Double or Nothing Sit N Gos: Not Worth It

#1 1st November 2009, 12:16 AM

So, cardschat regulars:

I don't think the NL double or nothing SnG's are worth it, and here's why.

The bubble takes about as long on these SnG's as it does for regular SnG's -- eliminate five people for regular ones, four people for DoN. That means that the blinds are going to be at about the same place, assuming players of similar skill levels, which is now pretty much the case.

For you as a player, if you are going to win the SnG, you either win it because you have a huge stack (let's say 3x the starting stack), or because somebody gets eliminated ahead of you, even though you are also starting to get decimated by the blinds.

In the first instance, you would really rather be in a normal Sit-N-Go, because you have the potential to get 1st or 2nd place. First place pays 250% of DoN, second place 150%.

In the second instance, when you are one of the people threatened with elimination, you will often have to go all-in and you may very well get called in a coin flip situation or worse. For example, if you have AQ, you have to shove, and you may find yourself up against AK. Of course, same goes for any pair less than KK.

If you win that shove, you have made the money (congratulations!) but you now have a medium-big stack that can't compete for still larger sums of money.

So here's the math:

Let's say you play six $10 Sit N Gos and win or cash in four of them. If you play DoN, you've made $18.40.

If you can accomplish the same feat in a regular SnG, then let's say three of those times that you cash you get 3rd, for a total (net) profit of $21. Then of course, you lose two, for a total loss of $1. If you get 2nd or 1st in the other game where you cash, you are significantly ahead of DoN, by at least $7.60 -- almost 50%!

Now, of course, you might argue that it's harder to get any prize money at all in a regular sit n go, but I disagree. The problem with DoN is that it's so passive/collusive that if you are the short stack on the bubble, everyone will collude against you, plus you won't get called by medium stacks when you have a great hand. They might call in a regular SnG because they also need to build their stacks.

What do you think?

Best,

Neo Wiggin

#2 1st November 2009, 12:55 AM

i think they suck

its not proper poker

#3 1st November 2009, 1:02 AM

Thet are not worth the time and effort , same goes for HU sngs. I would rather play 9 man.

#4 1st November 2009, 4:49 AM

DoN are a waste of time. If ur gonna play in a SnG then u wanna play for 1st which is a better return than any DoN.

#5 1st November 2009, 5:55 AM

I used to play them, but I agree that they are not worth the time.

#6 1st November 2009, 6:04 AM

DON sng's are only profitable long term if you can mass multi-table them. They are the lowest variance sng there is. They use to be a goldmine before people realized you shouldn't be playing them like a normal sng.

#7 1st November 2009, 6:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnnybmoto

DON sng's are only profitable long term if you can mass multi-table them. They are the lowest variance sng there is. They use to be a goldmine before people realized you shouldn't be playing them like a normal sng.

Yes and you can play turbo ones which in theory shouldnt take too long, people play silly volumes of these which in turn generates faster bonus points or rake. Personall I dont play them but I can see why some people do.

#8 1st November 2009, 6:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neo Wiggin

So, cardschat regulars:

I don't think the NL double or nothing SnG's are worth it, and here's why.

The bubble takes about as long on these SnG's as it does for regular SnG's -- eliminate five people for regular ones, four people for DoN. That means that the blinds are going to be at about the same place, assuming players of similar skill levels, which is now pretty much the case. The blinds determine approximately when the bubble is most likely to occur, not the other way around. The length of a SnG vs DoN is just a matter of speed versus skill. Faster games = more games but less skill. This is comparable to normal versus turbo games.

For you as a player, if you are going to win the SnG, you either win it because you have a huge stack (let's say 3x the starting stack), or because somebody gets eliminated ahead of you, even though you are also starting to get decimated by the blinds. SnGs should be played to cash, not to get first place. You should never be "building a large stack" in neither SnGs nor DoNs. MTTs are the place for that and the reason for it has to do with a top heavy prize structure.

In the first instance, you would really rather be in a normal Sit-N-Go, because you have the potential to get 1st or 2nd place. First place pays 250% of DoN, second place 150%.

