The act of randomness and poker calculators?

#1 2nd June 2010, 9:49 AM

I read in a book that I can't seem to remember the name of, that in the act of randomness, it does not matter what whole cards you have or know of, the chances of any next coming up will always have an equal chance of being any of the suits.

So basically this tells me that if you have a flush draw, and you were to go all in having the TURN and RIVER cards left, there should always be a 50% chance of a flush coming?

But in poker calculators it says something like 32% chance of making a flush?

This might sound dumb, but any insight on the subject would be great.

#2 2nd June 2010, 6:15 PM

I never heard of 50% flush coming on turn and river with flush draw. This has to be a misprint or mistake by the author I will try to look it up.

#3 2nd June 2010, 7:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rounder22

I never heard of 50% flush coming on turn and river with flush draw. This has to be a misprint or mistake by the author I will try to look it up.

50% after the flop.

#4 2nd June 2010, 7:58 PM

I would assume that you mis-remembered the statement, because it's wrong.

There are 13 cards of each suit in the deck, if you have AKh in your hand, and the flop has 2 hearts and 1 spade, that means there are 5 cards now out of the deck, 4 of which are hearts, leaving 9 hearts remaining.

The cards left in the deck:

9 hearts, 12 spades, 13 clubs, 13 diamonds.

Clearly there isn't an equal chance for each suit to come on the turn.

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