Generic Tournament Question

lol. Well I still claim that if you have the bankroll to play in a game (which the WSOP ME would not qualify) that it is +$ev to take a 50/50 flip for stacks first hand of the tourney. Think about rebuys, that's exactly what an insta-rebuy does. If you play in the WSOP ME and take an instant flip, you basically are paying $20k for a double starting stack 50% of the time (other 50% it's as if you're not playing it, no -ev there since we counted 20k instead of 10k).

I'm not sure about whether cashing affects it, but I think the $ev of most good players is more than doubled with a double starting stack. And even of the bad players, may as well take every flip you can since in the long run you're less than average to cash/win.

Hmmm... are you sure about that? I would think there's just as likely that the those who folded threw A-rag and K-rag into the muck... From UTG, first hand, in a tourney like this, would you play A4os or K9 from UTG+1?

Well to be fair the question isn't "would you...", it's "would the average WSOP ME entrant...". I think there are a lot of people who would limp A4o from UTG. I've heard the fields are pretty damn soft for a 10k tourney.

When to take Coin-Flips

Posted this article a little while ago, goes along with what Zach is saying with simple graph..

I would say call and just suck it up, hoping to get deep into the tournament. All I know is that it would really suck and I couldn't imagine the feeling I would have if I saw an Ace or King hit the board...

At this stage surely its about Survival being greater than Chip accumulation?

In a Re-Buy or cash game - I'll call as you have the odds in your favour.

In the ME, you don't have the odds as you won't play this tournament 1000 times to come away better over the long run. This might be your one and only chance at it. You could fold every single SB and BB in the ME and make it to the second day and be nowhere near last place in chips. Surely, you will have the opportunity to pick up some pots here and there as well as getting the big hands.

It's an easy fold.. I'd show the whole table my cards, let them think I am weak as hell and when I re-raise them later on the will crap their pants!

At first I thought **** Tournaments but after reading a few post I have to fold also. Who doesn't want to play in the ME and who wants to go out on the first hand? Glad to see that so far most of the players here wouldn't want to gamble the first hand.

LOL @ open shoving all in first hand in the ME...call the guy an idiot and fold. nuff said

Definitely call. It doesn't make sense to give up an edge just because you think you'll get bigger edges later. Even if you do have bigger edges later, if you double up, you'll have bigger edges working on a larger number of chips OR you'll have big edges and not have your tournament at risk.

Example: You have 10K chips and you are faced with the QQ vs. AK scenario. You know for certain that 10 hands later, you will have an opportunity to get up to 20K in preflop as an 80% favorite (let's say your AA versus KK).

Expected Future Stack If Folding QQ = .8(20000) = 16000
Expected Future Stack If Calling QQ = .538 * .8(40000) = 17216

I would argue that tournament survival is not important at the beginning of a tournament. It's so far from the money, that it should play a lot like a cash game. I doubt there's a single one of you that would fold QQ in this spot in a cash game.

I'm considering this from the perspective of a pro who plays in the ME every year. If this is a big once-in-a-lifetime event, then I can see that it might be better to stay in the tournament and get your money's worth of the experience. From a pure dollar profit perspective, though, I think calling is the clear way to go.

P.S. - I checked the QQ vs. AK odds on Card Player, and it said it was 57% for the QQ. I used AK offsuit and I had the AK having none of the same suits as the QQ. Maybe that accounts for the difference.

See I don't subscribe to this strategy at all. The goal of a tournament is not to survive, it is to accumulate chips. You will have to double up several times just to make the money. Look at tournament structures and how top-heavy they are. You don't make money by cashing in tournaments, you make the money by hitting the big score. That doesn't happen by passing up small edges and valuing "survival".

On another note to other people who say they didn't come to the ME to bust out first hand, that's true but did you come to the ME to sit back and fold until you had to risk your 10 BBs with A5s? If you're talking about a money standpoint and maximizing chance of cashing you're probably right (and I've said I'd probably call, but obviously in the poll I picked **** tournaments ), but from simply a memory standpoint I'd much rather maximize my odds at a final table or win. After all that would be the big memory that would last a lifetime. Not to mention that in a tourney like this not only is the prize pool so top-heavy but the top gets even more money in terms of endorsements, so it's almost like there's more money at the FT/1st place.