In the second instance, when you are one of the people threatened with elimination, you will often have to go all-in and you may very well get called in a coin flip situation or worse. For example, if you have AQ, you have to shove, and you may find yourself up against AK. Of course, same goes for any pair less than KK. When you ship, most of the time people fold. Fold equity is king in both a normal SnG and a DoN. You could also very well have 60+% equity. If you are trying to build a huge stack in STT SnGs, you are playing them wrong.

If you win that shove, you have made the money (congratulations!) but you now have a medium-big stack that can't compete for still larger sums of money. If you double up at ~1100 chips (with 1500 starting stack) you will have ~2400 chips. This doesn't even guarantee a cash in a DoN.

So here's the math:

Let's say you play six $10 Sit N Gos and win or cash in four of them. If you play DoN, you've made $18.40.

If you can accomplish the same feat in a regular SnG, then let's say three of those times that you cash you get 3rd, for a total (net) profit of $21. Then of course, you lose two, for a total loss of $1. If you get 2nd or 1st in the other game where you cash, you are significantly ahead of DoN, by at least $7.60 -- almost 50%!

Now, of course, you might argue that it's harder to get any prize money at all in a regular sit n go, but I disagree. The problem with DoN is that it's so passive/collusive that if you are the short stack on the bubble, everyone will collude against you, plus you won't get called by medium stacks when you have a great hand. They might call in a regular SnG because they also need to build their stacks. Harder to cash in DoN as opposed to regular SnG is beyond lol. If you can cash in 55%+ in STT SnGs, you could make a fortune even playing the micros given you do some multi tabling.

What do you think?

Best,

Neo Wiggin

Responses in bold above.

A higher ROI is achievable in a SnG versus a comparable DoN. However, this is counterbalanced by the ability to play more tables. You never have to play less than 6 handed so you can play more tables of DoN. Also, DoN have less variance than SnGs because the payout structure is flat.

I will not say one is better than the other because this will vary based on personal preference and the overall strength of the people playing it. However, DoN are not "not worth it" depending on your circumstances.

#9 1st November 2009, 4:08 PM

Myself I enjoy them. It's pretty simple to make the money and relatively easy to build your BR. I'm playing with a cash rate of just about 85%. They are not like a sit n go. Play em for what they are and you come out ahead. I use em to fund my tourney play, and so far its working just fine. May not be the most fun to play, but the object is to stay in the plus column.
Just my opinion

#10 1st November 2009, 10:54 PM

I used to play them and then worked out that you needed to cash in more than you lost just to break even. Not good value in my opinion.

#11 1st November 2009, 11:02 PM

Yeah, I dont understand the pull towards these types of games. I just really like to play, so the turbo ones dont make too much sense to me. Plus if Im just trying to play to make money, in the 30 mins or so it takes to complete a turbo SnG I can make the same multitabling ring games. I do like playing SnG's, but if Im going to play anything like that its usually only going to be a 9 man or a low limit multitable game.

#12 1st November 2009, 11:31 PM

I like the DoNs when my bankroll is small. Cashing in 75%+ of them isn't really unrealistic.

#13 1st November 2009, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnnybmoto

DON sng's are only profitable long term if you can mass multi-table them. They are the lowest variance sng there is. They use to be a goldmine before people realized you shouldn't be playing them like a normal sng.

Everybody will plays different DoN SnG.There is no need to make an effort for first place.You just need to reach the bubble.I don't play them i think everybody will play extremely tight to get in first five places.

#14 2nd November 2009, 12:38 AM

I totally disagree. I play double or nothings on Poker Stars alot and have been very profitable from them. You just have to play them right, be much less aggressive. The major difference for me is the turbos. Turbos Double or Nothings are not worth it if you ask me because the blinds move to quick and it comes down to too much luck. Non turbos give you plenty of time to catch a big hand and double up and almost assure yourself of a victory.

