Help me understand odds - hand example

This is a $12 - 180 person - 20 table - MTT. This was the 5th hand of the tourney, no reads yet. I had taken down 1 pot with AK in the hole, when a K hit the board and I was folded to. So, not much action yet. Tell me how/if you would have proceeded and I will post the result later.

What I'm trying to learn on this: I've seen y'all talk about small PP and when you have odds, but y'all have talked about "pot odds" and player's "stack odds" for small PP... which would I use and would it be right to fold, call or raise here...

Well, the pot is 525 and it costs you 120 to call so you are getting 4.38:1 pot odds. This is a call, those are great odds. You don't want to raise though with this hand you have a hit it or quit it hand and you can stop the betting preflop by calling here. Also in the CO you have position on two out of 3 opponents and the buttons raise could be a positional raise.

the implied odds come in when you look at the remaing stacks of the players in the hand that will see the flop. Everyone that called the 150 have stacks over 1k so your implied odds could be huge here if you can double or even triple up if you catch a set and your opponents stack off with two pair etc.

I hope that all makes sense. That is just what I see looking at this, I am pretty weak player though so I am curious about the more experience players points of views

So Pretzel, Wing, and you limped before the button raised to 150, right? They then both just called so your 5s are probably best right now. You're definitely getting good implied odds to try to hit your set. Set mining is not something I do a lot of in tourneys, but here you're closing the action and have position on 2 of the 3 players. Call and hope for one of those A 5 10 rainbow flops.

yeah, you definately have position in the cut off, and as stated the pot is $525, which you only have to put in $120 to continue playing with. You are still early in the comp and can't wait for premium hands. This is the money building stage while the blinds are small. Better to risk a little now, than risk a lot later on. Remember when the blins go up and the pots get bigger people tend to ply for the money in the pot rather than the cards in their hands. People quote 75% luck and 25% skill, but one guy here hit the nail right on the head when he said the 25% skill was getting your logon, password and tourney start time correct.....lol

Sorry, forgot to post result...


As you read the results, think about the flop/turn/river and let me know how/if you would've played them (not knowing what was next)



pokerstars Game #15571503341: Tournament #78817993, $11+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2008/02/26 - 16:19:14 (ET)
Table '78817993 9' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: breukel (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: pretzel103 (1180 in chips)
Seat 3: ours1964 (1375 in chips)
Seat 4: castamal (1535 in chips)
Seat 5: WingGypsy (2820 in chips)
Seat 6: 09kKahneFan (1860 in chips)
Seat 7: pascie (1310 in chips)
Seat 8: SPARTE666 (1720 in chips)
Seat 9: JIMEURCHIPSS (1380 in chips)
SPARTE666: posts small blind 15
JIMEURCHIPSS: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 09kKahneFan [ ]
breukel: folds
pretzel103: calls 30
ours1964: folds
castamal: folds
WingGypsy: calls 30
09kKahneFan: calls 30
pascie: raises 120 to 150
SPARTE666 has timed out
SPARTE666: folds
SPARTE666 is sitting out
JIMEURCHIPSS: folds
pretzel103: calls 120
WingGypsy: calls 120
09kKahneFan: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
pretzel103: checks
WingGypsy: checks
09kKahneFan: (what would you do here?)
















pascie: bets 210
SPARTE666 has returned
pretzel103: folds
WingGypsy: calls 210
09kKahneFan: (depending on your flop action: what now?)













