Why can't I just win one coinflip on the bubble of a big tourney?

You guys really wouldn't believe how unlucky I am in general in poker. However, one tourney two weeks ago I placed 2nd and won a ton of money (about $4000). In that tourney, I won about half my coinflips exactly, I did a LOT of gambling on the bubble. I got all in once with AQ vs AK but still won. I got all in like twice with ace jack vs ace - small and lost. And I ended up getting second.

Yesterday I played the fifty fifty at full tilt and I was doing great. But when we got to the bubble, and the all in preflops started to become common, I lost about 4 out of 4 all in preflop coinflips. I had AJ vs 22, lost, 66 vs AK, lost. I was then shortstacked on the button with QQ, so obviously I was gonna go with the hand. A player in EP raised, I went all in. The big big blind went all in over the top with 10 10. And of course, he won when a 10 came on the turn. Over the course of my whole poker career, I have won about 30% of all my races. WHEN will this end?!?!?

And in the fifty fifty yesterday, if I got so lucky as to win at least 1 of my 4 all in preflop coinflips, I definetly would have made the money.

And all this BS that is happening to me is hurting my poker confidence I think. Somehow I'm "afraid" when I push all in with AQ and he showed 10 8, because I kno he is going to win. And I just played a sit n go and got all in with AA vs Ace 4 preflop, and of course, he wins when the flop comes 4 9 10 and the turn is a 4.

What is going on?!?!?!? It can't be just bad luck, I've been playing almost daily for many months on full tilt and this has been going on all the time. There are a few brief periods where I my best hands win as often as they should, when my KK wins against 88 80% of the time during one day of playing, or when I win with 99 vs AK 50% of the time. And during these great periods I'm raking in the money. But most of the time, over the course of one day, when I get all with QQ vs AK its extremely rare that I win.

So what is the cause of all this BS that happens to me all the time??? Whenever it happens, I look at the odds sheet and see that my hand was 50% of more to win, so I say to myself "it's just bad luck, you're playing fine", but I keep losing and losing and losing.

Sorry guys, I'm on major tilt right now. It's just so frustrating. If I had won at LEAST 50% of all races, I'd be freaking wealthy right now. I lose with pocket pairs, I lose with AK/AQ, I lose with pair over pair...I lose with AK vs AQ.

why did you post this under poker strategy. your telling us your bad beat storys.

Sorry but we have all been there.

and all i can suggest is keep playing tournaments and keep getting bad beats

you know what they say the more bad beats you have the better poker player you are

Just remember when you did win the coin-flips - there was a person on the other end od it probably thinking the very same thing

In 50/50 situations remember that you will win in 50 of them, but you will also lose 50 of them.

I would say in the last month i have lost when all-in with the best hand 75% of the time, but as long as i have the best hand there is not much more i can do.

Just keep playing the good cards and it will come right

For me it is when you lose the coin flip. Its not a sbad early in a tourny or at the final table, but when you get hit at the bubble its bad

I find it had to take bad beats period, but I think my frustration is born out of desperation. Its not that I need the cash that bad, its just I have set targets that I want to achieve.

To finish off, all I would say is that as you pointed out the hands you talk about were 50/50 so therefore that means u will only win one out of 2 - I can live with that.

Out of interest, how do you know you only won 30% of your 50/50`s?

You hit it right here. People don't remember when their QQ holds up against AK, they just think "it's about time I won a coin flip", while on the other end you have someone who thinks they never win coin flips. Unless you keep track of coin flips or check using poker tracker, it's hard to believe you when you say you only win around 30% of your coin flips.

Maybe it's a case or you putting yourself in to many coinflips.
Like say your getting yourself shortstacked and then when people call your jacks with something like A-Q it's easier for them to call.

One thing i've learned is coinflips are much more profitable when they AREN'T for your tournament life.

Standard. Stop tilting or stop playing when you tilt. You have cashed for second recently and probably given bad beats at appropriate (ie. bubble) time to others. MTT are, by nature, high variance. Stop playing them and concentrate on SNG if you want to reduce your variance.


Standard deviation also dictates that sometimes, you'll get unlucky while at others times, you'll feel like you have a 4 leaf clover shoven up your... wallet.

I dont keep track of exacly how many coinflips I win vs how many I lose, but I am positive I don't win nearly 50% of them. All I'm asking of from the poker gods is for me to win them 50% of the time like I should.

