Break even Stretches

What's your longest break even stretch?
How many hands long before you should sit back and think, this is no longer bad luck, I'm either tilting or my game is flawed?

I always think my game is flawed, because, well, it just is!

In SSNLHE, the authors mention that Sunny Mehta had a 40 BI downswing playing $200NL preparing for the writing of that book in the section on BRM, but achieved a solid winrate over several 100K hands. That had to take several 10K hands to recover from - their BRM recommendation is 100 BI's!!! - so a breakeven stretch over a substantial number of hands is to be expected.

I would get concerned if I had a 15-20K hand breakeven stretch and I didn't think I had a serious leak in my game - not panicky, but concerned. Getting a review from a respected peer/better player can go a long way toward reassuring you whether you have fundamental flaws/tilt that need work.

I had a pretty terrible June (and knew I had major leaks in my game), but I think I've identified enough of my major leaks to have a solid July, in large part from everyone's feedback/discussions in this forum (including from you, thanks for that incidentally).

break even stretches, up and down swings are just a posteriori rationalising of a pseudo random process. It does not really mean anything.

My longest break-even stretch so far is about 50k hands. But within or around this strech, you could also find upswings and downswings and it really doesn't mean anything at all.

Oh, and you're obviously tilting if you post this, and you game is obviously flawed as you're not profiting from durrrr and ivey at the nosebleeds. Working on your state of mind and on your game is always a good thing, regardless of the swing your mind pretends you're in.

Haha that's what I'd say if i saw someone post this.
Surprisingly I'm not....yet.

Days were the buyins you lose are blatent bad beats and coolers never tilt me.
In most cases it is not black and white KK vs AA or 2outers hitting me on the river, if my play comes into question at all that is when I will experience a subtle tilt which is caused by lack of confidence in my own abilities.

The way to keep that confidence up is to post those hands you may deem as questionable, in most cases my play will be affirmed and my self confidence restored. Now and again happy days I find a leak I can plug.

40BI's
It scares me the size of the swings we can encounter whilst playing.
Especially when I can only manage 4 tables and around 15hours a week, a 40BI swing would no doubt set me back a good couple of months.

Getting reviewed by another player would be good but it is not something you can reasonable ask. I've tried it twice in the past and they can only really review your big hands. Thankfully both times they identified some leaks but I suspect most people's leaks do not come from their big hands.

Every big loss we have tends to be scrutinized thoroughly both by ourselves and on forums. I suspect my leaks would likely exist in the little pots and small fundamental plays I never think of posting and our so numerous they are impossible to check by a peer without spending hours on end looking which of course would be an unreasonable demand.

I think I shall start to focus posting my smaller hands to find leaks. Rather than post my big ones for reassurance.

Try to make a video of you playing a session and then post it for comments.

Mine's at least 100K hands (don't have my db here to tell you exactly).

Recipe of that long of a BE stretch? Win at level > move up > get crushed > move down > repeat.

Good advice.

This.

To the best of my knowledge, it's just above 10k hands.

Never thought about it because like Belgo said, up & down swings are a part of the game & variance sometimes outweighs the other stuff so it doesn't really mean much. Plus, 10k hands isn't a big enough sample (which I just recently learned) to mean anything.

Not a bad idea I think I shall do just that.
At best I'll find a few leaks, at worst it will be mildly educational.

I'm just not rolled to take them on yet. Their time will come