Lost all my profits of 1$ sngs to shitty variance in 3 days, graphs below, what do?

Im back at the donkey 1$ sngs again due to a massive swing in variance at 2 and 5 dollar sngs nd now just after getting a 10 dollar bonus 3 days ago my profit is gone. Always hitting second best hands or aresholes turning the most ridonkulous hands. at the beginning of my run I was getting sucked out on severley by 3 outers but still hit the money. over the last three days ive cashed very little. today ive had someone river a 1 outer on me. below are my graphs. It is only 160 odd sngs ive played and am aiming for 1k but this is a complete joke. its all that ive had this year in poker is bad variance after making any profit.what do?

my earnings and sessions graphs are attached

Looks like my Rush Poker chart. Just can't figure out what I'm doing wrong. Won a lot in the beginning and although I'm still way up, the line is going down down down.

Losing the most with big pps vs small pps and even when I flop a boat I'm getting killed by 2-outers on the river. Nothing seems to hold. And considering that it's usually heads up pre, the dominated hand seems to always suckout.

If you figure it out, let me know. I could use the help.

So how much was your downswing? Like five buy ins?

no its about 15.its 20+ now its getting worse

If you wanna stick with sngs be prepared for 50 buy in swings at the very, very least. Even at the micros

kk Im only playing single table sngs as well and howcome chris ferguson only suggests 5% of your roll.  I dont no what to play to be honest.  micro cash games are insane with variance massive swings every day i was playing heads up sngs as well for a bit but the suckouts are the same and i can only play one table at a time. <br>

2huskys said:

kk Im only playing single table sngs as well and howcome chris ferguson only suggests 5% of your roll.  I dont no what to play to be honest.  micro cash games are insane with variance massive swings every day i was playing heads up sngs as well for a bit but the suckouts are the same and i can only play one table at a time. <br>

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The thing about the Chris Ferguson 5% of roll rule is that it is assuming you have an appropriate roll for the stakes. If at any point your roll drops below the threshold so that you can buy in 20 times, you are supposed to drop down a level. Since you are already at the lowest stakes (at Full Tilt), there is nowhere to drop down to. This means that HIS bankroll management plan says a 20 buyin swing in SNG or cash ring is very possible and is planned for.

Keep in mind also that Chris Ferguson is one of the top pros and has been playing poker for decades. For someone that might not have as strong a game as him the swings would probably be larger. This is why it's important to formulate your own bankroll management plan based on what you know of yourself.

There are two things to consider here:

1) You may not be as good as you think you are. I don't mean to be harsh or condescending or come off as a jerk, but you may want to review your games a bit more and particularly those hands in which you said you were second best -- to see if there was any way you could have played the hand differently.

2) A 20 buyin swing is very possible, even if you ARE as good as Chris Ferguson. So if you are that confident in your game, then just keep playing and things should go on the upswing eventually. Since you probably AREN'T as good as Chris Ferguson, you may want to have something like at least 30-40 buyins for protection from SNG swings.

A final thought... paying 20% in rake per SNG is pretty atrocious. This also makes it much harder to beat the $1.20 SNG's. As a result, if SNG is your favored game, you may want to deposit or play freerolls until you have a bankroll that can sustain you at least at the $2.25 SNG level. This means having a roll of around $50-75. At least that way you are getting a little better value for your money with respect to rake.

listen to Chris Ferguson

mrmonkey said:

A final thought... paying 20% in rake per SNG is pretty atrocious. This also makes it much harder to beat the $1.20 SNG's. As a result, if SNG is your favored game, you may want to deposit or play freerolls until you have a bankroll that can sustain you at least at the $2.25 SNG level. This means having a roll of around $50-75. At least that way you are getting a little better value for your money with respect to rake.

