Gaining too much confidence

#1 20th April 2010, 6:41 PM

Since there is a good thread going about dealing with the loss of confidence, I thought this would be an interesting topic to discuss. I think gaining too much confidence can be a more difficult problem since it can be harder to identify and people want to attribute results with there superior play versus luck.

So how do you try to keep your game in perspective without overrating your ability?

(realize the EV line is an obvious tool, but what else?)

#2 20th April 2010, 6:42 PM

My PT stats tell me when I'm getting out of line.

#3 20th April 2010, 6:55 PM

Luckily a lot of fish are overconfident or poker would be that much harder. Just today I had some self-proclaimed semi-pro challenge me to a HU game in a tourney, unfortunately my BR didn't allow it. I mean you know you've hit gold when the fish is asking for a rematch.
Still it's much easier to win against someone with a loss of confidence because they don't have the insanity needed to throw in some weird bluffs.

Edit: since my post doesn't answer the OP here I go. If you're a losing player being overconfident can turn you into an ATM, if you're a good player you'll realise soon enough that you're making some serious mistakes

#4 20th April 2010, 6:55 PM

That's true. Perhaps I'm overthinking it.

(Meant to quote Kyle. I just think it's a problem that isn't easy to self diagnos since deep down no one really wants to admit they are worse than they think. Obv a large sample of hands to review certainly helps keep things in perspective.)

#5 20th April 2010, 6:57 PM

I don't think there is such a thing as over confidence in poker.

I'm always confident that I will win!

But I don't always win - does that make me over confident?

#6 20th April 2010, 7:02 PM

If you get to confident you will play higher stakes because you think you can beat that stake when you can't

#7 20th April 2010, 7:03 PM

But that's not confidence - that's poor br management....

#8 20th April 2010, 7:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlantafalcons0

But that's not confidence - that's poor br management....

Okay you got me. Maybe over confident players will try playing more tables. More then they can cope with

#9 20th April 2010, 7:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomh7795

Okay you got me. Maybe over confident players will try playing more tables. More then they can cope with

Over confident players may think that they are better than other players.

"I can play every hand at this table because these players suck"

LOL

#10 20th April 2010, 8:09 PM

Overconfidence leads to tilt when your results aren't matching your ego, and it leads to fancy play syndrome when you are running bad and start trying to buy pots you can't buy.

#11 21st April 2010, 12:01 AM

i believe i have been overconfident as well as i lost my confidence. but, the more i play i get more and more focused on playing better poker, regardless of what happens in a particular session. especially in microstakes people fail to realize the skill others have, even here most people believe that 2nl is full of fish, when the truth is there are plenty of regs at 2nl and 5 nl. so before i go anywhere near 10nl i want to know how these regs win at a better rate than me, i try to analize their game so i can improve mine.

#12 21st April 2010, 1:52 AM

I think that overconfidence is almost as bad as lack of confidence.

When everything is going right and you let yourself get overconfident, you may be setting yourself up for a psychological setback.

I think you have to be realistic about your good runs. Are they a result of your superior skill, knowledge and ability to outplay your opponents?

If not, which is likely unless you're one hell of a player, a long downturn may really affect you.

Be confident, play well, but don't let that confidence lead to over expectations that you cannot meet on a continual basis.

#13 21st April 2010, 2:43 AM

Over confidence leads to a big ego which in turn leads to tilt.

Tilt is not just a term for when you are frustrated and play badly because you just lost your stack with AA for the third time in a row. Tilt is any deviation from your normal style of play.

I think that the majority of people that make prop bets are very overconfident at the time and people will bet a lot of money against them because they know this and know that once the person starts hitting downswings it will crush them, forcing them to give up the bet...

#14 21st April 2010, 11:28 PM

The following is an excerpt about a psychological bias which is a common human attribute. Whenever I hear people talk about their poker confidence and whine about how they never win because of “bad luck” this is what I think about. It is rare to see people say I lost because I made a bad move... always “bad luck” or an “outside factor beyond their control”.

A self-serving bias occurs when people attribute their successes to internal or personal factors but attribute their failures to situational factors beyond their control. The self-serving bias can be seen in the common human tendency to take credit for success but to deny responsibility for failure.[1] It may also manifest itself as a tendency for people to evaluate ambiguous information in a way that is beneficial to their interests. Self-serving bias may be associated with the better-than-average effect, in which the individual is biased to believe that he or she typically performs better than the average person in areas important to their self esteem.

Stix

#15 23rd April 2010, 4:22 AM

I don't think there are very many situations where overconfidence can be a problem. The only way I see it being a problem is if it leads to misjudgments of the game situation in terms of ev and implied odds.

#16 23rd April 2010, 7:27 AM

Overconfidence made me throw away a live tourney that I had a real shot at winning. Had a huge stack and called it all off with TPTK vs the chip leader because I was so confident that the guy was bluffing me... he wasn't, he flopped middle set and I couldn't catch up on the turn or river. But then with no confidence you can't play good poker. You need to trust your reads sometimes. I should have given a little more respect to the all in shove in my situation, but I wouldn't have built my stack to the size it was had I not been confident enough to make c-bets, river bluffs and thin calls. It's a fairly delicate balancing act I guess

#17 23rd April 2010, 7:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ats777

That's true. Perhaps I'm overthinking it.

(Meant to quote Kyle. I just think it's a problem that isn't easy to self diagnos since deep down no one really wants to admit they are worse than they think. Obv a large sample of hands to review certainly helps keep things in perspective.)

