WTSD leak

Hi,

I found a serious leak in my game. I go to showdown WAY too often with losing hands. The hand sample is 40k+, so it's definately a leak. I'm a winning player at my level, and perhaps that's the problem: My leak isn't being exploited. However, that doesn't take away the fact there's a leak. It's just not so obvious, as I'm winning.

My question to the community is how to fix this? I play a lot of $11 donkaments and use statistics a lot (Pokertracker + PAHud). I reckon I'm generally paranoid villain's bluffing and am making too many info calls / call down with a semi-crap hand / too stubborn too accept a donk drawn out on me.

UPFRONT CAVEAT: I don't play real money, and do not have PT or PAHUD. However I can usually figure out stats.

With your stat progs can you determine the +/- value of your showdowns? My thought here is yeah, maybe you are going to often, but if when you win it is bigger than when you don't there may be other things to consider, like giving the action to get the action.

I'm not sure how to extract that information from my stats. My win% at showdown is 50% over 40k hands, and make a profit from all positions, even the blinds. My VP$IP is ~ 29% (I play 6-seaters only) and my PFR% is ~ 12%.

As the blinds go up, my WTSD% goes up as well. My other area of concern is my aggression factor per street. It doesn't change as the blinds go up, and it's 2/1/2 (flop/turn/river). It looks like I'm not being aggressive enough on the turn, when I meet resistance on the flop.

My ROI% is 26.50 (~7k in buyins spent, ~8.8k won). But perhaps I could be doing much better.

If you are playing the SNG's, how many times do you think you called a small stacks' all-in simply because you had good odds / good reason? Maybe thats skewing the results a bit? Times such as when you attempt a blind steal, get called and are priced in to push the small stack all in on the flop regardless if you hit?

With that ROI I wouldn't be very worried myself. It it ain't broke, don't fix it.

SnG stats are harder to define since the number of players changes constantly. That is why you are + even in the blinds. You play heads up and win more than you lose, you will have a +EV even in them. You get to 3 and 4 handed you will tend to be forced to play more marginal hands and make calls with more marginal hands (top pair with middle/weak kicker) that in a full ring game you could let go. Another example would be heads up when both of you check it down to river and your 47 gets beat by his 94 with high card only. I agree with Ef. You are making money, I don't know how much you are going to improve by winning at the showdown by 4 or 5% more in SnGs. I only play 6 handed SnGs and I stopped try to track my hand stats since I am constantly playing short tables. I was seeing something like 65% of the BB and 48% of the SB.

I think you are micromanaging your game a little to much. If I was losing money and saw stats that I thought was wrong I would see if I could change it to see if it makes a differnece. Start tracking from 0 for another 40k hands and see if you can squeeze out another 5% win at showdown and see if your ROI goes up or down. I don't think it will make that much of a difference in your long term profits.

Thanks for your input.

The only time I've seen this discussed before (and I can't remember where) it was considered that 50% was about right. The profit comes from winning bigger pots and losing smaller ones and also all the pots you pick up before the river.

Titans is right about the nature of SnGs skewing stats unless you are careful. A 20-30% ROI on SnGs over a decent sample is certainly nothing to be worried about

As pointed out "Went to Showdown" stat is far more important than "Won $ at Showdown" stat. I will back Irexes up with saying the 50% is about right for "Won $". Went to Showdown shouldn't be too high (low to mid 30s), unless you want to be a calling station. Also, as previous posters alluded, these stats mean far far less when applied to tournaments as opposed to ring games.

Good point....

W$SD means "Won Money at Showdown."
This is a percentage that shows how often a player wins when he goes to
showdown. Good players have a number higher than 50%, meaning they win
more often than they lose at Showdown.

(Allin)W$SD means "Won at Showdown IF Allin."
This is a great stat for you No Limit players! If a player moves All-in on you and
he has a high (Allin)W$SD stat, you better have a darn good hand to call.

(TU-Raise)W$SD means "Won at Showdown IF he Raised on the Turn."
Have you ever wondered what to do when a player raises you on the Turn?
Well this stat gives you a great indication of how serious his Turn raises are.
A high number here means he rarely is bluffing, while a low number means he
likes to bluff with his turn raises.

I have found some SNG sftware/tracker thing you might want to have a look, i use the cash game version which is great for recording my stats and my opponets stats. It also offers tournament advice. If its rubbish let me know and i will shun it forever more lol.

heres the link Tournament Indicator | Online Tournament Poker Calculator

Here's my graph (1.5 months) :-)