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I think this, I would rather pay an extra 5 cents and play the $2 games. Its suprising so many people still play the $1 games with such a ridiculous rake.
20 % is too much for these games imo

patience patience patience my friend and don't play out of your range. I just wish i followed my own advice. I had a $500 role and lost it all in one day by playing way over my head. The good thing is i only deposited $10 to get there but i made very poor decisions and lost it all. That's why my new years resolution is to be more patient.

my game is fine for the micro stakes I was playing higher and have recently reviewed it and there arent any major leaks I play a tight aggressive game overall. obviously im not as good as chris ferguson but atm im just getting nothing its like i dont exist in poker i dont hit with ak aq etc i lose my 60-40s i lose 50-50s always run into aa or kk when its 4 handed I always get sucked out on, this was happening when i was cashing and still being profitable but now if i have a hand no one plays or will turn the nuts or something with a stupid hand. I cant really play the 2$ ones until i have a bout 80$-90$ which i was close to. now ive lost 30 odd dollars. its a joke im thinking about quitting poker as my resolution.

wtf!

30+ buy-in swings at micros is not untypical.

ugere said:

listen to Chris Ferguson

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SPAM :dito:

I never listen to those things.. Those are unlikely to help you in any way!
Stick to your bankroll management and do your best!

Long term counts

Husky, I say this with all due respect possible, you are not as good as you think you are. Most of your posts are about how unlucky you got to lose, and many of them have comments similar to there is nothing wrong with my game, or thre are no major leaks in my game. No one plays perfect poker, not Phil Ivey and not you. A while back Daniel Negreaneu did an interview where he admitted that his game had a major flaw for a while after his mother died. If a player the caliber of Daniel can have a major flaw in his game, so can you. Be honest with yourself and with others, your game will improve by leaps and bounds.

standard downswing. nothing special or shocking. I have played over 4k sngs and I still don't think it's enough as there are many CCers and others who have played WAY more than I have played. I've gone 200 sngs of break-even.
Quit playing $1.2 sngs. rake is terrible. Unless you get 1st place very often, you're just piling up money for it to burn, like wizzim said in the past. if you play on full tilt, play every other sngs besides $1.2 sng, such as daily dollar satellites where games are softer and getting top 2 places are easy and 3rd gets nearly their buy-in back. if you play on any other sites, I would play $2.25. Even if you're not rolled for it, you're better off either depositing or just play $2 and gamble it up. $1.2 rake is horrible and you can only beat the offset of rake if you get 1st places often.

2huskys said:

my game is fine for the micro stakes I was playing higher and have recently reviewed it and there arent any major leaks I play a tight aggressive game overall. obviously im not as good as chris ferguson but atm im just getting nothing its like i dont exist in poker i dont hit with ak aq etc i lose my 60-40s i lose 50-50s always run into aa or kk when its 4 handed I always get sucked out on, this was happening when i was cashing and still being profitable but now if i have a hand no one plays or will turn the nuts or something with a stupid hand. I cant really play the 2$ ones until i have a bout 80$-90$ which i was close to. now ive lost 30 odd dollars. its a joke im thinking about quitting poker as my resolution.

wtf!

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Perhaps taking a break wouldn't be a bad idea. Take a few days off, maybe even up to a week. When you're running really bad, usually your poker game also suffers due to tilt and an impression that you are just destined to lose no matter what you do. This type of attitude can wreak havoc on bankrolls that are already affected by the run bad.

Pokerfornia's post reminded me... as you are playing at FTP, I forgot but there are lower single table SNG's that are usually very soft -- the satty's to the Daily Dollar and the BLT. When you win those, you can unregister and get T$ back into your account (provided you buy in with cash or T$, NOT ftp). I personally prefer the .70c satty to the BLT, which gives a ticket to the top 3. These games are usually VERY soft, and should help you grind your way and get some confidence back.

no major leaks? i guarantee you're not shoving wide enough for one

also, you to get out of the mindset where you think to yourself 'sigh i get it in good every time and just keep losing', if you're not getting it in bad you're not shoving enough

dwolfg said:

Husky, I say this with all due respect possible, you are not as good as you think you are. Most of your posts are about how unlucky you got to lose, and many of them have comments similar to there is nothing wrong with my game, or thre are no major leaks in my game. No one plays perfect poker, not Phil Ivey and not you. A while back Daniel Negreaneu did an interview where he admitted that his game had a major flaw for a while after his mother died. If a player the caliber of Daniel can have a major flaw in his game, so can you. Be honest with yourself and with others, your game will improve by leaps and bounds.