Good point, and I think among a large number of recreational players (maybe a lot of serious players too?) very epidemic. You see it often, as an example, with the insults thrown by a player who gets sucked out, when the winner of the suck out had the right odd to make his call, and won that 1 in 10 pot which was why he/she made the call in the first place, and had the loser i.e. sucked out player made his bet correctly, the pot odds would not have been enticing the suck out player to call/raise. Then the pot loser, who had the best hand on the flop/turn, but played it wrong calls the pot winner a donk or whatever, when the correct play by said player could have caused a fold instead of a call/raise. This is an example of someone who cant admit his play was wrong, and blames the other players/site/fate/dog/weather for his "bad luck".
The suck out player had the confidence to play the odds, the sucked out player didnt have the confidence or the knowledge to raise enough to make drawing too expensive.

I think confidence is undeniably important, but it must be combined with the ability to say "man did I play bad there" when you did.

No, is not always easy to self diagnose honestly, but vital too playing a winning game.
And defining between confidence and loose playing is also important....

uhhh just read my own post, I am rambling on a bit here, hope my point is clear tho, havent had my coffee yet.......... water boiling, I am confident I will make more sense later.......lol

#18 23rd April 2010, 8:12 AM

you guys are all a glass is half empty to me i see it like under confidence is the big bad monster called fear which leads to people under playing pots and hands with a good% to hit agent the ev but over confidence can still lead to a big bet or high buy in that you can still end up winning even tho thinking of thinking this way may lead you to betting all your bankroll lol
i guess all im saying is there are pros as well as cons to being over confident

#19 24th April 2010, 2:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KyleJRM

Overconfidence leads to tilt when your results aren't matching your ego, and it leads to fancy play syndrome when you are running bad and start trying to buy pots you can't buy.

I agree. I think FPS is a common sign you're getting over-confident, especially in the middle of a session.

Quote:

Originally Posted by fletchdad

Good point, and I think among a large number of recreational players (maybe a lot of serious players too?) very epidemic. You see it often, as an example, with the insults thrown by a player who gets sucked out, when the winner of the suck out had the right odd to make his call, and won that 1 in 10 pot which was why he/she made the call in the first place, and had the loser i.e. sucked out player made his bet correctly, the pot odds would not have been enticing the suck out player to call/raise. Then the pot loser, who had the best hand on the flop/turn, but played it wrong calls the pot winner a donk or whatever, when the correct play by said player could have caused a fold instead of a call/raise. This is an example of someone who cant admit his play was wrong, and blames the other players/site/fate/dog/weather for his "bad luck".
The suck out player had the confidence to play the odds, the sucked out player didnt have the confidence or the knowledge to raise enough to make drawing too expensive.

I think confidence is undeniably important, but it must be combined with the ability to say "man did I play bad there" when you did.

No, is not always easy to self diagnose honestly, but vital too playing a winning game.
And defining between confidence and loose playing is also important....

uhhh just read my own post, I am rambling on a bit here, hope my point is clear tho, havent had my coffee yet.......... water boiling, I am confident I will make more sense later.......lol

Makes sense. Always makes me chuckle when a guy with stats of 50/4 is giving advice or complaining about some other donk.

Here's another example I thought of related to the dangers of over-confidence. You've been running good and you get lazy about session review, or taking notes, or studying. Perhaps, you think you're making such good decisions that you can relax and have a couple beers while you play. Essentially, you're letting your guard down and getting complacent instead of continuously trying to improve. Granted, this is going to be an issue mainly for winning players. For losing players, I think the more common scenario is for them to overrate their abilities to begin with and blame their losses on luck....which is fine with me.

Hope this makes sense...

#20 24th April 2010, 2:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ats777

I agree. I think FPS is a common sign you're getting over-confident, especially in the middle of a session.

Makes sense. Always makes me chuckle when a guy with stats of 50/4 is giving advice or complaining about some other donk.

Here's another example I thought of related to the dangers of over-confidence. You've been running good and you get lazy about session review, or taking notes, or studying. Perhaps, you think you're making such good decisions that you can relax and have a couple beers while you play. Essentially, you're letting your guard down and getting complacent instead of continuously trying to improve. Granted, this is going to be an issue mainly for winning players. For losing players, I think the more common scenario is for them to overrate their abilities to begin with and blame their losses on luck....which is fine with me.

Hope this makes sense...

Here is a thread that may interest you...

http://www.cardschat.com/f4/official...6/index30.html

There was another thread, which I cant find now, where people were seriously (as opposed the the the read I posted) discussing alcohol and its effect on playing. There were pros and cons, it was interesting to read, if any one knows it, plz post. For me, one, maybe 2 beers can (often, but sadly, not always) give you that confidence buzz, and the courage I must have when making a major move with out changing my decision. At that point, I am not drunk, just a bit buzzed, so I still see the correct play as I would w/o any alcohol, but when you have to make that move, but its risky, and I can be passive where I shouldnt be. There are so many plays where you need to aggress and push. But maybe then am able to say - hey, its the right move - and go for it. The major problem for me is, a beer makes a new man out of me, but then that new man wants a beer, which makes a new man out of him, who wants a beer...... and on it goes. So I tend to not drink at all, maybe crack one at the final table. When I do make the mistake of playing after drinking (it always seems like such a good idea at the time....) then hope your at a table with me, I can be profitable......

#21 24th April 2010, 4:14 PM

I just want to add that like all things in poker it depends on the situation. IMDO in a tourney a healthy dose of fear can help you survive and not make unnecessary loose calls and in ring games you can use more confidence to help control the action at the table.

#22 24th April 2010, 9:24 PM

You have to be confident, but over confidence leads to donk moves.
Of course when you are a big stack, you are suppose to force people to make the decision to play their hand or not. Also being short stacked leads to making moves that you would not normally do. So the real question is when someone makes a donk move - all in preflop with 72 suited and hits the flush. Was that due to confidence, luck, or desparation!

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