Face the Ace: Could the amateurs have the advantage

I've been thinking about this all day. I think a talanted amatuer, who got through all that qualifying, and who regularly watches Poker After Dark, should be a favorite over those pros. Mainly because he's seen hours and hours of them playing on TV, and they don't know squat about him. But also because the amateur has to be hard to get any tells from. The amateur is going to be scared and nervous just from being in that situation, and that's the only read you can get from him. All-in with AK or AA or 68, he's going to be just as scared just to be on TV playing for all that money. Plus, the pros playing for charity, are likely to not be playing at the same level as if they had money on the line.

I will admit, that if a guy is going for a third win, and the pros have seen him play twice - and the initial nervousness of the situation has died down - maybe the pros would be at an advantage. But I really think that in the first match, the amateur should be a significant favorite to win; and a slight favorite in the second match.

I think, if they used low-level pros, who you don't see on TV, the pros would cream the amateurs. But, as long as it's the big-name FTilt pros who we see all the time, the amateurs are going to get the best of it.

From a promotional standpoint, FTilt and pro players probably stand to gain more, the better the amateurs do. If the amateurs do well on TV, that advertises the idea that talented amateurs can win on FTilt or in Vegas; and increases the money to be made by FTilt as a site, and pro players in general. It's not as if it costs FTilt $1 million if the amateur wins and gets paid, because they have sold alot of the advertising to recoup some of that, and they are getting more play on the site from advertising in Prime Time. I'm not going to say that the pros are motivated to roll over and throw the matches, because that's more profitable in the long run - but I will say that has to be a possibility to consider. I'm curious to know if there is a Vegas line on these matches. If there is not, that might be an indicator that the pros are not really trying to win.

Im think the amateur players are so dangerous for the pros. Because they doesn´t know how they really play, they are different than the regular pros. I hear some pro players saying the same, I really don´t know how play with amateur players.

yeah i have heard that too. I gotta give the edge to an amateur that had the talent to get through all of the qualifying rounds.

I don't think the amateurs have a edge, but I think they have more of a chance than many think.

Also think I spotted a leak in the pros game, where they maybe bluffing too much against the bad players. I have seen this kind of leak before from better players, but its impossible to confirm with the low amount of hands shown.

Getting through a freeroll != good and it's doubtful that any pro has a glaring tell. Even if some savant managed to get on the show, any advantage they might have would be nullified by the show's structure which I hear is super-fast with shallow stacks.

There's one tourney you have to play to win a shot on the show, you can skip the freerolls (a 2500 FTP qualifier and finish top 10 get to audition). None of the amateurs played exceptional poker, there wasn't even much poker played. The pros played extremely soft (I wish if I had to decide to call an all-in with $40,000 at stake the guy offered to show me a card before I decided to call his all-in). Even after he made the right decision, he still almost lost if he didn't hit his diamond on the river. I bet the third pro plays much tougher with 1 million at stake and the guy loses.

The lucky players have be lucky dealt hole cards. The entire concept of how to play these pros are completely out the window. They're basically playing the cards and the board in front of them. The only true advantage I see is the luck of the deal.

Guess I will watch some tapes of Phil Ivey then go to Vegas & take all his money, cause he don't know jack about me. huh?

lol at thinking people have an edge over ivey if he hasnt seen them play. Although i would like my odds against howard lederer tbh

The pros doesnt have anything on the line only the amateurs winning or not winning money.

There may be a more annoying person than Hansons opponent, but I have never seen one.

ugh... I know, Drove me mad. The guy on before was quite funny and looked proper gutted when he lost ah well thats the risk he took i guess.

Ya, FTP probably had to pay a guy to suicide-watch the truckdriver.

The network wants the amatures to win, it's great for the ratings.

rofl nope. The ratings are terrible either way. :P

Agree............think the game is changing plus am's can give a pro a run for the big bucks