Irexes' Happy Fun Supernova Competition

Okeydokely.

As you may or may not be aware after years of being an MTT player I started playing Ring seriously back in April. With modest success I've moved from 25nl to 200nl and then back to 100nl (after 75k hands at 200nl my winrate was in the positive but not enough to justify staying there).

I still consider myself a Ring noob and am learning more daily, but a side-effect of this learning process is that I've been racking up the VPPs and now have an outside chance of making Supernova on Stars by the end of the year.

For those who don't know this requires 100,000 VPPs in a calendar year and bestows a faster rate of FPP accumulation and some other rewards. See here The PokerStars VIP Club - Summary

Current situation is that I have 79485 VPPs with 41 days to go.

This leaves 20515 VPPs to earn at a shade over 500 a day.

By my calculations this is approximately 1337 hands a day at 100nl a total of 54833 hands by 31st December.

So here's the competition:

-The person who has the closest guess to the number of VPPs I have for 2008 at the end of 31st December will win $20. In the event of a tie the person under wins it.

-1 guess per person

- First person to guess a number has it

- members with 50 or more posts only (at time of guess), I'll delete guesses from people with fewer

- guesses can be made up until 27th November midnight UK time.


Here's some other facts and figures that may help your guesses.

I'm currently playing 100nl and play 4-6 tables (usually 6). I play at least 4 hours a day during the week and longer at weekends. Unless I'm tired, ill or something better comes up. This includes family things.

On Sundays I play the Sunday Warmup and if I go deep this means no Ring on Sunday evenings. I'm not playing many other MTTs while doing this (if any).

10 hour sessions are not uncommon at weekends or if I'm on holiday.

I plan to play a lot over the Xmas break.

The graph
The graph below shows my progres red line against where I need to be blue line since I realised this was a possibility on 3rd November.

The recent flatline was due to illness and a weekend trip away (unrelated to the illness), don't plan on missing too many more days, though there are bound to be a couple of Xmas parties and Xmas day is probably out

1.jpg (http://www.cardschat.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=15161&d=1227224411)

I'll post an updated graph and number of VPPs as often as I can be bothered, pestering me may or may not work.

Happy guessing.

104732.

Don't even know what a VPP is or how you get them.

My guess is that you make the frantic push at the end of the year to get there but just barely, 100,380 VPPs. Congrats on SN.

Added link about VPPs to OP See how I stealthspam.

101250.

I'm assuming this was no coincedence and that you had this planned from the start of the year so that you need this many hands per day at the end, coz you sir are elite.

I didn't read whole guessing rules or figures or whatev coz the story was more interesting, ill just guess 100001 (binary ldo)

I was very happy with the 1337 target. Took amazing precision to rig that.

101599

btw, if on the last day you have falling short, put all of your 2008 winning into several 5k HU sngs

I'm gonna take my time with guessing but gl to you Irexes!

102311

play some 1/2 or 2/4 limit IMO

100914 with an 8-table frantic push on Dec 31st.

OK. There are multiple factors to be considered.

Firstly, it is Thanksgiving next week. Now, this may not be something that you normally celebrate, but it is like Christmas eating x 5. Again, you may be saying "WTF does this have to do with me?" Well.....Americans eat a lot at Thanksgiving - even more than normal. Lots of Americans play poker. When they eat too much and play poker they fall asleep. This will result in delays at the table while the clock counts them out - resulting in fewer hands per hour.

Christmas is a time for eating and drinking. There will be Christmas parties and we all know you can't hold your beer, so there will be hours and hours lost to drunken stupors.

It is also a very romantic time, and there is every chance that your wife will be feeling that bit more.....frisky. That will definitely result in fewer hands!

This will also result in you feeling an extra need to buy that extra special gift.....lots of extra shopping in ultra-expensive jewellery stores.....even more hands missed.

So, all-in-all this does not paint a pretty picture as far as super-duper status (or whatever you call it) is concerned......sorry Rex - we are looking at an end total of about 94,367 - but look on the bright side, you'll have one helluva Christmas!!!!

Good luck, my friend - I hope you make it!

96895

100201. Good luck!

100,020

Thanksgiving - you can just search for tables with no Americans on them

Christmas - you have already accounted for some missed time due to parties

Wife's needs - nothing wrong with seasonal quickies

Gifts - shop online between hands

You can do it!

100792

100,381

100,001 This reminds me of the price is right

100,032

This has already been guessed richyl2008 guess again.

Thanks for doing this Rex very generous of you, My guess is still to come.

100,000

Easy

oh you pessimist you

My guess is 100,258 ftw
Good luck!

Good luck rex, I'm also goin for Supernova this year. I need 26k more VPPs to get it. I'm planning on 12-tabling 100NL 6max for the rest of the month and then 16-tabling 200NL FR til i get it in december.

btw, my guess is 100,101

99,999 because frankly that would be hilarious (sorry).

100,666

99,998

Good luck!

I think that would cause 'Rex to commit hairy-cary. Supernova is 100,000 FPPs in a year. To miss it by 2 would be abomidable.

93,333

Ye but i would win $20

hmmmmm... ok Rex... you'll go supernova at the end of your session on Dec 22...cause you'll be at 99,978 and just "gut out" the remainder... you'll be so pleased (and tired) you'll "slack" a little so..... 105K would be within your reach, but your desire will wane...

On Dec 31: 104,157

97,524 <-- 9 out of 10 experts agree

93,286,,, thats my guess, just poped into my head,,, buck

101,535

Gl my over the canal friend !