Am I just on a three year hot streak?

I've been playing poker very consistently for about 3 years now, all starting in mid-2006. Since then, here is a summary of my learnings and pursuits:

2003: PRE MONEYMAKER WINNING!!!!! lol. I was invited to a game with a bunch of seniors in high school (I was a freshman, I excitedly accepted). I never won (nor cashed) and rarely won pots. I sucked.

Mid-2006 to late 2006: I started actually looking things up online (no books) about playing poker after my friend Kevin (RIP) won a very hefty sum in a $5 tournament online. I've always been a brain game person, so once I learned that poker involved so much mental work I was determined to learn to play.

Late in 2006 I started thinking I was pretty good. I wasn't a snob about it, but I won a few friendly tournaments, etc.

Early 2007: Then, I went to North Carolina to visit my brother who was in the Marines. He knew of my recent spike in interest in poker (he has been pretty active since 2005 himself) He said he knew of a great home game just a few miles away that happened three times a week. Some real estate guy had 3 tables in his home and hosted a very professionally set up raked home game of mostly NLHE. He'd let his friends who need money deal, and they'd collect rake ($3 max, $1/2 blinds). My brother said he'd front me the other $100 (not as a stake) if I completed the buy in with my own $100. I agreed, and over the course of 3 hours, I went from $200 to over $800.

back then I played a very basic tight game. I don't think I was too aggressive and the only preflop plays I knew about were probably what to play in general. I didn't know much about position, didn't pay attention to stack sizes, and probably didn't know that 3betting AK is a pretty standard move.

Afterr winning, I came home and was more into it than ever. My brother gave me $10 on Pokerstars and I ran it up and down (never really broke like $25) in $1.20 sng's. this happened maybe three times, when I finally found cardschat.

May 2007: After joining I learned a lot more about preflop play and why aggression is key to winning. Quickly after joining I won a Bodog freeroll through this great site, and suddenly I had a roll on there (can't remember how much it was, maybe like $30?) I read a few reviews on poker books and picked up The Theory of Poker (didnt' realize it was so math heavy), and received Super/System 2 from my girlfriend for my graduation. After about two months I had run my bodog roll up to about $250 playing .25/.50 limit and 10nl. I didn't just run straight up to $250, I had the standard swings and multiple buy in wins/losses per day.

I was finally positionally aware and was (pretty) strong at preflop play. Postflop I wasn't necessarily weak, but I was NOT a value bettor. I didn't like seeing showdowns without the nuts (except in 10nl, where I played AK on a K8T board like the nuts correctly) I then sold my account to my brother and he lost it in 2 days.

Late 2007: I headed to Soaring Eagle indian casino on my own for my birthday. I was aware of pot odds and set mining, etc. I played a solid tag g ame for 7 hours and wound up breaking even. My brother had some money on Full Tilt he let me use and I got 4th place in a $5 90 man. He let me keep half of the profits for my own tilt roll. I played a bit on Full Tilt for a while, but just had trouble getting things goiing. Also, I didn't like the software compared to Pokerstars. So I sold the money back to my brother.

In late December, I had to perform unspeakable acts on the various moderators here, and was blessed with admission to the loyaler club. Shortly after, I won a hefty freeroll (I think it was like $100) on pokerstars and finally had a roll I could use to build. I also received HoH 1/2/3 for Christmas. this helped my postflop play tremendously, and introduced me to some very simple and yet very effective strategies.

Early 2008: I played the same strategies as on bodog at the 10nl table and started the slow grind to the top. I began exploring other games than NLHE and got pretty into PLO.

I then made an amazing bluffcall against skoldpadda in which I had him completely dominated. Though I won the tournament, I realized I'll never get good enough to play tournaments besides just for fun (forget ring games).