#15 2nd November 2009, 7:37 AM

The double or nothing tournaments can be great for some players or terrible for others. If you like the slow, conservative type of play then they can be very profitable for you, however if you like to play aggresive then i would not recomment these tournaments as they probably arent for you. I wouldnt waste my time on them as they do go for a very long time and i would much prefer to play a 9man in almost the same amount of time.

IMO it would be better not to play these tournaments, but for anyone who wants to try them.....they are definetely worth a try.

#16 2nd November 2009, 8:58 AM

I think that DoN are most a question of luck than everything else, so I agree that it can be very frustrating when you lose :/

#17 2nd November 2009, 9:06 AM

i have done well with the D or N , I think it's your style of play that
contributes to your outcome.....adapt..adapt..adapt

#18 3rd November 2009, 9:37 AM

I didn't like these tournaments when they first started. A few weeks ago I came across an article online that said how profitable they are.

First of all, the rake is a bit cheaper for these vs. reg SNGs.

Also, you can play more tables than the reg ones. Getting reads on your opponents in these are not as important as getting reads in reg SNGs. All you have to do is basically double your stack one time, and can usually fold your way to the money.

Lastly, these tournaments attract bad players who are not very confident in cashing in a reg SNGs. I've seen a lot of players play way too loose in the early levels which is the opposite of optimal strategy for these tournaments. These should be played like a satellite tournament. Everyone gets the same prize who cashes, so trying to get a big chip lead and playing for 1st place is not necessary.

#19 3rd November 2009, 2:46 PM

I found them boring when I had a go at them a while back, but didn't really like them. I am going to give them another try though as they may be profitable.
Have those triple or nothings been scrapped now coz don't see them on the site?

#20 3rd November 2009, 10:38 PM

Just played 4 today and cashed in 3 of them.
Didn't multitable but if you could mulitable 4 or 5 effectively then they could be quite profitable.
They do go up to $100 buy in.
A 70% cash rate is certainly doable at the lower buy ins but the players are probably better at the higher but ins.

Suppose you multitable and play 30 of the $10.80 double or nothings in day with 70% cash rate in a day, which will take about 6 hours I guess.
You pay 30 x $10.80 = $324 entry fees.
You get back 30 x 0.7 x $20 = $420 prizes
This means you get net profit $96 a day, which ain't bad at all.

I do agree they're not the most enjoyable to play by a long shot however.
They're by far the easiest tournament to multitable though.

#21 4th November 2009, 1:07 AM

I actually like to play them, and I do when my funds get a little low, for me its an easy way to build my br up, typically I place in 80 to 90 percent of them playing the 5 dollar ones, I build it back up to 40 or 50 bucks, lets go play again

#22 4th November 2009, 1:26 AM

I just started playing them and I actually have a great sucess rate. I have played 11 and doubled in 10 of them. I find it easier to still blinds in this and play agressive because everybody just wants to sit back and try to make the money.

#23 4th November 2009, 4:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by canucks921

I just started playing them and I actually have a great sucess rate. I have played 11 and doubled in 10 of them. I find it easier to still blinds in this and play agressive because everybody just wants to sit back and try to make the money.

I doubt that a 90% success rate is really sustainable in the long term.
80% may be doable at the lower buy ins, but probably 70% is realistic for the higher ones. If you can multitable the $50 ones and cash just 70% of the time you could be making a fortune. I don't know how strong the players are at those buy ins though - probably much harder.

#24 4th November 2009, 4:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by peacebrother

Thet are not worth the time and effort , same goes for HU sngs. I would rather play 9 man.

I think the DoNs attract the beginner/novice croud. HU sngs attract the, "I just wanna play a tournament really quick" type of croud.

I did play 100 HU sngs a while ago and tracked the results to see if they are profitable or worth the time. I ended with an ~18% ROI, which is half my normal ROI for MTTs, so I obviously stuck with playing MTTs.

#25 4th November 2009, 9:32 PM

I tend to like the double-ups, however, lately they seem harder to win and I'm finding my winning/earnings seem better just playing at a regular ring game. I'm going to have to play a series and get hard comparisons.

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