What's your worse down swing in cash games and how does your average session go?

Hello, just a quick one so I get an idea. Could you answer my questions please,

First thing - how many buy-ins do you have to use as a cushion?


What is the worse down swing you have had in cash games and what limits are these? I recently was playing 5nl and had the WORSE downs wing in my life all my full houses were being done by bigger full houses, all-ins pre flop with top pairs being out done by trips and so on. I think I lost about 10-12 buy-ins in the course of 2500 hands. Every hand was going against me and I did tilt a couple more buy-ins after. Anyway I quit and had to go back to 2nl and well managed to win back 15buy-ins at 2nl in the last 5000 hands so I'm happy ish but still down over $30.00, which I guess isn't as bad as $62.00! So an idea on what you are like with this would be good.

What is your average buyins in a session based on say maybe as follows:

2500 hands.

How many buyins would you say you win on an average day grinding out 2500 hands?

How many sessions do you win on average?

What sort of dips are classed as normal? I quite often can play 1500-2000 hands, and quickly win a couple of buy-ins then lose again and by the end of the session either slightly up or down.

I've also had swings of losing 4-5 buyins within the first 100 hands and manage to either quit my session or just carry on grinding although it's hard to stay motivated at this point. Are these terrible stats to lose so many buy-ins so quickly?

Nope sounds pretty standard.

My worse downswing is 20ish buy-ins at 2nl. Obv cause I sucked at the time.

Ok thanks!

What happened at around 26/27k hands? That's one hell of a dip for 2nl lol.

Lmao I know and I have no idea really, I just suck I think the positive to take from it though, is even through something like that, look where the graph ends up.

I like to have a 50BI BR before I move up.

~-20BIs downswing. I have had several 15+ BI downers.

I have dropped 9BIs in a session twice.

Here's mine when I was playing 10NL.



Following day I ninja'd back ahead of that loss as you can see. I can't wait to replace that best day field soon since I started 25NL.

Why didn't you stop after 3 or 4?

eeek.

What you limits you on? 100nl?

how on earth do you deal with 15 BI downers? Thats just mega tiltly. I nearly went and did what I did once before and played 50/100nl HU's after 6 BI's all in preflop fav and lost everyone in space of 20mins. I then proceeded to lose $190 of my BR within 25mins of HU play or something daft.

Was it bad beats to lose all those buy-ins? As like I say I had my worse luck recently in 5nl and like I said in the OP I lost 12 buy-ins...

Why would I? If I felt like I was playing OK until the end of the session, there is no reason to quit. I never look at how I'm doing during my play so I probably had no idea I was down that much until afterward. Honestly don't remember either session but they're in PT3 and they showed up when I looked for this thread. One at 50nl and one at 100nl.

Poker should be viewed as one long session.

Yeah deffo. Thing is though, I wasn't commenting on you actually losing the 20BI it just looks like you had one massive stack on a table and lost it all-in like a $40 stack lol. Like a vertical line downwards, not a gradual down swing just one sick dip lol. It's a bigger dip than the Big One at Blackpools pleasure beach!

Nice graph though

I dropped 11 buy-ins in a week. I then ran like a little girl and hid in my nitty little house.

Like I said don't remember it in particular. here is the graph of the worst on in terms of $$s. It was on almost exactly a year ago.

worst.jpg (http://www.cardschat.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=36405&d=1298851262)

Just noticed that it was nearly -$1/hand!

51 buyins, ~ -33k so i think i probably win (or lose?).

Yeah, I'd say that's a winner (loser). How many BIs was that? PLO?

33k? Are you effing serious? :O

edited to make buy ins clearer and was plo + hold em - almost all hu some plo 6max. Decent amount of the money loss was from 2k plo but fortunately almost all the buy in loss was 400-600 so could have definitely been worse. 33k from top to bottom of month graph

Running ridiciulously hot this year though (and end of dec as you can see) so certainly can't complain about runbad


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This should give you some idea of the variance in PLO/hold em HU


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Thats quite a horrid looking graph Billy. Kinda makes me feel better when I see I'm only losing a small percentage of that lol.

By the way, you say you don't look at your BR during a session? Why is it I always need to check mine every 5minutes..I know it sounds stupid but I can't help it. This isn't likely helping me is it?...I see if I'm down a few dollars I start getting a bit wound up and probs play worse..

I just can't seem to help looking at my roll though as I'm playing..

Christ...what sort of limits are you playing then?

How "hot" are you running in terms of dollars ?

once i lost half a buy-in in a hand when i got all-in preflop with AA and a donk with K3o hit a K on the flop and 3 on the turn but then i won it back and another half buy-in on top when river came A

Bet you didn't think that DURING the runbad. Sick comeback for the month btw.

There is absolutely no way to quantify overall luck and especially not in PLO. Before Dec, I was running very hot yet was still like 30k below EV over 2-3 months. Dec came, I barely ran below EV and yet the first part of the month was easily the worst i have ever run at poker. Not even any point in quantifying it -if you run bad for life you run bad for life - the only decision you ever have is if you want to continue playing or not and if the answer to that is yes then who cares how you run as you can't control it (and yes it is much easier to say this in the middle of an upswing then in a downswing; however, i am completely aware that regardless of how bad i was running during the start of Dec, I was playing absolutely horrible and was almost certainly not playing winning poker).

Running a variance calculator on the hands i have in my data base give a 1% chance of winning about 270 buy ins over 90k hands and about a 1% chance of losing 50 buy ins over that period. Upper and lower winrate brackets for 95% CI are 25bb/100 and 2.5bb/100. That is given 90k hands at 14bb/100 at 166bb standard dev. (which is pretty ridic). Although, that said, the hands i have in my database are without a doubt the most swingy i have ever experienced, but point being don't play PLO (although the variance in PLO is great, because it means no matter how bad you are you will run hotter than the sun and think you are a poker god at some point). If you are playing nl5 ring your standard dev. is probably more like 40bbs at max (although for most people the winrate will be a lot lower which will make the $$/buyin swings seem worse - ie. a high winrate with a high standard dev. might only swing in the non-short term (short term swings will always be higher with high standard dev. no matter the winrate) as much as a low winrate with a low standard dev. - obv depends on the relative size of all those factors).

I caught that PLO upswing when I started playing, I thought I was some PLO legend. Of course the upswing ended and I am now crashing down and realise I actually suck at PLO.

Hello,

My Biggest downswing was about 3 weeks ago on full tilt poker. I started the night with around 3 K. I got it all the way up to about 7,300 within about two hours playing at multiple tables. About five hours in i was still at around 7,355 and i started playing on just one table getting ready to call it a night. I was playing on a $10/$20 NL table with a $3 ante. I wind up losing a couple of little pots taking me down to about 6,670. The 23rd hand in i had AA. We raised up to about $400. The Flop came A 10 7. I bet he raised all in and i call leaving me with around $1200. He shows a set of sevens. I am happy at this point. the turn was a 3. Then the river came the case 7. That was the biggest downswing and the biggest loss in 1 hand i have ever lost. Just goes to show anything can happen in this game.

The number you're looking for is "standard deviation".