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  Poker - Bad beat probability
 
  #1  
16-06-2008, 3:46 PM
light65536
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 164
Bad beat probability

Here are some theoretical possibilities:

AK suited vs 5-7(offsuite)
65% to 34% (to win)

Probability of losing with AK suited to 5-7 4x in a row:

.34^4 = 1.3%

Probability of not losing AK suited to 5-7 4x in a row:
1 - (.34 ^4) = 98%


Probability of losing AK suited to 5-7 4x in a row out of 100 games:
87%
1- (.98^100)

Hope you find it interesting. My probability theory is pretty rusty. If I did this wrong please correct it. Actually it may be more like 67% likely to lose because I probably should round up to 99% but the point is obvious more likely then not.. and the decimal precision matters in this case.

I found this java applet
Hitting Streaks Probability Calculator

When I put .34, 100, and 4 it came up with 60% likely. So if you play 5-7offsuite vs AKsuited you are more likely then not to win 4 times in a row if you play 100 games. Out of 500 games you are 98% likely to win 4x in a row.

Last edited by light65536 : 16-06-2008 at 3:54 PM.
 

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  #2  
16-06-2008, 4:58 PM
D'wilius
Amateur Member
 
Plays at: Pokerstars
Posts: 1,857
prob. of winning 4 straight as 2/3 to 1/3 favorite? less than 1/5
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