The Long Run

#1 26th December 2009, 1:11 PM

People that say you will win with that hand in the long run i dont understand them ...

Because when you get a bad beat the pot is a monster pot so there is no long run because its a short run and you will be broke...

I know you will say bankroll management but i dont like to play for 10 cent's

Respond please.

#2 26th December 2009, 1:18 PM

You need to start reading up on probability.

If a hand is a 60% favourite at a given point then it wins 60% of the time and looses 40%

So if you play the situation 1000 times, you win 600 times and loose 400 times thus your profit is the difference between the times you win and the times you loose so you your profit is the average pot you take 200 times.

BRM is all about giving yourself the opertunity to play sufficient hands to actually reach the long run. So if you dont like playing for 10c then deposit more cash.

If you are not BR'd to be able to absorb losses, then you cannot play for long enough for luck and varience to even out.

#3 26th December 2009, 1:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu_Ungar

You need to start reading up on probability.

If a hand is a 60% favourite at a given point then it wins 60% of the time and looses 40%

So if you play the situation 1000 times, you win 600 times and loose 400 times thus your profit is the difference between the times you win and the times you loose so you your profit is the average pot you take 200 times.

BRM is all about giving yourself the opertunity to play sufficient hands to actually reach the long run. So if you dont like playing for 10c then deposit more cash.

If you are not BR'd to be able to absorb losses, then you cannot play for long enough for luck and varience to even out.

i dont think you understand haha

#4 26th December 2009, 1:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kamboa

i dont think you understand haha

Enlighten me.

#5 26th December 2009, 1:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu_Ungar

Enlighten me.

ok i will try haha what i am trying to say is lets say you have a 100 euro bankroll and you sit down at the 0.12 - 0.25 blinds ...

and you get AK and the flop comes AA4 oke you probbaly have the nuts.. then the turn comes 10 blank your apponent go's all in he shows AQ

then the river brings Q

then you lost 25 euro

but this is just an example you want your money in to create a big pot and then you lose so ...

there is no long run because you lose quik

#6 26th December 2009, 1:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kamboa

ok i will try haha what i am trying to say is lets say you have a 100 euro bankroll and you sit down at the 0.12 - 0.25 blinds ...

and you get AK and the flop comes AA4 oke you probbaly have the nuts.. then the turn comes 10 blank your apponent go's all in he shows AQ

then the river brings Q

then you lost 25 euro

but this is just an example you want your money in to create a big pot and then you lose so ...

there is no long run because you lose quik

I have already explained this, because you are not BR'd for the game, you are not able to absorb losses for long enough to reach the LR.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu_Ungar

You need to start reading up on probability.

If a hand is a 60% favourite at a given point then it wins 60% of the time and looses 40%

So if you play the situation 1000 times, you win 600 times and loose 400 times thus your profit is the difference between the times you win and the times you loose so you your profit is the average pot you take 200 times.

BRM is all about giving yourself the opportunity to play sufficient hands to actually reach the long run. So if you dont like playing for 10c then deposit more cash.

If you are not BR'd to be able to absorb losses, then you cannot play for long enough for luck and varience to even out.

#7 26th December 2009, 1:47 PM

Just keep redepositing and donating until you're ready to play within your BR.

Problem solved.

#8 26th December 2009, 1:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kamboa

i dont think you understand haha

Actually, you don't understand.

#9 26th December 2009, 2:31 PM

i think stu explained it wonderfully, it made complete sense to me.
thanks stu.

#10 26th December 2009, 2:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kamboa

i dont like to play for 10 cent's

No ? Do you really think 10$ is easier to beat than 0.10$ ? Please visit my tables/tourneys .

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu_Ungar

You need to start reading up on probability.

BRM is all about giving yourself the opertunity to play sufficient hands to actually reach the long run.

[snip]

If you are not BR'd to be able to absorb losses, then you cannot play for long enough for luck and varience to even out.

BRM will limit your losses giving you more time - but if you aren't good you'll go broke eventually anyway, only later.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kamboa

i dont think you understand haha

First time I lol'd in this thread .

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu_Ungar

Enlighten me.

Loling hard here

Quote:

Originally Posted by WVHillbilly

Just keep redepositing and donating until you're ready to play within your BR.

Problem solved.

Oh WV I just love the way you solve problems (...and lol once again)

#11 26th December 2009, 3:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WVHillbilly

Just keep redepositing and donating until you're ready to play within your BR.

Problem solved.

+1

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