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Its funny how everyone says this. what makes you think that i think i have a perfect game?I certainly know i dont. i said I dont have any major flaws that i know of atm and I am being honest trust me I look for everything to make sure im doing my best and am confident in my game. how can there be major flaws in my play if everytime I get my money someone sucks out on me with a 3 outer or less on virtually every game i play. yesterday someone rivered a one outer on me today someone runner runnered twos to beat my flopped queens. now as we speak im heads up went all in with a6 ****** calls with q6 hits queen.and doubles up i had 10k stack he had 2k blinds 200 400. i shove with a8 he has qq.now the piece of shite is goin to win it.see what i mean.btw i do shove enough the game is a load of balls

PoKeRFoRNiA said:

standard downswing. nothing special or shocking. I have played over 4k sngs and I still don't think it's enough as there are many CCers and others who have played WAY more than I have played. I've gone 200 sngs of break-even.
Quit playing $1.2 sngs. rake is terrible. Unless you get 1st place very often, you're just piling up money for it to burn, like wizzim said in the past. if you play on full tilt, play every other sngs besides $1.2 sng, such as daily dollar satellites where games are softer and getting top 2 places are easy and 3rd gets nearly their buy-in back. if you play on any other sites, I would play $2.25. Even if you're not rolled for it, you're better off either depositing or just play $2 and gamble it up. $1.2 rake is horrible and you can only beat the offset of rake if you get 1st places often.

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ok thanks i know the rake is terrible but didnt want to move up to 2.25 again until i have about 90$ especially now after seeing my current run.

2huskys said:

Its funny how everyone says this. what makes you think that i think i have a perfect game?I certainly know i dont. i said I dont have any major flaws that i know of atm and I am being honest trust me I look for everything to make sure im doing my best and am confident in my game. how can there be major flaws in my play if everytime I get my money someone sucks out on me with a 3 outer or less on virtually every game i play. yesterday someone rivered a one outer on me today someone runner runnered twos to beat my flopped queens. now as we speak im heads up went all in with a6 ****** calls with q6 hits queen.and doubles up i had 10k stack he had 2k blinds 200 400. i shove with a8 he has qq.now the piece of shite is goin to win it.see what i mean.btw i do shove enough the game is a load of balls

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If EVERYONE is saying something, maybe you should listen. The fact that you A complained numerous times about bad beats, more than other poker topics and B. You state, as a "fact" that you have no major leaks in your game. Ever wonder why the saying,"The defendant that defends himself has a fool for a client" exists? It is because it is extremely difficult to honestly analyze/judge ones self. That is why poker pros(not me) talk about hands with each other. Looking at your stats on opr, I surnise you are a nit. In tournaments and sngs, you allow your stack to be chipped away to next to nothing waiting for the premium hands, while passing up positive ev situations . I'd guess most of your bad beats occur when you are very short-stacked.

If u are getting your money in good, and getting sucked out on like u say....than whats the problem? We are not supposed to be results orientated? This is the reason we use BRM, because even the top pros can be on the wrong side of variance and go on downswings. So if there are no flaws in your game, and you are a winning player, than things should turn around eventually.

2huskys said:

kk Im only playing single table sngs as well and howcome chris ferguson only suggests 5% of your roll.  I dont no what to play to be honest.  micro cash games are insane with variance massive swings every day i was playing heads up sngs as well for a bit but the suckouts are the same and i can only play one table at a time.

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The number of tables you play doesn't have any effect on your variance. It might affect your winrate if you're playing more tables than you're able to concentrate on but that's it. Playing just one table in no way protects you from variance.

15-20 buy in swings are 100% perfectly standard. I dropped about 9 buyins in the space of 15 STTs this morning even though I don't think I played all that bad and I'm a long-term winner in these games. Long downswings of 50 or more aren't unheard of.

Chris Ferguson's 5% bankroll guideline isn't necessarily written in stone and a lot of people follow a much more conservative method. Personally I like to have at least 100 buyins for the level I'm playing in STTs and I know I'm not the only one.

Now why do I feel like I've just beat my head against a brick wall?