At what time to sit out and float ?

I'm just playing the razz limit freeroll on PS with roughly 9000 players.

First 88 get a ticket for round 2.

After 3 hours of solid playing I'm 23rd with 45K in chips.

Blinds are now level 15 (ante 400/2K/4K).

There are 145 Players left.

Any way figuring out whether I can float to the qualifing ?

Btw. there is no point in playing further than place 88 - there is no payout.

You have to outlast 57 players, each orbit takes 3,200 in antes + one bring in, don't know that that is , so your M is <15. Unless there are some very severely shortstacked players, then you will not make it by sitting out. Sitting out also encourages blind steals, and steals of your bring ins.

Thank you for calculating it.

I decided not to sit out - and got busted with 6,5,3,2,A vs the nuts.

No whining though, still got 5 spare tickets.

It's tough to really calculate though as there will be people who play and bust out like you eventually did. I suspect if you had sat out then there would have been enough of these to get you over the line. I'm always surprised at how many people decide they have to make a move as the bubble nears.

There is no doubt IMO that you would have had 6 spare tickets by now if you´d chosen to sitout.

Have played these freerolls many times and when in top 30 with 150 left it´s pretty safe to sitout, however it does encourage people to pick on your forced bets.

Just look at the maths...and it comes down to what tenbob said:
-Unless there are some very severely shortstacked players

There is always several shortstacked players in these tournaments: 9000players x 1,5k = 13.500k, 13.500k/145 players = 93k

In other words the AVG is 93k! but still grafkarow is in 23rd place with only half the AVG so as usual in these freerolls there is a lot of shortstack and more than one monsterstack

Never float.

Having said that, don't play stupidly either.

Unless you are in 1st place with over 150K chips at one of these and there is less than 20 to the ticket.

I also believe most assuredly you could have sat out from 23rd place. I've often been very surprised by my 'place' not changing much even though many folks are getting eliminated. When a larger stack than yours takes out a small one, your postion doesn't change. And when a middle stack becomes a larger one than yours, you move down one, but the stacks they will be taking out will not change your position. So, a very rough rule of thumb (erring on the side of caution) might be for every 2 eliminated you move down 1 spot - again, just a rough observation. So here, you probably had nothing to worry about if you were in less than 50th place or so, 40 - 45th to be super-safe.

and waiting is so passe. Althought such inactivity can acheive its own reward.

My rule of thumb is: (and it always worked so far)
You need to be in the first 40% of qualifiers when there are twice as many players as paid places left.

Here that would have been 35th or better / 176 players left.

Thanks for your anwers until now.
I know there is no glory in sitting out but I had pressing matters (work - not toilet). I posted this because I wasn't sure whether my rule of thumb was only running lucky...or if it's rather safe.
I would have probably sat out but as I got A,2,5 as a starting hand I wanted to have a look.Got 6 and 3 on fourth/fith street and pushed - opp rivered the wheel.

So how would that formula work (or how do you tweak it) when there are say 132 (88 + 44) people left (50% more people than spots)? I'm thinking between 40% & 100% you'd have to be in 70th percentile? 70% of 88, so roughtly 61st place. If that's sort of the formula, thinking my 50th place out of 145 is sorta close.

Anyway, I have 13 tickets that I've accumulated since Sept, (and they will get used after football is done ), so believe me, I know how painful it is sitting through the bubble process. They usually start hand-for-hand with 5 left to eliminate (maybe even 6 or 7 when the cut is 99?). And you are not waiting for 3 tables like at Full Tilt, you are waiting for 10 or 11 tables. To make matters worse, there is always someone who doesn't get the concept of hand-for-hand. And if he's not at your table, he's somewhere else gumming up the works. I've seen it take as long as 40 minutes. Even if I feel like playing after I make the cut, I'll usually sit that part out.

Yah, your rule is close to mine.

With "twice as many" I meant +100% not + 50%

I worked it out like this:

88 places "paid" - twice as many opp left (2x88=176)
88x0.40= 35 (fractions rounded down)
This would be the "point of safety".

Anyway - your rule works too I believe.

i know your agony you play your heart out and get bubble busted.

Understood you the first time. Was just wondering if is was like a formula and the way I applied it to 50% was correct. But thanks for the explanation.