PokerStars Game #15330530122: Tournament #75492150, $5.00+$0.50 Omaha Pot Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2008/02/16 - 17:01:09 (ET)
Table '75492150 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: BabyHumvee (7515 in chips)
Seat 2: PLF_DBA_MAN (4040 in chips)
Seat 7: Emperor XIX (5635 in chips)
Seat 8: rottyowner65 (2780 in chips)
Seat 9: djgolfcan (4030 in chips)
rottyowner65: posts small blind 200
djgolfcan: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Emperor XIX [Jc 7c 3d Ad]
djgolfcan said, "Ace"
BabyHumvee: raises 800 to 1200
djgolfcan said, "that is"
PLF_DBA_MAN: folds
Emperor XIX: calls 1200
rottyowner65: folds
djgolfcan: folds
*** FLOP *** [Ts 2d 3s]
BabyHumvee: bets 3000
djgolfcan said, "something ike that"
Emperor XIX: raises 1435 to 4435 and is all-in
BabyHumvee: calls 1435
BabyHumvee said, "lol"
*** TURN *** [Ts 2d 3s] 3♥
*** RIVER *** [Ts 2d 3s 3h] A♣
Emperor XIX said, "who's ahead???" (That was sent on the flop. computer hiccupped)
*** SHOW DOWN ***
BabyHumvee: shows [Qc As 7d Jh] (two pair, Aces and Threes)
Emperor XIX: shows [Jc 7c 3d Ad] (a full house, Threes full of Aces)
Emperor XIX said, "jlol"
Emperor XIX collected 11870 from pot
BabyHumvee said, "good red"
BabyHumvee said, "read"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 11870 | Rake 0
Board [Ts 2d 3s 3h Ac]
Seat 1: BabyHumvee showed [Qc As 7d Jh] and lost with two pair, Aces and Threes
Seat 2: PLF_DBA_MAN folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Emperor XIX (button) showed [Jc 7c 3d Ad] and won (11870) with a full house, Threes full of Aces
Seat 8: rottyowner65 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: djgolfcan (big blind) folded before Flop

This was in the team event of 08. I then got a 2nd of 47 and a 4th of 45 in the final 2 NLHE events. These finishes earned me Team Event Top player for a generous prize from my teamleader, AG. I was feeling good about my game. I don't remember making many mistakes and I was crushing 10nl and then 25nl to get my br up to about $700

Unfortunately, I didn't have PT for a majority of the time, so I didn't have the hands saved for analysis, nor do I know how many hands of each I played during my rise (which was not really fast, it was quite a grind).

Mid 08: Life started falling apart all over again. I'm forced to withdraw all of my money from Pokerstars and am screwed out of college, so I take up my job at Saturn, where I stay til April of 09. I didn't play a lot of poker during the year I was gone, but I had a nice score of $500 on my birthday in Canada. I started playing again in late May.

Now, here I am. I believe I am at the top of my game. I'm finally able to play more tthan one table at a time (I can handle 4 on my 17" 4:3 LCD, but I'm most profitable at 3). My postflop play is much less nitty. I'm getting better at putting opponents on hands and betting for value accordingly. I'm getting more use to playing based on range percentages. In sng's (which I use to suck at) I'm no longer just giving up when I'm down to 300 chips and 10/20 blinds. I'm winning many more sng's as I'm more comfortable with endgame strategy. (don't bother sharkscoping, it's not reliable for certain reasons).

I had to start from $0 once again, using a $2 stake from a good friend on here, I won $9.75 and got to keep $4 of it. I then got staked by my brother for $50 to play .25/.50. Unfortunately I just noticed that half my hands from the last month are gone but I played about 1k hands at 25/50, 800 hands at 25nl, 4k hands at 10nl, and 1k hands at .5/1 FLHE.

Profits are (estimated):

50nl: $60
25nl: $60
10nl:$90
.5/1FL: $64
Whatever the difference is in $5 sng's and $10 don's

Out of this money, my br is currently $207 (I won $250 with the stake, so I got to keep $100 of it)



Now, if you've made it this far into this post, thank you very much. I don't know what my image is on this site. Last year I think I had a good image and while my advice wasn't valued as highly as others, I seemed to know what I was doing. But now, (as well as then) I'm very sub conscious about HA threads. I don't know what it is but I just never seem to come up with the consensus. Is my knowledge of poker theory flawed? Is most of my winnings consisting of a 3 year run on a hot streak? I know that I make mistakes, and sometimes those mistakes earn me a lot of money, but I know that they were mistakes and to not do them again. I know how to beat certain limits and that at micros you can't play fancy.

But the root of my question is this:

I just can't seem to come up with logical reasoning in HA threads. I'm pretty good at reading opponents in game, but when I'm looking at someone else's HH, I'm usually pretty stumped. Is this a leak? Should I be able to come up with at least the consensus a few times? When I look through my own database and find interesting hands, I usually spot leaks of my own (mostly it's really retarded bluffs, and I miscalculate odds on draws and definitely overestimate my fold equity).