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seen his A K first hand and had QQ i fold rite away, if i had A A i would call, buck
and if i have KK 1st. hand i fold too,after seeing his AK

I don't think you can look at it as because it is the ME and that nobody here is actually rolled to play in that big of a tournament, that you "shouldn't risk a flip". Now i have no idea what the structure of the ME is blinds wise, coz i've only watched a few episodes ever and never really follow it. So it is entirely possible that you will have better opportunities in the future to exploit your edge. But since this was titled "generic tournament question" i presume zach just used the ME as an example because ppl will take a decision more seriously when dealing with a $10 000 buy in in an prestigious tournament, rather than a $100 online buy in. You can still win good money in the eyes of ppl here by getting ITM at the ME because the buy in is so large, but when you start thinking in terms of winning $50 for playing 3 hrs in a $20 buy in, getting ITM doesn't seem so impressive. If guys can afford to spend $10k in the ME then winning $30k shouldn't be that big of a deal.

I really think the only point in playing MTTs is for the occasional chance to go deep and make alot. And in order to do that, you must run well. That means you absolutely must win your flips in key situations. If you play a style that is conducive to accumulating a huge stack when you run well then you have a chance to go deep. Sure lots of times you'll lose early, but profiting in MTTs isn't about winning 2x or 4x your buy in every few tournaments. Players who are going to play really weak tight and not be willing to take a chance, are never going to be able to fully exploit the very occasional situation where they run really well.

That isn't to say you should play spewy or stupid, but it is to say that you have to realise that there is a big luckbox element in MTTs and playing a style that will allow you to go extremely deep when you are that luckbox is never a bad thing (ie. Jamie Gold). And it also certainly isn't to say that you should be taking 45% "flips" to try and luck out and double up, but it is to say that if you are given a 55% edge then take it and if your hand doesn't hold then the tournament just wasn't to be.

But i'm approaching the question as if this just a regular tournament for which i was well rolled. Although a very good case could be made for folding this in the situation where you have a HUGE edge and are likely to encounter alot of better spots. Because, in such a situation, the degree of "luckboxness" required to go deep is substantially less so than in a tournament where your edge is alot smaller.

I call.


The hotels in Vegas are built on less than 3% +ev. Plus the cash games at the WSOP are lucrative enough, so if I bust I say good game, and add me to the 75-150 omaha 8 game please.

-Bill

Assuming I'm rolled for the tournament, and for the cash games that I'd go play instead if I busted, I subscribe to the Phil Ivey theorem and make the call. And besides, I'll have another shot at a million dollar payday in the WPT tournament in a few weeks.

If I'm not rolled though, say if I've won my seat in an online satellite or something, I hate to say it but I've probably gotta make the fold. I'm not gonna get another shot at a tournament like this any time soon and like others have said, the ME structure is such that I've got days to get my money in multiple times in better spots.

Obv snapcall with AA, and I probably couldn't bring myself to fold KK either.

Super easy. FOLD. At the beginning of a tourney you should not be risking your tourney life on a coin flip(Not that I haven't) . Read HOH. Unless your super-rich and don't care there is no reason to call, this is not a choice. FOLD.

What .... ???

No Cake ???????

No Bastard ??????

Is nothing sacred...

How much does "tournament life" pay? Is there money involved in having a tournament life? I'm curious as to where HoH says this because I have a hunch this is totally false or at least a context issue. This situation came from a Stox tournament pro who regularly plays these stakes and he argued that anyone who would fold has a horrible tournament mentality. I think the fact that he has no BR problems while most of us would be ecstatic with doubling our buy-in may have something to do with it. But I'm pretty sure for tourneys we're rolled for taking a flip first hand of the tourney is the absolutely correct play.

like i said before i suck at tournies, but in a fields as soft as the main event that is spanned over 7 days, surely you would be better of just crushing your table with your skills and building your stack that way, than taking the high variance double or nothing flips throughout tourny

Well from the math you are twice as likely as the average player to win the tourney if you take that small edge. Whether your skills could make up for more than that is one thing, but remember once you win the one double-up no longer are most flips for your tournament life. You can continue to outplay and even use the extra chips to your advantage to exploit the huge skill edge you have.

I agree, Zach.

However, the original question was whether we would do it specifically in the first hand of the WSOP ME, and that requires factoring in other considerations which may conflict with the pure mathematics of the hand.