*** TURN *** [9s Th 3c]
WingGypsy: checks
09kKahneFan: (Did you stay this long? : what now?)
pascie: checks













*** RIVER *** [9s Th 3c Ks]
WingGypsy: bets 90
09kKahneFan: (had you stayed this long... now what?)
pascie: calls 90
*** SHOW DOWN ***
WingGypsy: shows [9c Qd] (a pair of Nines)
pascie: shows [Tc Ah] (a pair of Tens)
pascie collected 1125 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1125 | Rake 0
Board [9s Th 3c Ks 5d]
Seat 1: breukel folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: pretzel103 folded on the Flop
Seat 3: ours1964 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: castamal folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: WingGypsy showed [9c Qd] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 6: 09kKahneFan folded before Flop
Seat 7: pascie (button) showed [Tc Ah] and won (1125) with a pair of Tens
Seat 8: SPARTE666 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: JIMEURCHIPSS (big blind) folded before Flop

Check/Fold the flop, there are to many people in the hand to continue with a very weak pair in the hopes of catching on the turn/river. Just my thought it may be a weak play though, I play small pairs to hit trips or better. If you don't hit the flop I think you need to let it go.

I would fold.

At present, unless I am mistaken, u have got to put 120 into a pot of 525 getting about 4 1/2 to 1 so I agree with that.

However, the only way u can play your 55 after the flop is if you hit your set, and even then it is an `if`that your set will be best. Your odds of hitting the set on the flop are about 7:1 so, IMO, this is a fold - correct me if I have read this wrong - I`m not that clever reading through the format

So there

This is my first post in which I try to analyze odds so please correct me if I am wrong.

Basically with your low pp, you will amost certainly have to improve to a set to win. The implied odds of making that set are huge, so I think that it is worth it to see the flop.

At the flop you still only have a low pp, the odds of improving (you need 1 of the 2 remaining 5's) are 45 : 2 = 22.5 : 1 and you are getting nowhere near the correct pot odds at this point so I would then fold.

Does this line of reasoning seem correct?

phisig6057 said:

This is my first post in which I try to analyze odds so please correct me if I am wrong.

Basically with your low pp, you will amost certainly have to improve to a set to win. The implied odds of making that set are huge, so I think that it is worth it to see the flop.

At the flop you still only have a low pp, the odds of improving (you need 1 of the 2 remaining 5's) are 45 : 2 = 22.5 : 1 and you are getting nowhere near the correct pot odds at this point so I would then fold.

Does this line of reasoning seem correct?

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Yes. The question is not about implied odds, it is about pot odds.

When I said earlier I would fold, that is because of the pot odds question.

Having said that, I would fold anyway, because thats my style of play.

I don`t want to throw in more chips that even when If I hit my set I could still be behind - the probability is that all of the cards on the flop will be higher than 5, so who is to say u have not got ppl using your same mindset with say 66, 77, 88, 99, etc ?

I am not saying, however, that you have to play that way - other ppl would call for implied odds and some because some people could not fold a towel, let alone a pocket pair preflop

This is one of the reasons ppl leak chips in sng's and mtt's imo. You are getting great odds to call pf with 55, but what you have to consider is this. If you keep calling with small pp to hit a set in a rasied pot, then very soon you will be impoverished stack. We have a raise in front and 3 ppl call, then the odds are great yes. But if we do this 3-4 times and don't improve on the flop then we are leaking chips and our stack will soon be a push or fold stack. I think the key with small pp's in the early rounds of a sng or mtt is to open raise in late position with them, or just to limp to previous limpers when the blinds are low. Once the blinds are getting serious then we can't call with the smaller pp's we have to look to push or fold.

Jagsti said:

I think the key with small pp's in the early rounds of a sng or mtt is to open raise in late position with them, or just to limp to previous limpers when the blinds are low.

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Or throw them in the muck, knowing that lots of others will limp with any ace, any pair or any 2 nice looking cards (Jh9h looks nice !!!)

I will play small pp but only if I know I will not be reraised or in the latter stages of a tourny.

You definitely have better than the correct odds to call the preflop raise so that's what you must do here. Post flop, with a check-check in front and a flop what was unlikely to hit anyone, I think you should be throwing out a bet of at least 1/2 of the pot (closer to 3/4 is better because it gives all drawing hands the incorrect odds to call) because you may have the best hand but unless you bet for some info, you'll never know.

