Last week, I started a thread but got deviated (by my own example, sorry) that got me to thinking. Here’s the premise:

Last week, I preached patience with all in situations to survive longer in tourneys. I made an example of KK versus 55 preflop in the first hour. Yes, I’ll take that every time. I concede it was a bad example. But let’s look at it carefully. To preface, I’m not taking any sides with this one. Just trying to calculate the risk.

Anyway, here’s the situation. First hand of a tourney with blinds 10/20, starting stack 3000 chips, 1000 entrants, 200 make the money (avg stack will be 15,000). You get KK in the cutoff. Someone in early position goes all in. everyone folds and the blinds will fold after you call. We’d all probably call but is it really worth it? Let’s figure out this guy’s range and why’d he want to go all in:

AA – He’s on tilt from getting them cracked and wants people to pay for cracking them in the future or he’s a “Kill Phil” disciple that preaches going all in with the best or he’s a new player who sees AA and shoots his load. Let’s give this a 20% probability.

AK – He’s the type who overplays ‘Big Slick’ drastically. We see that a lot. 25%.

QQ or JJ – Big hands that he doesn’t want cracked so he discourages action. 25%

A rag – He’s a maniac who loves Aces – 10%

Small pair – He just wants to race for his stack early – 15%

Any two – complete nutter. Maniac. – 5%

Now that I’ve compiled a very rudimentary read on this guy let’s figure out our win odds (I’m rounding up):

AA W = (.20)x(.20) = .04 L = (.20)x(.80) = .16
AK W = (.25)x(.66) = .17 L = (.25)x(.34) = .08
QQJJ W = (.25)x(.80) = .20 L = (.25)x(.20) = .05
A rag W = (.10)x(.70) = .07 L = (.10)x(.30) = .03
SmPr W = (.15)x(.80) = .12 L = (.15)x(.20) = .03
????? W = (.10)x(.85) = .09 L = (.10)x(.15) = .01

So our win odds are about 69% to win against the hands he’s probably holding which is good. Good not great. Our pot odds are 3030 to 3000 which is about 1 to 1.

Ev = (.69)x(3030) – (.31)x(3000) = 2091 – 930 = 1,160 which is a gain of about a third of our stack (Yes I know we’ll be doubling up). Our double up to 6,030 got us closer to the 15,000 avg stack when we get close to the money but it doesn’t greatly increase our chances to cash (it does help although we have about 2 hours and hundreds of hands before the bubble. Anything can happen). Our M is still well over 20 as is the M’s of our opponents. Plus, at 69%, there’s better opportunities to double up that are less riskier like flopping a set or even going in pre flop with AA. Again, not a bad play and I’d probably call the all in 90% of the time. But early, when the blinds are so low and we’re so far from the money, it doesn’t have as much value as later on.

Same situation but late in the tourney, in the money, 200 people left, avg. stack 15,000 with blinds of 1000, 2000 with 100 antes. Our stack is 20,000.
Ev = (.69)x(23900) – (.31)x(20000)= 16491 – 6200 = 10,291 which is about half our stack. The double up to 43,900 takes us from little over average to nearly triple the average stack due to the blinds and antes being such a big percentage of stack size. This move has a much greater impact on our tourney survival as it increases our M from 5 (red zone) to 11 (yellow zone).

Anyway, I’m about surviving in tourneys and trying to get my money in with less risk and greater value. Doubling up does have value always but it’s much more valuable in the later stages where your M improves giving you more options than all ins. Early on, my M’s not threatened so I can find better spots than 69% to get my money in. KK’s vulnerable to Aces so I’d rather play them for all my chips preflop when the blinds, antes and a double up will really affect the growth of my stack compared to the tourney average. Again, I concede I would make the call 90% of the time early. Just trying to show it's not a great situation for all your chips. Good, not great.

Ok, first of all, saying that there is a 20% chance that villain has AA and 5% that he has any two cards is totally insane. I'd reverse those two statistics and say 5% AA (in reality, it might be lower) and 20% that he has atc. This would change your calculation vastly. Folding KK to an open shove the first hand of a MTT is just criminal