how long can a bad run last?

im currently going through a bad run on full tilt. i play nl .25/.50 and have been losing for the last week playing everyday for about 3-5 hours 2 tables. im a winning player and im feeling quite down from my last week of play. just seems nothing's going my way. everytime i get dealt aces im gettin no action and everytime i do it feels like im losing. perhaps even more frustrating is when i win a couple of big pots it feels as if im back to increasing my bankroll but sure enough i start losing again. down 300.00 in this week. just wondering how long one can expect to be losing, for the most part, consistently?

any input would be greatly appreciated.

Well since previous events are independent of future events, you have the same likelihood of having a cold run now as when your cold run started. The odds don't change and your odds of staying in the cold run first off depend on what you define a cold run (you admit you've had a few good hands that got you thinking you were out of it) and secondly luck. Each hand is an independent event. Cold runs are just patterns humans recognize in data. I would definitely look at how you've been playing during the cold run compared with how you've been playing during when you were winning and see if you were playing the same. You could be playing differently because of the bad run and that is causing it to continue. Basically there's no answer, because each event is independently random of the others. If you truly are a winning player, you will end up with a profit in the long term. Just concentrate on making the right plays, and you will find that over the long term your hands start to hold up and some days more will hold up than should and some days less will. This also applies to weeks, and even months depending on how much you play. Just concentrate on playing your game, definitely make sure you're not playing differently (or worse, if you made a positive adjustment that's one thing), and just keep on plugging away. Make sure you don't chase your losses, and move down if you need to.

til you are broke

I was going to say "one more hand" but I like your answer better.

If you're having a bad run, try taking a break. Spend a couple days learning about the game rather than playing it. Re-watch some training videos, re-read a poker book, etc. I find that hitting the table hungry (after a break) improves my results.

i'm a winning player who started with 50$ and and took that to over $1500 in under 6 months, so i don't think i'll be going broke anytime soon.

thanks for the idiot comment though

Dropping 3 bills a week, it could be sooner than you think.

If you were climbing steadily from 50 to 1k, and it took you six months, and you lost a third of your profity in a week.......well you do the math.

Welcome to the variance blues. They get everybody sometimes. Sometimes they're strictly short term, and sometimes they can last for weeks, or months.

Try a few things to shake your bad run; take a break, a little time away from the tables. Drop down and play lower stakes to get your confidence back. Try a different game altogether- sometimes going outside your comfort zone will increase your concentration and sharpen your outlook.

Hope some of this helps.

Asking for advice, and then trashinf the people who offer it ain't coll, or cute. In fact, kinda gives lie to your "winning poayer" assertion.

Like it's been said, bad runs happen to everyone once in a while. If it's affecting your game and making you tilt, I highly advise you to take a small break, maybe a week. Find something else to do on your free time instead of playing and bring your A-game when you decide to come back, I think that's the best thing you can do in these cases.

I've been on bad runs that have lasted weeks.... and have manifested themselves on all sites and even LIVE play!


One thing is for sure.... my bad runs on a site have never lasted longer than my bank roll

Just my 2 cents take it for what its worth. Technically you are a winning player but going from 50 to 1500 in under 6 months is a VERY good run of cards, idc what anyone says that takes a little bit of luck mixed with skill. However taking that into consideration I dont think under 6 months is enough for anyone to say they are a "winning player". I think the biggest thing is dont let your ego get in the way (and it looks like its already too late). Just because you went up from 50 to 1500 doesnt mean your gonna go up to 1500 to 4500. But like everyone else said, take a break, read some books, just remember not to get mad playing and keep your ego out of it.

FWIW, I've just come off a downswing, as most ppl have heard me moan about for the last month. It lasted around 20K hands or about 3 weeks and who knows I may still be on the downswing slope. Things have improved the last couple of days but I'm not taking anything for granted just yet. The problem with downswings, variance, or call it what you will, is that one thing leads to another. If the cards seem to be cold for a prolonged period of time, then that in turn can lead you into chasing things. Forcing the issue can compound the problem and results in tilt etc etc. IMO, a downswing is usually a combination of a lot of things, coolers, bad beats and particularly poor play. So what do you do? Well, taking a break is usually the main advice and do some studying (preferably poker study ). If you do continue to play let me tell you this. Losing buy ins becomes a deep rooted infection. If you do not have decent BRM and drop down stakes until you get your confidence back, then your roll will be totally dessimated, as there is no telling how long this run will last. You see with a downswing, in my experience, you lose your buy ins at twice the speed you won them at. So if you have won 20 buy ins over a couple of months or so, be prepared to lose them in a few weeks on a horrid d/swing. Just my 2pennies worth. GL and I hope things turn round for you soon.

it's roughly $8 per day. a decent player could do this while running average and it wouldn't be that difficult. probably even running slightly below average. they'd just have to put in the time

just saying it's not a foregone conclusion that he ran really well. he likely did, but it's more than possible he didn't

Well yea I was going with the assumption he ran very well considering the stakes he came (and of course applying good BRM principles ). I just think a lot of times our egos as poker players get in the way when we hit a good run and it seems to us that we are invincible and can/should not lose and I think thats what is happening to him in a way and it happens to all of us and I must say when you can keep your ego/emotions in check it helps so much and makes you a much better player, hell it helped me lol.

i played alot each day to get that bankroll where it is. i know i'm not a losing player and i'm not going to lose my whole bankroll. i'm just going through a bad run and was looking for advice and maybe some words of inspiration, which some of you kindly gave, thanks.

Im in a "cooler" period atm, my kings running into aces, sets owned by straights/runner flushes, etc etc.

Not much you can do, it sucks....