day on avg.
5-tabling: 133 hrs, 4.4 hrs/day on avg
6-tabling: 111 hrs, 3.7 hrs/day on avg
8-tabling: 83 hrs, 2.8 hrs/day on avg

...need to be played in order to reach 60k hands.

Anything more is basically suicide now that I look at the numbers.

As many of you know I have a bad tilt problem which is going to be the biggest problem. I can maintain 8 tables (nitting it up to 20/17 or something probably), but when I tilt I have to shut down completely.

sorry combu

Count me in for the 100k hands (assuming odds are acceptable).

Also Chuck, how do you plan to combine this with your new mental game improvements ?

IE: warming up/down with every session, breathing exercises, reviewing sessions etc etc ?

Assuming you go for 60k, that's 111hours 6-tabling, or 3.7 h/day on avg looking at your numbers, can you play 4hours/day on avg when u have to take 2 full days off every week minimum ?

Yeah that's definitely something I've thought about. What will most probably happen is that I'll consider every day a session, and do my up/down stuff at the beginning/end of each day.

I guess the mental coaching is a plus and a minus for me. For one it'll help me cope with the variance and longer hours, but on the other hand it takes up quite a bit of time and effort.

edit: now that I think about it Jared said the full coaching would open up in March. Going along with the above, that could be good and bad for me.

also you're neglecting to factor in one variable: i suck

i'm playing a solid amount of hours (will probably end up being around 100 for the month i think) but i'm also not 9-tabling at all times. at times when the games are bad it's tough to find even 6 decent (not reg-filled) FR tables, let alone 9, and i'm kind of into table selecting. so that's part of it, i'm 6-8 tabling quite a bit. i'm not sure if that's as much an issue at 6max on pokerstars or not, or how much chuck believes in table selecting

k, I'm off to actually play today since I have the day off. Keep posting suggestions for the odds, number of hands and winrate. I'm not going to lay odds until I figure out what the volume/WR will be.

be back in a few hours.

Yeah, you don't want the pressure to play more hands to cause you to tilt faster, or harder, or to try to play through it. That'd be a recipe for a disaster.

I might take a little action even if it is something to keep you totally focused for the month Chuck, keep us updated on what you decide.

Maybe you can give a full tote board with odds and people can place wagers for or against you. Hell I'll be the bookie lol ... something like

40k+ Threshold
40k Hands + 2BB/100 Winrate. If you bet FOR this happening, $1 bet = $1.25. Against (meaning less than 40k hands or 40k+ but 2.9BB/100 or lower) $1 bet = $1.75

50k+ Threshold
50k Hands + 3.5BB/100 Winrate. For $1 bet = $2 return if you win. Against $1 bet = $1.50 return

Something like that?

if you go 100k hands, I'd be willing to bet against at like 4:1 odds.

Plus you can make a ton of monies actually playing close to 100k

So I've decided on 60k hands. I simply don't have time to play more, and I think the relatively small amount that I'd be betting would be insignificant to the amount I could potentially lose playing 100k hands or whatever.

Again to lay out exactly how much poker that is:

On average I need to play 1,935 hands per day on average, but if I'm busy for 8 days taking care of my Oma, that means 2,608 hands per day which would also up my avg hrs/day played.

I think going for 2ptbb/100 or 3ptbb/100 depending on the odds layed would be good.

Thoughts on what kind of odds you guys want on this?

I'm thinking I'll take no more than $1k in action on this btw

What limit are you going to play? $1K won't be very motivational for you if you play 2/4, methinks.
You'll be up $5K after one week and say "f.. it, I'll pay them and take it easy for the rest of the month"

So this would actually be the one reason making me wanna bet against you. I know you'll pull off the winrate, and I know you'll pull off the number of hands if enough money is wagered.

2 BB/100 at 200nl+ 6-max and I'll put up $100 to your $50?

60k hands, correct WV? Sounds good to me. So that's 2:1 for me for 60k hands, 2ptbb/100 in the month of March. Sounds pretty good.

Chris: you have a point with the money issue. We'll see how many people want to put down money. I'll probably accept more than 1k if it gets that high.

Yeah, 60K. I don't think win rate will be a problem for you but I actually think you're lazier than Combuboom. Plus like Chris said, I think you'll win enough that you'll just figure paying off will be easier. I do wish you the best though.

heh, thanks wv. Hopefully this helps change the laziness into aggressive poker volumeage.

I'll make a new thread with the official rules and take official bets later on, after everyone else who wants in gets a chance to agree/offer suggestions for different conditions.

A question: If I play 60k hands but am under the required winrate, I can keep playing (as long as it's within the month) to reach them, correct? Or is the winrate condition strictly within the first 60k hands?

how DARE you

ill lay $200 to your $150 for 60k hands, (and you are allowed to keep grinding past 60k if you havn't got the winrate high enough)

You can certainly keep playing beyond 60K as far as I'm concerned to reach the winrate required. I wonder how much I would have to pay Jared to tell you to play less???

It's not that I don't think you're lazy, you are. I just think Chuck's got you covered plus he's playing 6-max and going for more hands. Wait you're right, that's way too ambitious, I take it back Combu is the laziest!!

I'm not completely opposed to 4:3. Mainly because i forgot to mention that I've been practicing 8-tabling and feel surprisingly comfortable, even though I've been running like shit lately.

Even so, that's about 3.6 hours/day for me assuming I'm busy with Oma. That sounds both terrifying and exciting.

Hmmm 8-tabling huh? When are you planning on setting the exact terms? $100:$75 is, of course, also good for me.

Keep in mind my tilt problem (which is in the process of getting fixed but will never disappear). When I tilt 8-tabling, the affect on my winrate is doubled vs when I play 4 tables of course.

4:3 is ok, but 2:1 is of course better for me

OR we could even do what icemonkey suggested (or what I think he suggested) which is setting different odds for different landmarks, so to speak. That could of course change the winrate condition from any # of hands to strictly within the specific hand # landmarks.