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Poker - Bad beat probability
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Bad beat probability
Here are some theoretical possibilities:
AK suited vs 5-7(offsuite) 65% to 34% (to win) Probability of losing with AK suited to 5-7 4x in a row: .34^4 = 1.3% Probability of not losing AK suited to 5-7 4x in a row: 1 - (.34 ^4) = 98% Probability of losing AK suited to 5-7 4x in a row out of 100 games: 87% 1- (.98^100) Hope you find it interesting. My probability theory is pretty rusty. If I did this wrong please correct it. Actually it may be more like 67% likely to lose because I probably should round up to 99% but the point is obvious more likely then not.. and the decimal precision matters in this case. I found this java applet Hitting Streaks Probability Calculator When I put .34, 100, and 4 it came up with 60% likely. So if you play 5-7offsuite vs AKsuited you are more likely then not to win 4 times in a row if you play 100 games. Out of 500 games you are 98% likely to win 4x in a row. Last edited by light65536 : 16-06-2008 at 3:54 PM. |
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