The one time I placed 2nd in a rebuy tourney (my best finish in a multitable tourney ever), I wasn't really "lucky". I was able to win it because half the time I got my money in for a coinflip, I won. It's like, once in a while I run normal and during these period I have great success, but most of the time I'm so ridiculously unlucky its unbelievable. There are also a lot of times where I get my $ in as a 60-40 favorite or a 40-60 dog, and I've noticed that when I'm the slight favorite, I lose just a bit more than I win, it feels like I'm the 40-60 dog. And the times where I'm a 40-60 dog, I NEVER EVER win, not a chance in hell.

well I can tell ya , that you do suckout as often as everyone else , but sounds like you're doing way to many coinflips , sure a certain number are part of any tourney . but going for coinflips on the bubble is not my thing without premium hands , try less coinflips a couple games and see how that works , if you have a bigstack then sure but if not let them go. jmo


ps. I second the wrong section for this post , this is not a poker strategies question .

What you are saying is impossible, at least for long stretches of time. You can lose many coinflips in a row due to deviation from the norm (the same way that if you flip a coin, the outcome of the previous flip will not affect the outcome of the present flip) but this is not achievable for large samples. Now, how large a sample needed is debatable and is dependant on volume of hands played by day (if you play one game a day, a bad stretch can last for months), but I'd wager that you are riding a rough patch and that you are tilting, wich in turns only makes you see the bad side of variance. If you feel you cannot win, take a break for a week and come back or just read books/articles on variance and coinflips.

And to say that you finished 2 in a rebuy without being lucky is ridiculous.

Yeah, you are positive, cause you are human, and humans have certain psychological traits like recall bias.

I've said it before: get PokerTracker or stop yer bitchin'.

srsly there's no way you "don't win nearly 50%" of your coinflips. you either done have a large enough sample size, or are just biased.
or im drunk.

Research the law of large numbers.

or, how about you dont push all your chips in pre flop and play some poker

"or, how about you dont push all your chips in pre flop and play some poker"

All of this happens either right when I get into the money or on the bubble. When I play large MTT (300+ players), I am able to make it to the final 60 players almost every time. And by this time, the blinds are so large theirs no point in making a raise smaller than all in. Just now, I played the $22,000 guarentee on Full tilt. Got knocked out in 25th place and won a pathetic $121, wasn't even worth my time. I played great only to watch my entire stack disappear when I got all in with AK vs QQ and lost, he flopped quad queens. Then a few hands later I'm shortstack with ace ten suited. An early position player raises, I go all in, he calls with KQ and wins with a flush. And just now I played a $55 sit n go and lost all in on the 3rd hand with KK vs JJ. We got all in preflop, and the only hands Ill go all in preflop early in a tournament with are AA or KK.

"And to say that you finished 2 in a rebuy without being lucky is ridiculous."

I didn't finish second by winning all of my coinflips, I did a lot of bluffing and blind stealing. I'm saying, that tournament I won just about half my coinflips, which is what I consider running great. When I win 20% of my coinflips, that is what I consider running normal for me. And the truth is, poker IS a lot of luck. There is skill involved but also a ton of luck, and when the blinds get so high that the starting pot is 1/3 of your stack you have no choice but to push all in and probably end up in a coinflip situation.

You are on tilt and why?

It is probably because you are like most people on this site - a decent player who when they get their chips in the pot they are normally at worse in a coin flip situation. (Give for being very short stacked, caught bluffing, etc)

Because of this the coin flips you remember are the ones that put you out of a tourny when you were in a decent position.

Last night I was in a MTT. 210 entry and we were down to 25. I had an average stack - exactly where i want to be. Delt AA. raise 2 times bb (blinds so large ppl where not prepared to call without a hand, or at least so I thought.) Tourny leader calls and everyone including blinds fold. Flop JAJ rainbow. I flop the nuts!!!!!!!!!!!! I check, chip leader raises 1/2 pot - Result!!! I call. turn 10. I check chip leader pushes me all in. He shows J10 - happy days!!! River...J my FH goes down to quads I played the hand well, made the correct decision, made the other guy make a mistake, and lost - shit happens!!!

Earlier in the same tourny I flat called with AQ in position to a raiser. Flop AQK. He checks, I raise about 1/2 my stack, he pushed allin. To much in pot to fold 2 pair. I call. He turns AK . Turn Q!!!! ny set holds up, I double up the other guy goes out.

But seriously, some of the guys have told me to `shut the f*** up about bad beats` and I now think I have come to the conclusion that ppl really don`t care. So no point in saying anything

2 points.

1. Over time, and I don`t mean 2 or 3 MTT, it is impossible for you to be losing 80% of the 50/50 coinflip situations you find yourself in - fact!!!
2. You keep saying
   Quote:

   I'm saying, that tournament I won just about half my coinflips, which is what I consider running great.

   What real solid evidence do you have to prove this other than your own memory recall? If you had figs proving this , say 12 month of figures that prove what you are saying, u would get more sympathy. However, even that would be a bad run of cards that would start to change.

