How often is it from the gut?

I was up against a pro, nervous as I can be in a 80,000 guaranteed pokerstars tourney. Went all in with Ad 10s with a strong feeling about it in my gut. Chip leader called with A,K. Flop showed 10, K, 10 can't remember the turn or river but didn't matter.

Afterwards he asked, "How'd you make that call?" and my reply was, "I felt it in my gut"

So my question is do I follow the gut or try to learn the odds involved? What do you do?

I am new but I have made it to paying position in about 50 percent of tournaments.

I think your final decision is always a gut feeling - well, nearly always.

If you know u r a big fav (i.e. AA preflop, u hold nut flush on river, etc, etc) then it is not going to be gut feeling - u know u r ahead.

Howeve, as poker is a game of incomplete information, you have to make that gut call IMO.

I`m sure others will disagree

You made a bet, not a call. Unless by "call" he meant "decision."

Your chip stack in relationship the blinds, and position are important to this. Shoving with A/T when you only have 7 big blinds is standard while shoving with 50 big blinds is suicide.

Shoving with A/T and a decent stack, anybody who calls you with an equal stack is going to crush you. You're looking at getting called by A/Js+ and hands like T/T+. Maybe a loose/tilty guy will call with 9/9 (because he's trusting his instinct), but in every other case you're only going to be at best 25% to win.

I have to admit though. Going with your gut works. In this case you can expect it to work about 1/4th of the time.

When it does work one give credits going with his gut.
When it does not work, one blames tilt or boredom for making an obviously bad decision.


That being said, going with your gut to snap off a bluff is a lot different. If his bets weren't making sense and maybe you subconsciously picked up some other click tell, then a call (or re-bluff) from the gut is ok. But relying on your gut with no information is just tying to get lucky.

I don't think I ever played a hand on a gut feeling certain cards were going to flop. I would just call that luck.

Depends what you mean. If your gut reaction is that he is weak and you have the best hand, go with it. If your gut reaction is "I think I'll hit this gutshot" then ignore it.

He made the call. Easy to play down AK preflop.

I've gotta agree. If its a gut feeling concerning the strength of your own hand, then give it some credence. But only if your gut feelings seem to pan out. If every time you think your ahead you find out your way behind, or its only 50/50, than learn pot odds well and play your cards completely by the book.

If however your gut feelings are about what will happen then you are essentially saying you have a feeling about what the future will be like... which unless you are a prophet isn't possible. You may be right occasionally, but thats blind luck, and you should never play poker based on blind luck.

Once your gonna play that way your better off playing something with better returns for your premonitions. After all you get a 32/1 payout in Roulette if it lands on your number.

By `gut feeling` I`m assuming we mean going with the information we have, not "I have a gut feeling the 10h will fall on the river"

So, for example, you have AA and the flop is K44 u get a raiser, the information is telling me he probably has not got a 4, so my gut feeling is reraise/ call.

I highly agree with Savage.Showing semi-small stacked with A 10 is not bad but doing it with a large stack is just horrible.The only callers you get will be from the players that are dominating you.This said you should also consider not racing if a player is un-able to double you up late in the tourney.I race fast adn furious early,first break.After that I play solid.By race I do not mean donking it up but I mean after raising with a nice hand like AK or AQ and faced with an allin I will call instantly.

The more you study, play, and learn the better your "gut" decisions will be. As far a feeling/knowing you cards will come so its ok to make a "less than" or an incorrect play. Right on if you can see the future I am trying to learn as much as I can so when I plan for the future I have the best opportunity to advance. It is ok to plan for the future just don't try to plan the outcome.

boom, this. selective memory/bias. your mind uses the hits as evidence to support what you want to believe and discount the misses in some other way because it doesn't support what you want to believe

i mean, you're essentially saying "i could feel that this RNG that uses thermal noise and mouse movements to spit out numbers that reach my screen in the form of graphical pictures was going to make my tens come" and it's pretty absurd. you "felt" you were going to hit other times too, but when you miss you quickly forget the feeling

Yep, and why?

Because the amount of times the miracle happens is miniscule to the amount of time it misses.

I think you have to be psyched to make that call. That is more luck than gut. Sometimes you get that gut feeling that the guy is bluffing. But before the flop, A 10 vs A K, your gut was wrong. You were betten untill that flop came out.

only if you are doing hella situps

I'll
Take my brain over your gut.

I play with a gutt felling about 25 percent of the time

I have gotten a lot better in observing players and their playing styles, so when these players do something outside of what they normally do, I stop and wonder what they are up to. This doesn't happen too often because at the stakes I play at (micro) players are really eratic. However once in a while you get a line on someone's play. At that point, I have to decide whether they have a better hand or bluffing. It's 50/50.