There are a few ways the hand can go from here:
1) Everyone folds: excellent result
2) Button folds and one or both early checkers call: not a bad result because you now have position on the hand and your aggression may induce another check on the turn and a free card.
3) Someone raises you: bad result, just fold.

If you do get callers and face a bet on the turn, you'll have to assume you're beat (at the moment), and use
pot/implied odds to determine whether calling is correct.
I agree with Tazwander, this the building stage for this type of MTT and, unless you're able to build a monster
stack, this is the stage where the stack to blinds ratio will probably be the highest giving you room to make
these plays.
I'm a fairly new player (1 year or so) and may be way out in left field here, so I'd like to hear what the more
experienced player think of this analysis.

marcogd, I`ll try to add my bit.

But first, check out my stats on official poker rankings . com. It is free to see what ppl have done over the past 120 days. I get ITM more than 20% of the MTT`s I play, so I guess I have an idea.

I have found that in the early stages of MTT a lot of ppl will call with very little.

So, looking at where we are in this hand.

Your holding, 55, preflop, will not be a fav here. If u were heads up in this situation the best u would be is a slight fav as anyone holding 2 over cards is about 50/50. With 3 others in the pot, they will all probably have overcards at worst, or a bigger pocket pair i.e. 66+ FOLD

So, now pot odds. The only way you can continue in this hand is if you hit your set on the flop, or a straight draw. The chances of that happening are around 7:1 - u r getting 4.5:1 to call. So, if you make this call ever time over time you will lose. FOLD

You are out of position. Out of 4 ppl u r 3rd to act, and the button has already raised showing strength, although it could simply be a button move. if u miss the flop, it is checked to you, u can`t raise, cause the button will reraise, probably. Position = FOLD

I also disagree with the fact u need to build a big stack early on. It has been brought up on this forum time and time again, it is rare that the early chip leader wins a tourny.

It is my opinion, online definatly, that playing very tight aggressive in the first hour or so is the way forward. Stay around average stack. Then, when the blinds and pots are worth chancing, try then.

From what I can see of the hand history, the OP is wanting to know if he should have been in the pot to catch his set. The simple answer is no. The fact he would have hit a set is irrelevant. IMO, it would have been bad play that got lucky

Ronaldadio said:

...From what I can see of the hand history, the OP is wanting to know if he should have been in the pot to catch his set.

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PF, not after the flop. As you can see, I folded PF, and I would've folded to the bet after the flop. As for reaching the river here, it would have probably had to have been a check or small raise situation to get there.

I knew this was a questionable hand for me as it appears to be for y'all as well. Great responses to far. Definitely a lot of different thoughts/opinions. Thanks!!

Thanks, Ronaldadio. I didn't even know that site existed. Congrats on your stats, those are impressive.

I like your analysis, and I suppose, in the absence of any reads on your opponents, you have to at least give the button credit for real strength and make the straight forward play and fold preflop.

However, if you only used expressed odds and ignored the implied odds in situations when the pot is not giving you > than 7:1 odds, you'd rarely be playing the low pocket pairs and would miss out on those opportunities when you do hit that set.

Please, feel free to tear my comments apart. I'm trying to learn how to play correctly.

marcogd said:

Thanks, Ronaldadio. I didn't even know that site existed. Congrats on your stats, those are impressive.

I like your analysis, and I suppose, in the absence of any reads on your opponents, you have to at least give the button credit for real strength and make the straight forward play and fold preflop.

However, if you only used expressed odds and ignored the implied odds in situations when the pot is not giving you > than 7:1 odds, you'd rarely be playing the low pocket pairs and would miss out on those opportunities when you do hit that set.

Please, feel free to tear my comments apart. I'm trying to learn how to play correctly.

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I`m not an expert. The great thing about poker is that ppl can play anyway they want - that suits me fine. However, the question was specifically pot odds, so in reality, he is getting 7:1 on a 4.5:1 shot, so no, he should not bet

Keep reading the posts here, most of the guys are knowlegable, good players, u will learn a lot - I did