You are right - there is a certain amount of luck in poker. It`s not really luck it is more probability. In poker you make your own luck, thats why u fold 72o UTG and raise with AA on the button - the probability is u will win more times with AA than you will with 72o - fact.

So I`m now going to get down off my soap box and play poker

I may have identified a problem. How do you define a coinflip? If it is not 50/50, it is not a coinflip. All in pre flop with 87 suited is NOT a coinflip.

I define a coinflip as two overcards vs a pocket pair, where it's close to 50-50 (I know the pocket pair is a slight favorite, the actual number is closer to 55-45). I swear though, I lose almost EVERY SINGLE coinflip in poker. If I'd won at least half of them throughout my poker career I'd be wealthy right now.

It's just unbelievable, it's like I'm cursed, I don't understand how this is possible. I just played a few $55 turbo sit n goes in the past few hours. All in with KK vs ace rag twice, lost. All in with 77 vs ace 9 suited, lost. All in with ace jack vs king 3, lost. All in with king queen vs ace 3, lost. All in with AQ vs 33, lost. I never once won an all in preflop. On the bright side, ONE TIME i pushed all in with AQ suited and got called by a player with 88. Flop came ace 7 2, and I held on to win, something like this happens to me VERY VERY VERY rarely.

Do you really believe that there is a cosmic conspiracy to give you bad beats?

If you do, then you should try the following:

• Find a A 4-leaf clover
• Meet 3 sheep
• Look at the new moon over your right shoulder
• Put a dress on inside out
• Cut your hair during a storm
• Sleep facing south (but not during tournaments)
• Walk in the rain
• Sleep on un-ironed sheets (Note, you can combine this with facing south)
• Have a naked woman on board a boat
• Go golfing on a rainy day

That should make you a solid poker winner.

Exactly why did you HAVE four all in pre-flop coin flips in one tournament?

this is all we're saying , if it's 50/50 then it has to win 50% of the time in the long run . period ! if your 20/80 then you just have to play the correct amount of hands and bam , back to 50/50 , so keep playing cause you got a lot of coinflips coming your way . lol . good luck.

Yea, I'm saying I don't understand how it's possible that I win less than 30% of all my coinflips, when the definition of a coinflip is a 50-50. It should be impossible, but somehow that's how it is for me ALL THE TIME. Over the long run I don't win 50% of my coinflips like all of you, I win less than 30% of them. And I'm not saying this because I lost a few coinflips in a row in one session, I'm saying this because I've been playing on Full tilt for months and its the truth.

Full Tilt the site, or frame of mind? You know, are you tilted?

OK, this time I am responding seriously.

To quantify "luck", it is very important how many coin-fliops you actually had. Bentheman, do you know that?

I calculated the probabilities and odds for a variety of cases. For example, if we had 30 coin-flip races and we won only 9 (which is 30%), the probability that we are so unlucky is about 2%. Equivalently, the odds for this happening are 46 to 1.

One way to interpret this is that if we take 47 players and let them race on coin-flips 30 times, ONE of them will get less than 30% wins.

If you had a sequence of 150 coin-flips, then the odds to be that unlucky are abouit 2 million to 1. Is that possible? Of course. It is less likely to win the lottery, but when millions play, someone gets lucky. So if you are less than 30% after 150 races, you could literally say that this is "one in a million". More accurately one in two millions.

The next row, 200 races, is significant. The odds to be that unlucky are about 133 million to one. I would estimate that there are approximately 100 million poker players in the world. So if you get less than 30% of 200 races, you can say that you are the unluckiest poker player on earth!

At 250, the odds are 9 billion to 1. There are not that many people on earth(yet).

Once you go a little further, the odds are astronomical and for all practical purposes, it becomes "impossible".

Bentheman, you now have the quantitative foundation to determine how unlucky you really are. But you have to tell us how many races you had. If you are basing this on less than 100 races, then it is perfectly possible that you had an unlucky sequence.

If you are using 300 races, I would not believe it.

Please post the number of races on which you are basing your unlucky experience.

And better luck in any future races.

P.S. If anyone is interested how I am calculating these odds, please let me know and I will try to explain it.

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I love these kind of posts because I feel like it happens to me too!!!

But seriously without a tracking program it impossible to really analyse this. I recently felt the same but when I checked on Poker Tracker it was really a case of winning only 47% of my coin flips.

In addition if you really are only winning 30% then you are due to have some incredible runs in future just due to the law of averages.

Keep at it and get some tracking software. Good luck on the felt

Rat, unfortunately it is not true that he is due for a better run. Each event is independent of the past. So he is equally likely to have another bad run as well as a good run.