Forgive me if I ask a stupid question

#1 13th April 2008, 6:37 PM

I believe that generally speaking large gambling concerns don't cheat their customers. Whether that be internet, casinos or even bookies.
I think it would be stupid.
My question:
It's not hard to notice that internet hands are on average better than
live game hands. There is no doubt in my mind.

In a 6 man holdem table there are just over 650k possible 5 card board combinations after subtracting the 12 pocket cards.

Is it possible that they write these computer programs so that, let's say
they randomly remove 150k of the bottom 300k boards to make it more exciting?

If it's ramdon, you could argue it's fairness.

Seems to me tho, that if you don't think the hands are better, you haven't played that many live games.

Just in my last 4 hours of play at a six man holdem game, I have hit 3
4 of a kinds and seen at least 2 others.

Any takers?

#2 13th April 2008, 6:46 PM

It's not actually a stupid question, it's just that it is asked so many times at forums like this that it becomes somewhat tiresome. Online we see far more hands in an hour than we see live, especially if we are multi-tabling. You might be interested to take a look at this thread:

http://www.cardschat.com/f13/online-...8/index16.html

#3 13th April 2008, 6:53 PM

What are we taking??

You're wrong. You'll never be convinced of this but you are. I play live at least 7 hours a week and I play online about 15 hours/week 4 tables at a time. In an average hour live I'll see MAYBE 30 hands. In an average hour online 60. So in 1 hour online I see more hands than in 7 hours live. Do I see more "big" hands online? Yes, because I see so many more hands. Does saying you had hand xxxx so many times in an hour/day/year mean anything? No, not unless you like to assign order to randomness.

You'll find some (many?) who agree with you. Just search "rigged" to find them.

#4 13th April 2008, 6:54 PM

I don't play 6-handed tables, so I can't address THAT comparison directly, but as a general rule the hands I see online are no different that what I see live. This is based on having played live since '69.

What I do notice is that more hands go to showdown than they do live. That increases the likelihood of more sukouts and strange races.

Your profile says you prefer Stars for online play, so I have to guess you encountered these quads on Stars. I wouldn't expect this very often. I'm no math wizard, but there 'could' be the possibility that a 6-handed table might see a slightly different card distribution than a 9 or 10 seater, partly due to the number of cards dealt in the hole cards. 12 vs 18 vs 20.

As to programming, if you read Stars security pages, they claim to set the entire deck before the first card is dealt, regardless of the game or seating. That shuffle and set of the deck is from the full 52 cards. According to Stars, nothing anyone does will change the order of the deal. Unlike sites that pull cards 'on demand', no amount of click delay, thermal noise, number of mouse clicks nor the number of times you throw you mouse across the room will change your next card.

Next time, post the HH's and we'll take a look. If it's happening, it's ALL in the HH.

#5 13th April 2008, 6:58 PM

BTW - bunchdog. You said this was 6-handed. Do you play any of the MTT's or SnG's on Stars . ??

#6 13th April 2008, 7:44 PM

I have the opinion that it is the sheer number of hands people play online vice the number they see live accounts for the difference. I think you may also want top consider the level of competition you play against. It is likely that you will less of those bottom hands with playing against better players.

#7 13th April 2008, 7:56 PM

I would have to go along with the 'many hands' theory too. I was at a casino where inside of a half an hour there were 2 sets of quads dealt. Fortunately one set was mine.

#8 13th April 2008, 11:30 PM

Thanks for the response. This is my first day here and I meant to say in my original question that I would guess that you guys have discussed this ad nauseum. I forgot that line.

Let me say this to Nevada and Hillbilly.

I realize the more hands thing. Realized it going in. I guess you're right.
But no matter what is done to the deck prior to dealing, my wild theory is
when the cards are already dealt, then the change comes. I know it's wild.
It can be done. What you addressed about what does or does not happen before the deal actually says nothing to address what could be done after the deal, that is unless you word your interpretation of Stars disclaimer differently. And Hillbilly, I have changed my mind over the years more than once. I didn't mean to come across like it's got to be this way. I've defended truth against gamblers' myths for years. I was just throwing out a wild theory. I also understand that one 4 hour stretch means nothing. I understand well the general principal of random and probability.

#9 14th April 2008, 2:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bunchdog

I realize the more hands thing. Realized it going in. I guess you're right.
But no matter what is done to the deck prior to dealing, my wild theory is
when the cards are already dealt, then the change comes. I know it's wild.
It can be done. What you addressed about what does or does not happen before the deal actually says nothing to address what could be done after the deal, that is unless you word your interpretation of Stars disclaimer differently.

Nothing to 'interpret'. Stars makes their shuffle and deal quite clear. The order of the 52 card deck is set before the first card is dealt. No matter how many stay in the hand or fold, the cards will deal in the order they were set.

In other words, the 3 community cards will never change based on what or how the hole cards come out. The turn card will never change based on bets or folds on the flop, etc. The ENTIRE deck is set, just like it is in live play. The only minor diff is that there is no burn card online. No need for one.

#10 14th April 2008, 12:44 PM

Just consider yourself lucky... in my last 10k hands I only got 4 of a kind twice

#11 14th April 2008, 4:30 PM

From here (http://www.cardschat.com/f46/any-point-playing-online-75149/):

Quote:

Originally Posted by martin_macd

Heres some evidence: Ive now got 110,000 cash game hands and 180,000+ tourny hands stored in an SQL database populated by screen scraping tools (I know I know, I REALLY should get out more) and with this size of data you would be able to notice if there was a variance outside statistically rational variance.

These figures are all based (the statistical column) on information that is properly calculated by other math type bods whom choose to do a PHD instead of actually playing, like me (not that I could have done the other route!).

Unlike other peoples posts, you can check these easily online:

ENDING --------------ACTUAL------------ MY POKEROFFICE
HAND ---------------STATISCAL ---------STAT BOOK
--------------------PROBABILITY--------------------------

1 Pair--------------- 0.4225 ---------------0.42246
trips ---------------0.021128 ---------------0.02122
quads --------------0.00024 ----------------0.00024
straight ------------0.00392 ----------------0.00396
flush ---------------0.00196 -----------------0.00197

Now to quantify my data, they come from sites listed in this order *from most to least*

pokerstars (48.2%)
prima network (21.3%)
party (12.8%)
b2b network (8.6%) (couldnt resist, "costa....oker" )

the rest of the play is split up fairly evenly between another dozen sites.

Now, as for statistical variance between sites, this is something that I will have to spend some time analysing, but after quickly kicking out some figures into excel the variance between the 4 mentioned above is under 0.02% - and to be honest this is probably down to the "relative" lack of hands played at b2b so far.

Anyway - thats my tuppence, so if people persist on feeling that games are rigged, they are welcome to not play. As for growth in home games, I support and truly value this "grass roots" poker, and long may it go on.

ps/ figures gathered between 2004/10 & 2006/11

#12 15th April 2008, 1:03 AM

OK
You've made a believer out of me.
Those stats are pretty convincing.
Nick, you said more in your second post.
Your first post made no mention of the cards not
changing after they're originally set.

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