Could I possibly be as winning a player as my stats estimate? Or am I just break even (maybe even losing) who is just running good? As half of my hands from myh database disappeared when I migrated back to PT from HEM (going back to HEM next week), I can't post my recent activity graphs, I'll find them on here and post them later though. Here's a chart from 2007 to mid 08




Tourneys are pretty low sample, so my overall 299% roi is pretty unsustainable . And yes, those freeroll numbers are accurate.

Here's some graphs:

1100 hands at 10nl




2700 hands at 10nl





And here's the stake run (last run is at 10nl)

I't spretty hard to have a winning streak over 3 years. Just keep playing and and it seems like you are just a winning player. If in the end you cant keep winning money then you are a losing player. Until then, why not just be happy with making money? Obviously 299% roi is unsustainable but you can probably have a very positive roi even if it snot that high.

3 years is quite a long time to be on a winning streak as i said, so my answer would be no. but you may be slightly above EV.

I'm very happy with my results, both past and present, my main question is just that can I be a successful player without being able to relay my thoughts about hands? Like I said, I think I make good decisions during hands, but even clear cut HH's that I look at for otherrs (mostly about certain postflop plays, and lines. I'm not much for cmoing up with lines ) I just can't seem to come up with what is eventually the consensus.

I'm not trying to say "HEY LOOK AT ME" I honestly am curious as to whether or not I can progress to beating big limits without overcoming this hurdle.

i mean when you're in the flow of the game it's pretty different from just looking at a text hand history with written reads (and sometimes without reads) and trying to figure out the best play if you were in that situation. sure most people who are good at one are good at the other but i'm sure there are exceptions

as long as you think you have a good feel for where you're at when you're actually playing, can logically figure out ways to play a hand that make sense and ways that don't make sense, you're probably on the right track

and im pretty much sure you're a winning player at the stakes you play, but statistically it's not exactly proven yet. i don't think you really understand the magnitude of variance though and how long it takes for results to be meaningful (i don't fully grasp it either but i'm definitely closer to getting it now than i was half a year ago). there are really good players who have had 100k hand break-even streaks at cash yet theyre still playing professionally and doing their thing today. you most likely haven't played 100k hands of cash in your lifetime yet. 100k is sooomewhat on the extreme side especially at lower stakes, but for example 25k hand losing streaks are very very real and it's guaranteed to happen to you multiple times no matter how good you play. even in the lowest variance form of poker possible, it can be disgusting and it's something you gotta come to terms with. but the only way to really get used to it is to get ****ed for a while and experience it. i mean i've yet to even have a 10 BI downswing so i've had it pretty good so far myself, not that i've played that much yet

if you feel good about how your in-game thought process is coming along and youre confident you can beat the games i'd suggest stepping up the number of tables you play as soon as you can. it's crucial for making your profit potential way better, and you'll get solid samples quicker that you can actually analyze which will help you develop faster. as long as you don't play so many tables that you become a robot, it will probably progress your game a good amount. but again obviously you should only do this once you feel pretty comfortable at whatever limit youre playing (and properly bankrolled)

lenght of time doesnt really matter, what matters is how much hands uve played
looking at those graphs above, it is hard to say seeing as u have only play a menial number of hands

i dont think u should worry too much about the HA thing, whats more important is that u can spot ur own leaks

I guess we could do an approximation of how many hands I've played. Most of that chart above is online, but a fair bit of it is live, so I'll go with 250 hours played online.

So a good conservative guess at hands played is prolly what, like 60 hands p/hour? so that's about 15k hands. Of that, I think around 8400 is cash. Plus another 6k hands from the last few weeks. Plus another few k in live hands. So, let's say 15k cash hands total.

emperor are you from michigan

It takes a long time to be able to read a HH right. You have to re-read them several times, before you get a good grasp on what is really happening in a HH.

As for the rest of it, stretch that streak out to 6 years, get a bit more aggressive with your BRM, and see what happens. Just a little more agro, don't get stupid all of a sudden.

Such a small number of hands that your winrate means almost nothing.

I've had 15K hand stretches where I've run -8.5 BB/100 and another at 9.7 BB/100. So what can you tell from a 15K sample? Not much.

Yeah, a mile north of detroit

Oh... I didn't realize you had such a tiny sample size. I guess i just play an insane amount of hands comparatively.

Other than that, as others said it doesn't matter if you think differently from other players. As long as you feel that you play well and understand where you can improve, you'll do fine.