To know your "True Winrate" really takes a lot of time.
Take your BB/100
Standard Deviation BB/100
Number of Hands
With these you can find you "True Winrate Range" which is a normal distribution
Confidence Level just means how sure you can be that your true winrate is in the given distribution.
As an example, the person I saw describing this had:
Winrate: 6.5 BB/100
Confidence Level: 95%
Standard Deviation: 75 (You can find this in tracking software, he's HU so Std D is bigger)
# hands: 150,000
This gave the following numbers:
True Winrate range: 3.79 BB/100
Low Winrate 2.70
Hi Winrate 10.29
So there's a 95% chance that he wins anywhere from 2.7 to 10.3 BB/100. That's still fairly wide and this is after 150,000 hands!
Now let's take a look at how the number of hands played affects these numbers.
Adjusting # hands to 10,000 yields a true winrate range of 14.7, which is basically saying, there's no idea in this how well you're playing. You are just as likely to have a true winrate of -6.7BB/100 as +22.7BB/100 at this point.
Don't worry so much about what your BB/100 is. Just focus on playing well, and making good decisions, because variance is going to be there for quite some time.
Last edited by Mase31683 : 3rd July 2009 at 4:52 PM.