If you draw one card from the deck, the card you want has a 2% chance of coming up?

#1 2nd May 2010, 6:28 AM

I just wanted to get something straight, if you wanted to figure out the chances of drawing the one card you want such as the ace of hearts, then you have a 2% (and a fraction) of that card being chosen, correct?

So if your holding a pair of aces, then chance of another ace coming on the flop is 12% (2 aces left)?

2 aces x 2% = 4% x the flop (3 cards) = 12%?

..so you also have a 20% chance of the ace coming up throughout the whole board? (5 cards x 4%?)

If I'm horribly wrong let me know, thanks!

#2 2nd May 2010, 8:50 AM

Technically, there are 50 cards remaining pf - so 2/50 chance of the first card being an A, if no A then there's a 2/49 chance of the second card being an A, if no A then there's a 2/48 chance of the third card being an A, 2/50+2/49+2/48 = .0400 + .0408 + .0416 = .1224. Extrapolate for the turn and river, the odds slightly improve as you remove a card from the deck.

So you're numbers aren't far off, but slightly understate the odds - for any practical purposes, though, you're correct.

#3 2nd May 2010, 9:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slycbnew

Technically, there are 50 cards remaining pf - so 2/50 chance of the first card being an A, if no A then there's a 2/49 chance of the second card being an A, if no A then there's a 2/48 chance of the third card being an A, 2/50+2/49+2/48 = .0400 + .0408 + .0416 = .1224. Extrapolate for the turn and river, the odds slightly improve as you remove a card from the deck.

So you're numbers aren't far off, but slightly understate the odds - for any practical purposes, though, you're correct.

Thanks.

#4 2nd May 2010, 10:18 AM

Very interesting thanks for the maths there

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