Phil Helmuth famously said that Poker isn`t just a card game, it is a people game which happens to be played with cards. The OP question strikes to the heart of that distinction.

If we are asking about any unspecified tourney, it is a maths question. If we are asking about one very singular and special tourney, it is a people question.

It is justifiable to give different answers in the different cases and be "correct" in both, imo.

I would fold without a doubt to risky man there are 3 other kings and 3 other aces out there to be had. And with my luck 2 aces and a king would turn on the flop LOL!!!!!!!

I actually said
At this stage I do play different early in a live tourney that I would later on in the same tourney. Early on its about staying in and picking your spots. As the tournament ages I agree that it's all about Chip accumulation.

The ME is so deep stacked with regards to blinds. In my life I will probably play in it less than 5 times, if at all. I would not be wasting the opportunity on a coin flip.

If this was a $10 on-line event I would call instantly. I am bankrolled for that and there will be another one in 20 mins to play.

I still maintain that I will fold. And maybe I am old fashioned, I would still rather get my chips into the pot first and make the other guy make the decision! ...

I have a pretty decent edge, I call.

Do people here play Tournaments (freezouts) the same as they do Cash games?

I definitely have different styles of play for them. Try to play "By-The-Numbers" for ring games but find myself no-where near that for Tournaments,... Always mixing my play, but will happily lay down hands that I would never when I can just call on my BR to re-buy in a ring!

2 different games in my opinion. Like Rugby League and Rugby Union!

Fold.. too early in the tourney to risk a coin flip hand.

I'd call because I like living dangerously and I tend to get emotionally attached to hands if I know I have someone beat.

Agreed. I guess it's more that I brought up the second question as well, say it's a $5 mtt with 6k people (I'm assuming no one here would go crazy over losing $5 and is plenty rolled for it, and if not make it a $1 mtt, basically withing BRM).

So I've asked two questions here, the first one in the OP and this second one. I included "tourneys we're rolled for" in the part you quoted, so I was addressing the 2nd question.


Here's the thing though, I have still yet to see a logical argument why whether another tourney starting in 20 minutes matters in the slightest. Your first point is good, but I think you have general tournament strategy backwards. Early on it's all about chip accumulation while later on it's all about survival, picking good spots against the right stacks (to either try to induce a shove when you have a monster or leverage a fold putting as few chips in the middle as you can with a bad hand), and keeping the chip stack healthy. I just don't buy that the difference in tourneys and cash is that you can rebuy in cash. Whether it's the only tournament in the world you'll ever play or whether there are an infinite amount does not change the best strategy to maximize ev. Obviously in such a big tourney I agree maximizing ev may not be everything, but hopefully you see the point.


This is where I flat out disagree. Actually I think one of the big differences in tourneys is that so many people think like you are here. You have much more fold equity because people are scared, don't make the +ev call because they don't want to risk their tournament life, so it's easier to bluff at the later stages.

The difference between a tourney and ring game has nothing to do with whether you can rebuy or not, it has to do with not all your chips being worth the same. If you're on the bubble with a shortstack sometimes it's good to just fold to the money even if given a 60/40. On the other hand right after the bubble with a shortstack you'd probably be happy to get your money in a 60/40 dog just because doubling your chip stack will more than double your expectation in a tournament.

I guess the biggest reasons I started this thread was because it addresses the issues of what really is different about a tournament and ring. I think people who talk about survival or about how you can just rebuy in ring and can't in a tourney are wrong. This is just my opinion though, so if you disagree please use logic to convince me. I don't play many tournaments, and frankly pretty much hate them (that'll change when I win one though ), so I'm not claiming to be a tournament expert. I just think people take survival/not being able to rebuy as too much of a factor and assume without using any logic that survival is an inherent trait in tournaments that you must value.

The reason there's a difference between tournaments we're rolled for and a $10k buy-in where we got lucky in a satellite is because of utility. If I'm bankrolled for a tournament, this means that the entry fee is not of huge importance to me and by extension, making the money is not of huge importance to me. In a tournament I'm rolled for, the final table is what I'm eyeing, not one-past-the-bubble.

