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  Poker - I HAVE A QUESTION?
 
  #1  
13-04-2008, 2:54 PM
johnny three thumbs
New Member
 
Location: midlands england
Plays at: party|full
Likes: holdem
Posts: 6
I HAVE A QUESTION?

i have been reading some of the strategy articles on the site and have a question related to some thing that popped up in a few of them.
the writers of articles mention that for instance that they might be holding say two suited and they know that one in three times they will hit a flush,does any one konw where i might find some info relating to this so i can get some guidance on knowing these sort of odds so i can avoid getting into trouble.
any help you can give would be gratefully received.
thank you,
johnny three thumbs.
 

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  #2  
13-04-2008, 4:30 PM
zachvac
Tenbob Curse Victim
 
Location: Cleveland, OH
Plays at: Pokerstars
Likes: NL Hold 'em
Posts: 5,408
1. Please make titles specific. In this instance mention something about odds.
2. No need for bold. Most of us can see ok and don't need bold to read and answer your question
3. The actual question:

I don't know of any one place that lists the odds and such but if you want to know a particular number you can google it such as "odds of hitting straight flush draw on turn or river" and I'm sure it'll give you a good answer.

But the best way is this general rule for quick calculations. Find out how many outs you have (cards that will improve your hand, 9 for the flush). If you're going to see one card, multiply it by 2 and add 1. If you're going to see both (you're pushed all-in on the turn or contemplating pushing all-in yourself) cards, multiply by 4 and add 2. These are extremely rough estimates but they're closed. It relies on the fact that you're dividing by 47 or 46 and the number without adding 1 or 2 gives dividing by 50. So let's do an example. How about an open-ended straight draw.

You have 4 cards in a row meaning that 8 cards will help you win. Now if it's the turn or flop with money behind, this is about 17% (8*2+1) or a little less than 20% which is 4 to 1. Meaning you need better than 4 to 1, probably something like 4.5 to 1 odds to call.

Alternatively if you want to know and it's after the fact (ie there's no timer) you can figure it out using math. On the flop there are 47 cards you haven't seen and on the turn there are 46. Let's use that example again. You have an OESD, 8 outs. There are 47 cards left in the deck and 8 help you. 8/47 = 0.17021 = 17.021%. Pretty damn close considering the first one was just an shortcut trick.

Now figuring out the odds of for example hitting certain hands with certain hole cards is a lot tougher, but as mentioned the google approach works for that and they are possible to figure out using statistics.
 



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