Interesting Stats

#1 25th April 2008, 8:22 PM

I emailed fulltilt yesterday with a question I had. I've been keeping track of a lot of my hands lately and have realized that my stats are not matching up to the mathematical odds. I email fulltilt about this and this is what I got back:

Quote:

Hello Kyle,
Thank you for your e-mail.
As you suspect, we do in fact, get our fair share of emails from players who complain that the site is rigged or that something is off kilter.
Your complaint is one that is common, and one that as a player myself, I sympathize with because I've been there plenty of times. Lately it seems that I keep getting kings cracked by ace/x whenever stacks go in pre-flop.
I think that at least part of the problem with assessing close races such as the AT/KQ is that it is easy for the underdog to go on a significant run.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV

Ac Td 953955 55.71 751003 43.86 7346 0.43 0.559
Kh Qh 751003 43.86 953955 55.71 7346 0.43 0.441

Ac Ad 1403604 81.97 299878 17.51 8822 0.52 0.822
Qc Qd 299878 17.51 1403604 81.97 8822 0.52 0.178

There is about a 1.5% chance that the KQ will outdraw AT 5 times in a row. There is about a 0.015% chance that the Queens will outrun the aces 5 times in a row.

To put it in context, the chances of AT holding against KQ five times in a row is about 5.5%, and aces holding 5 times in a row is about 37%.

These are obviously the outlier scenarios, and most will fall somewhere in between. If you pay attention to the percentages though, you will notice that it is significantly easier for the KQ outdraws to show anomalous results when it comes to outdraws because it isn't that far behind. Also, if the expectation is that AT should win 55% of the time, it will take more trials (a larger sample size) before it becomes inevitable that AT will be ahead, than it would with the AA vs QQ scenario because the edge is so much smaller.

If there is anything I've missed or if you have any other concerns, please don't hesitate to contact us.
Regards,

Shujiro
Poker Specialist
Full Tilt Poker Support

I just found this to be a very surprising reply and though everyone should see it.

Good luck on the felt

#2 25th April 2008, 8:25 PM

Sorry for the statistics in the original email, I couldn't copy and paste it so it was eaiser to read. Hopefully everyone can still figure out what that all means, feel free to pm me if you don't understand anything

#3 25th April 2008, 8:47 PM

No offense, but I didn't find anything "interesting" in this article. All this stuff I knew long ago and you can pretty much guess if you didn't know it by now.

#4 25th April 2008, 8:56 PM

Over how many hands?

#5 26th April 2008, 2:29 AM

These are from the fulltilt archives, close to 1.5 million hands between only A10 vs KQ

#6 26th April 2008, 2:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iMaGiN.

No offense, but I didn't find anything "interesting" in this article. All this stuff I knew long ago and you can pretty much guess if you didn't know it by now.

Out of 40,000+ members here at Cardschat, I'd say that the majority are poker beginners. Therefore, you can count on most of the members who read this agreeing that it is "interesting".

I find the interesting part being the fact that it is coming from support at a poker site in an effort to educate one of its players. Good job, Full Tilt.

#7 27th April 2008, 2:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrSticker

Out of 40,000+ members here at Cardschat, I'd say that the majority are poker beginners. Therefore, you can count on most of the members who read this agreeing that it is "interesting".

I find the interesting part being the fact that it is coming from support at a poker site in an effort to educate one of its players. Good job, Full Tilt.

Yea I guess you're right. Like you said, I guess the only interesting thing is the fact that it's coming from the company, other than that, a lot of beginners I wouldn't be surprised, know that.

#8 27th April 2008, 4:07 AM

Its the fact that most poker players should know these stats exist. There are probably many members here at cardschat and all across the poker world who thinks online poker is rigged. This is just something that shows that its not and that the mathematical probabilites are correct on the poker sites.

#9 27th April 2008, 4:09 AM

I like that FT has a poker specialist replying to emails!!

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