In a 10k event that I paid $20 to get to, however, chances are making it just into the money means a whole lot of money to me. And then it's a matter of utility. Perhaps the minimum payout (12k?) would make such a big difference in my life that I'm not willing to give it up 47% of the time, even if the chance for a huge payday goes up a lot. It's like rejecting a coinflip for $1,000,000 and instead taking $250k cash; makes sense for almost anyone on this planet, but Bill Gates might afford to take the +EV line.

Hmmm, I'd have to say instacall. If I won the flip & doubled up I would probably only play premium hands for the rest of the day and try to cruise into day 2 with my big stack intact. If I lost, I'd just go hit the cash tables and try to make my 10k buy-in back (or as much of it as I could).

I understand peoples argument that it's the WSOP ME and nobody wants to go out on the first hand, but I can't see playing scared just because of the larger buy-in/infrequency of the tourney.

If you voted to fold here, why did you even bother to look at your cards?

It would be a terrible thing to go broke on the first hand of the ME, granted, but WTF are you doing there? If you just want to be in the midst of that action, get a job there! Be the waitress, or the bus boy for gawds sake.

So, you're there to compete. You're up against somebody who is running in mismatched shoes against you in a very nice set of running shoes. It's a race and he has given you a head start!

Zac - its great to listen to everyone's points of views and I am enjoying this thread.

Personally I play more live tournaments than anything else. I love the local casino. I don't even play on-line that much anymore and I very rarely play the cash game at the casino but I do ok there.

OK - Why do I think Tournaments and Rings are different.

Lets take the OP hand - QQ vs a shown AK.
Ring game - you are a fav (57% - 43% I think?) and If I had that to play this hand over and over again for the rest of time I would love it. You can't lose in the long run.

Tournament - your 57% is just for that one hand. I strongly believe that you can't play the same in this situation. Its a case of all or bust. You win or you completely lose, its your tournament life up for grabs. You don't have the chance to play the hand over and over again to take your odds over time. I play a lot of live Tournaments (not the bigs ones yet.. ) and I would rather win as many pots without going to showdown as I can. I hate the whole luck or odds part of the game. I would rather stare someone in the eyes and make them fold. I just feel that in this situation, the opening hand of a tournament (which i try so hard never to play as people always want to play the first hand... it's a donkfest) - you will have better spots later and you can win the game by playing people, not the cards.

I don't know if this makes sense but why take the risk. There are times and places to do it. But I've said it before, I'd rather get all my chips in and force the decision than have to make one like this.

I would say call. You are a favourite in the hand and you will need to win alot of coin flips to win the tourney. May as well start now. Even if you lose you can still say you got your money in with the best hand.

fold imo...its to much of a risk for the first hand. I would rather to know that i folded am still in than call all in and lose on the first hand. And know that i blew $10k in one hand....

Quote from Zach;

'Early on it's all about chip accumulation while later on it's all about survival' suggesting someone had it backwards.

While both these factors play in all tourneys, are you going to come right out swinging aggressively in the first hand, or first orbit without any read on either the flow of the table in general, or the people in particular?

There is a period at the very start of tourneys, that is a no mans land. Many folks are feeling lucky, others are impatient, and of course there are the drunks. These are not who I want to be flipping with in the first few orbits. Certainly with speculative cards that we all will play later in the tourney. In your first question you gave specifics that bypass these normal concerns for more respectable players and added in the ME factor.

IMO, under these circimstances, the call is necessary. You have the edge, and isolation and the rest of the world is blocked out from that moment in time. Defining moment for the rest of the tourney.

Caveat is that had villain not shown his cards, I would be less inclined to call this bet here!

Well if he is clearly showing the AK and I look down at QQ, I would call, even at the ME. If he just shoved and I look at qq and dont know his cards its a pretty easy fold lol as there is risk of domination.

If you want to win, you need to be willing to gamble. Sure the blinds are low and the structure is sooo good, but the benefit of having a bigger stack early on to bully the noobs and collecting dead money is very nice.

Id go for it, no question really its a matter of do you want to try to win? Do you want the edge for the 1st day? If you are trying to survive who knows, maybe you will go card dead for 8 hours and end up shoving with AQ with 6k left and lose to AK and oh wowz you are out anyway! If you win you have 12k chips, sick life.

The two main factors on this choice is your bankroll, and how willing you are to accumulate chips early on and gamble in marginal situations.